San Francisco Hosts the Astros:
Line:- Houston +115
- San Francisco -125
- Over/Under 8
Records:- San Francisco 16-23 – Over/Under 20-19
- Houston 22-17 – Over/Under 17-22
Trends:- Houston is 13-8 after a win
- Houston is 6-2 after 3 consecutive wins
- Houston is 8-6 when playing against a team with a losing record
- Houston is 6-2 when the total is 8 to 8.5
- Houston is 3-1 as a road dog of +100 to +125
- Houston is 11-11 on the road
- Houston is 9-1 in their last 10
- Houston is 17-13 against right-handed starters
- SF is 9-13 after a loss
- SF is 10-15 against teams with a winning record
- SF is 5-8 when the total is 8 to 8.5
- SF is 4-4 at home with a ML of -100 to -125
- SF is 10-10 at home
- SF has won 3 of their last 7
- SF is 11-17 against right-handed starters
Weather:
Tonight the weather will be around 69 degrees with a light 10mph wind blowing out from third base towards far right field.
Team vs. Team:
Recent Matchups:- 7-3 Houston
- 9-1 SF
- 4-2 SF
- 4-0 SF
- 2-1 SF
- 2-1 Houston
- 6-2 Houston
- 10-2 SF
- 14-3 SF
- 10-1 SF
Batter vs. Pitcher:
Winn and Rowand are each one for one against Backe, but this roster really hasn’t seen him much or had much success against him when they have. No one on the Giants has a HR off Brandon in 38 team Abs, but they’ve put the ball in play against him in 34 of those plate appearances. Dave Roberts has the most experience, and success, against the Astros starter but he is out tonight.
The Houston regulars really haven’t seen much of Matt Cain. Overall this roster is batting .271 against him with Kaz Matsui leading the way with six hits in 18 ABs. Lance is one for three with a HR off Cain and, predictably, this roster has only worked two walks against the wild right-hander.
Houston Pitching:
Brandon Backe has really struggled keeping runners off the bases this season; he has a WHIP over .1734 and is allowing 5.91 walks per nine. In road starts Brandon becomes slightly worse than pathetic; his road whip is over 2.00 and he has allowed 13 free passes in 19 innings. The Stros are 3-5 in Backe’s starts and the over has hit in three of those eight starts.
Backe is 1-0 in his last three appearances vs. San Fran. In those outings Brandon performed well in two of them, including a CG shutout of the Giants in May of 2005.
The Houston right-hander is giving up far too many LDs this season at 22.4% while allowing 1.48 HR/9. Backe is on a career pace with 7.17 K/9 but the walks are coming at an alarming rate of 5.91 per nine innings.
Brandon is throwing his fastball much less this year and his slider much more. Fastballs have only accounted for 53.4% of Backes pitches while sliders have been his choice 25% of the time. BB also throws a curve and a chance fairly regularly. Backe hasn’t thrown 100 pitches in any of his last 5 starts, but that shouldn’t be too big a problem as Roy Oswalt was able to save the pen last night.
Houston Bats:
The Stros are averaging 4.9 runs per contest which is impressive after the slow start they got off to. As a team Houston is batting .260, but that averages dips to .240 in road contests. Previously mentioned, Houston has been hot of late, the stats over their last seven games reads as follows: .300 BA, 5.7 runs per, and an OBP of .380. In 2008 the Astros have been good about not leaving guys on base and not hitting into double plays.
Lance Berkman has been the hottest hitter in the land over the last seven days batting a ridiculous .692 with three Home Runs. The switch hitter is seeing the ball well from both sides of the plate and he figures to be a tough out any time the Giants choose to pitch to him. Really, Pence, Lee, Tejada, and even Ausmus have been hot for the Stros, there is no reason to think they won’t find some success tonight.
San Francisco Pitching:
Big Matt Cain gets the nod tonight for the Giants. Cain has struggled a bit this season, but his numbers are well above average at home. Cain has a home ERA of 3.31, which is down over a run from his overall ERA, and he’s striking about as many batters as he is allowing hits to. Matt has really had problems with walks, which is nothing new for him but it’s certainly something the Giants are hoping he gets under control soon. San Fran is 3-5 in Cain’s starts this season and the total has split down the middle at 4-4.
Matt Cain has one previous start against Houston and that ended up being a loss. In that game Matt went five innings, allowed five hits, gave up three earned, and struck out eight.
