[Justin7]

Early play (line is moving now): NY-1 (should be -5.5, and might be a best bet).

[Justin7]

This week's card is huge. Here's what else I like:
KC+19 (10)
CLE +5.5 (wrong team favored!)
DAL+3 (Pk)
Dal OV100 (Best Bet)
NY OV98.5
ARI+1 (again, wrong team favored)


1 or 2 writeups to follow when I'm done betting.

[Justin7]

I don't normally do 2 best bets in a week, but there are 2 that demand the "free ATM" status.

New York -1 (vs COB Destroyers) is a weekly best bet.

Once again, the linesmakers seem to be using season averages, instead of comparing how New York does with and without Garcia. Garcia is playing, and is one of the best QBs in the league. New York's offense has averaged over 56 points per game in the last 6 games, including 62 when these teams played last.

Columbus has one of the worst defense in the league - only Arizona allows more than its 8.1 yards per pass attempt. New York's prolific offense versus a soft-defense is a very bad matchup. While these two teams are technically in the same league, New York is a full class better than Columbus.

Dallas/Orlando OVER 98.5 is also a weekly best bet.

I almost never love bets on totals. The volatility is much higher than on spreads. Who wants a total decided by how many pick-6s there were, or whether or not there were enough net recovery TDs? Because of the volatility in scoring (with about 10 points per game from defense or kick returns/kr fumbles), half-points are only worth about 5 cents. A total has to be off a LOT to get a monster play. This game is one such monster play. I make the fair game 109.

Dallas has the goods to score. Dolezel has racked up a frightening 128 QB passer efficiency this season (although he missed a few games earlier. Dallas's defense has had a noted lack of scoring - whereas your average defense is scoring 5 points a game, Dallas's defense has averaged less than half that. Defensive scoring is extremely random - it has almost a 0 correlation to the team. This one factor skewed this total about 3 points too low.

Orlando is still without one of its DBs. Dallas is playing games with the reporting of injuries (as all teams do to a degree). One of its top DBs is listed as "probable" for this week after suffering a "significant injury"getting badly banged up last week. There is no way he's 75% likely to play, which is the requirement to be listed as probable. But even without injuries, I made this total at 106 before factoring in injuries, which is solid play on the over if no one is actually hurt. If the DBs don't play, all the better.

My 2 best bets this week are
Dallas/Orlando OVER 100
New York -1

[Justin7]

Edit - the opener on Dallas was 100, not 98.5.

[katstale]

4 posts in a row?? OK, I get it and I am on it. thnx.

[bigboydan]

BOL to you Justin

[frostno98]

KC +18.5 vs Philly souls seems like a good play tomorrow. Arena teams just doesn't have that shut down defense to cover a dog line that high.

[Justin7]

How the mighty have fallen... Phili, a 19 point opening fav, lost outright 54-47. Wow...

[pico]

nice start, justin

[Justin7]

That, and Cris offered KC+15 for the second half... Craziness!

[dwaechte]

Great start to the week Justin.

[Justin7]

Cha-ching! Best bets now 9-2, after Dallas game hits 108.

[frostno98]

Great write-ups Justin, playing that Dragon bet too!

[Justin7]

Adding to my card (but not a best bet): Chicago-5.5 This game opened at 8, and I made it 12, so I passed. Two handicappers came out on Utah, and their followers drove the game down to 5.5.

I don't normally like to bet against market moves unless I know what is causing it. While there are two sharp opinions on Utah at 8, nearly 14% of the games will land on 6, 7 or 8. In this case, the market has overreacted, and I'm taking Chicago-5.5.

[Justin7]

Damn, I hate losing. NY lost in part due to a "phantom field goal" - it was wide, but the home field refs missed it. Next year, they're using replay for FGs.

1-1 on Best bets (9-3 on the year), 4-4 for the week.

[pico]

justin, you did know chicago won the division last week. i doubt they have anything to play for against utah.

arizona barely covered for me. i got it at -3.5...they won by 4 pts.

[Justin7]

justin, you did know chicago won the division last week. i doubt they have anything to play for against utah.

arizona barely covered for me. i got it at -3.5...they won by 4 pts.

Yes, and they're playing after a short week of practice. And Utah had a net recovery... With the data I had, I'd make the same play under similar situations.

[SBR Lou]

Damn, I hate losing. NY lost in part due to a "phantom field goal" - it was wide, but the home field refs missed it. Next year, they're using replay for FGs.

1-1 on Best bets (9-3 on the year), 4-4 for the week.

Never seen you really blame the refs before.

[Justin7]

Never seen you really blame the refs before.

Refs are part of the game. The home team gets the benefit of the doubt more often than the visitor. It's just usually not this blatant. That one play didn't necessarily decide the game, since it was in the first half, but it certainly affects the dynamics of the game.

[pico]

Never seen you really blame the refs before.

you always blame the ref when the game end with the incorrect score