Will The Boston Celtics win a Road Game vs the Pistons?
Yes -190
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05-20-08 01:00 PM #1
Is this a good bet?
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05-20-08 01:02 PM #2
Why not take the celtics to win the series?
Originally Posted by WonTooManyBets
If celts win a road game, they win the series in 75%+ scenarios. Even if they dont, you can still win if they win all their home games. Furthermore, -150 is a lot better than -190.
So to answer your question. Thats an awful bet.
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05-20-08 01:03 PM #3
Celtics win one on the road and beat the pistons in 5.
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05-20-08 01:04 PM #4
I can get the Celtics to win the series at -135.
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05-20-08 01:04 PM #5
then why not take the celtics to win the series at -150? Originally Posted by gordon gekko
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05-20-08 01:04 PM #6
**** -190
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05-20-08 01:05 PM #7
Well, I'm pretty sure I explained above why you should bet it if its a lot less vig. -135 is out there now but when i placed it, i got -150. If you look at the numbers, this bet is much better than the prop. Originally Posted by WonTooManyBets
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05-20-08 01:06 PM #8
Plus why gamble against something that hasnt happened? Streaks are easier to ride than pick and guess when it ends.
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05-20-08 01:08 PM #9
A team has never won the NBA title without winning at least 3 games on the road during the playoffs. It is bound to happen sometime. Originally Posted by BigOrangeTitans
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05-20-08 01:08 PM #10
What happens if Celts win the series but just win all there games at home like what they have been doing?
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05-20-08 01:09 PM #11
Well, if you had been betting against this trend every time, you would be buried. If you followed it, you would be living on your own island. Originally Posted by WonTooManyBets
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05-20-08 01:09 PM #12
Thus why celts to win series at a lesser vig is the correct bet. Originally Posted by gordon gekko
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05-20-08 01:11 PM #13
I think the Pistons are a good team though and the Celtics haven't looked great so I'm not sold on the Celtics winning the series.
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05-20-08 01:16 PM #14
You could actually lock in near guaranteed profit(so long as the celts dont lose the series without winning one on the road) if you bet
No on the prop(+170) .62 units
Celts win series -135 1 unit
You could lock in .1 unit profit if only one bet wins. If both win, then its 2+ units per 1.62 units wagered.
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05-20-08 01:17 PM #15
So your telling me that you like the celtics to win on the road, but not the series? Originally Posted by WonTooManyBets
If they win 1 on the road, this series is over.
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05-20-08 01:19 PM #16
the question is, can the celtics win all their home games?
i would take no plus money
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05-20-08 03:01 PM #17
Based on my back of the envelope calculation assuming a 64.094% of Boston winning a given game at home and a 38.150% probability of winning on the road (determined from backing out of a 56.751% series win probability for Boston). I have the following outcome probabilities: Originally Posted by WonTooManyBets
Now if Boston wins in 4,5, or 6 games then they'll necessarilly have won at least 1 game on the road. So that's 5.979%+16.719%+13.186% = 35.884%.Code:Win In BOS DET Total 4 games 5.979% 4.932% 10.911% 5 games 16.719% 8.506% 25.226% 6 games 13.186% 18.122% 31.308% 7 games 20.866% 11.689% 32.555% Total 56.751% 43.249% 100.000%
If Boston wins in 7 then they'll necessarilly have won at least 1 game on the road provided they don't split perfectly. So that's 20.866%-64.094%4*61.850%3 = 16.873%.
Detroit wins in 5 -- Boston wins 1 on the road with probability 2*35.906%3*61.850%*38.150% = 2.184%.
Detroit wins in 6 -- Boston wins at least 1 on the road with probability 35.906%2 * 61.850% * 38.150% * ( 6*64.094%*61.850% + 38.150%*35.906%) = 7.652%
If Boston loses in 7 then they'll necessarilly have won at least 1 game on the road provided they don't split the first 6 games perfectly. So that's 11.689%-64.094%3*61.850%3*35.906%
= 9.452%.
So that would a total probability of Boston winning at least 1 on the road of 35.884% + 16.873% + 2.184% + 7.652% + 9.452% = 72.046%.
Hence, by this analysis, "Boston wins at least 1 game on the road" at -190 would qualify as an excellent bet (edge of 9.966%, full-Kelly stake of 18.933%).
Now admittedly this analysis is rather less than perfect, most notably because it assumes each team has a constant probability of winning at home and on the road. Nevertheless it does provide an objective and unemotional means of analyzing the value of this bet.
What we can say is that if we took the underlying assumptions as granted (Boston a 64.094% probability of winning any given game at home, a 56.751% probability of winning the series, and Detroit a constant probability of winning any given game at home) then we could conclude that the bet provided tremendous value.SBR Founder Join Date: 8/28/2005
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05-20-08 05:55 PM #18
I think that is a bad bet.
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05-20-08 06:07 PM #19
Out of curiosity, where do you feel my analysis breaks down? Originally Posted by flyingillini
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/28/2005
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