In 2007 Matt Cain only allowed 16.1% LDs but this year that percentage is up to 23.1% which is obviously not what you want to see if you’re a Giants fan. Matt is giving up a decent amount of fly balls, but a large portion of those have been infield fly outs. The righty is walking 4.89 per nine innings while retiring 8.22 every nine via the strike out.
Cain is going to his DB four percent more often this year than he did last. The FB is his best pitch, but he’s been getting knocked around a bit as the batters are sitting on the pitch a bit more than they could last season. The Giants starter goes to his slider 10.2% of the time, his curve 7.9% and his change up 13.5%.
In his last outing Matt was really tuned up allowing 7 line drives is 6.1 IP. Matt showed good command throwing 74 strikes out of his 113 pitches, but the Pirates hit him hard and got to him for five earned. The right-hander has thrown 98 or more pitches in three of his last four appearances which is not really concerning; Cain can certainly handle the load.
San Francisco Bats:
The Giants have been dreadful at the plate over the course of the season, but they’ve performed pretty well in their last seven outings. On the season the Giants are only batting .257 and scoring 3.5 runs per, but they’ve upped that to .277 and 4.3 in their last weeks worth of games. San Fran doesn’t draw a lot of walks and they don’t hit many home runs; they’ll need to improve in each category if they want to finish this season near .500.
The hot bats in the Giants dugout belong to Bowker, Vizquel, Winn, Burriss, Rowand, and Castillo; this lineup has been playing better over the last week than they had all season. Five different Giants have homered in the last week and the outs for opposing pitchers are getting tougher to come by.
Injuries:
Houston- RHP Felipe Paulino Right arm 15-day DL (3/19)
- LHP Wandy Rodriguez Left groin 15-day DL (4/20)
San Francisco- RHP Kevin Correia Left oblique 15-day DL (4/27)
- 2B Ray Durham Right hamstring Day-to-Day
- 2B Kevin Frandsen Left heel 15-day DL (3/21); out for season
- LHP Noah Lowry Placed on the DL, retroactive to March 21, following left forearm surgery. He is due to resume throwing off a mound this week. He could return three or four weeks into the season. (4/22)
- OF Dave Roberts Had surgery on his left knee in order to reapair some damage. He is expected to miss up to 4 months. (4/22)
- LHP Erick Threets Chest 15-day DL (4/19)
Ball Park:
AT&T Park is known as a pitchers park and favors the fly ball guys. The outfield is big which means a decent number of hits get down, but not many balls leave the yard.
Umpire:
Tonight’s umpire is Gerry Davis. Davis is 4-4 on totals this season, but he was 23-12 in favor of the over in 2007. Three of his unders this season have featured a legitimate Cy young award candidate; Johan vs. Smoltz, Lincecum vs. Pineiro, and Carmona vs. Pettitte. The 4th under was Wakefield vs. Burnett and most of us know that the Blue Jays are an under team right now no matter who is behind the plate.
Bull Pen:
Houston – The Astros pen has been about average on the season maintaining a 3.91 ERA and a WHIP just over 1.35. This unit has given up 19 long balls, but it’s also shown the ability to get the strike out when needed which has been a plus. Overall this bullpen has performed worse on the road than they have at home, but they’ve converted a higher percentage of their save chances as visitors than they have as the home team.
San Francisco – The Giants pen isn’t impressive in any way. They aren’t the worst pen in the league, but they aren’t a group that’s going to scare the Houston bats if they’re called upon. SF has an era over 4.25 in their home games and a 5-4 record in those contests.
Line moves:
This line has moved in each direction and currently sits about 3 cents in favor of the Giants in comparison with where it started.
My thoughts:
Houston is one of the hottest teams in baseball right now and they show no signs of slowing down. The Astros bats are raking and their bullpen got some rest after Oswalt was able to go eight last night. Gerry Davis is behind the plate and though he’s been even this season on totals, last year his games went over far more often than they did under. Cain and Backe are both wild, but these two teams rank last in the NL in walks. In addition to the fact that the Astros’ bats have been hot, the Giants’ bats have been as warm as ever over the last week. Brandon Backe has discovered the ability to get the strike out this year and the Giants seem like as good a team as any to carry on that successa against; The Giants are second worst in the NL in K’s per nine at 7.3.
Pick:
Tonight I have two selections on this game.
Houston +113
Over 8
Write up: Houston @ San Francisco
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