If someone wins at a 60% clip for 1000 plays, is it safe to assume.........

MadCapper · 05-09-2008, 12:28 PM

If someone wins at a 60% clip for 1000 plays, is it safe to assume that he will likely win no less than 55% percent of his next 1000 plays?

MadCapper · 05-09-2008, 12:58 PM

Or do you need need a larger sample size?

Nicky Santoro · 05-09-2008, 01:13 PM

no one will ever hit 60% over 1000 plays.. it's virtually impossible. unless they're betting into opinionated books who play around with their lines, or beating very slow moving books who don't move lines quickly enough and are getting 2 to 3 pts better on every game. but playing into real lines, no one will hit 60% over 1000 games. It's a pretty large enough sample size.

but when betting into real lines, i would say 1 in 25,000 bettors will go 600-400 over 1,000 games. and over 20,000 games, not one bettor will go 12,000-8000 (60%).. they would have a better chance at winning the power ball lottery 3 times over.

mofome · 05-09-2008, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nicky Santauro

no one will ever hit 60% over 1000 plays.. it's virtually impossible. unless they're betting into opinionated books who play around with their lines, or beating very slow moving books who don't move lines quickly enough and are getting 2 to 3 pts better on every game. but playing into real lines, no one will hit 60% over 1000 games. It's a pretty large enough sample size.

but when betting into real lines, i would say 1 in 25,000 bettors will go 600-400 over 1,000 games. and over 20,000 games, not one bettor will go 12,000-8000 (60%).. they would have a better chance at winning the power ball lottery 3 times over.

What about pavy?

MadCapper · 05-09-2008, 01:20 PM

Nick,

Thanx for the speech

But you didn't answer my question.

All I asked was IF someone does..........

Thanx in advance.

Nicky Santoro · 05-09-2008, 01:22 PM

who's pavy and what did he do? i hope you boys are not going to tell me he hit 60% over 1000 games?

if you want to hit 60% consistently, it's really easy. all you have to do is this..

If BOS is -5, get them early at BOS -2.5..

If S.A is -8, bet them at S.A. -5.5..

If you are capable of doing this and you can beat the closing line by 2.5 pts, i assure you you will hit very close to 60%

Nicky Santoro · 05-09-2008, 01:29 PM

maddy,

of course if you can hit 60% over 1000 games, then you should have no problem hitting 60% consistently, but the problem is, it's virtually impossible. it's like me asking, if i can pick up 25 hot girls in one day and bang each one of them, will i be a playboy.. of course, but i can never do this, so why mention it. it's just a fantasy.. 60% over 1000 games is impossible, like i said, unless you are beating lines left and right.

why don't you try for 54%.. you can make a great living hitting 54%.. all you have to do is if Bos is -4.5, try to find a bos -3.5.. it's much easier to do this than to try to hit 60%.

or if you want to hit 56%, if bos is -5.5, bet the game at bos -4.. if you can beat the closing line by 1.5 pts, you can easily hit 56%.. each 1 pt in nba is worth very close to 4%.

capitalist pig · 05-09-2008, 01:30 PM

I learned a long time ago, IMO nothing is safe to assume.

later

MadCapper · 05-09-2008, 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nicky Santauro

maddy,

of course if you can hit 60% over 1000 games, then you should have no problem hitting 60% consistently, but the problem is, it's virtually impossible. it's like me asking, if i can pick up 25 hot girls in one day and bang each one of them, will i be a playboy.. of course, but i can never do this, so why mention it. it's just a fantasy.. 60% over 1000 games is impossible, like i said, unless you are beating lines left and right.

why don't you try for 54%.. you can make a great living hitting 54%.. all you have to do is if Bos is -4.5, try to find a bos -3.5.. it's much easier to do this than to try to hit 60%.

or if you want to hit 56%, if bos is -5.5, bet the game at bos -4.. if you can beat the closing line by 1.5 pts, you can easily hit 56%.. each 1 pt in nba is worth very close to 4%.

Thanx NICK.

I know I will never hit 600 out of 1000. But I am sure someone can.

I dont have to hit 60% or even 55% to make money because I play a lot of mlb and tennis underdogs.

durito · 05-09-2008, 02:16 PM

I can guarantee you I can hit 60% on a 1,000 plays.

* you all might want to mention what type of odds you are talking about.

Nicky Santoro · 05-09-2008, 02:20 PM

durito, good one.

i know exactly what you are saying.

if all your 1000 picks are -160.. then you should hit 60% with no problem

if all of your 1000 picks are -210/+190, then you will hit 66% over 1000 games..

if all of your 1000 games are -330/+270, then you will hit 75% on your 1000 games.

so as you see maddy, you can hit 60% over 1000 games..

MadCapper · 05-09-2008, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nicky Santauro

durito, good one.

i know exactly what you are saying.

if all your picks are -160.. then you should hit 60% with no problem

if all of your 1000 picks are -210/+190, then you will hit 66% over 1000 games..

if all of your 1000 games are -330/+270, then you will hit 75% on your 1000 games.

so as you see maddy, you can hit 60% over 1000 games..

moneyline dogs, sides, and totals at -107.

No bigger moneyline favs.

Nicky Santoro · 05-09-2008, 02:25 PM

if you are playing ML underdogs, then how do you expect to hit 60% over 1000 games? all you need to do is hit around 43%-47% to make a great profit.

and if you are betting dogs at +200, all you will need is 34% to make a decent living.

you wanted to hit 60% playing dogs?? are you nuts or what? it's impossible doing it with favs, how do you expect to do it with dogs.

MadCapper · 05-09-2008, 02:30 PM

Nick,

No. I asked IF someone does hit 60% WITHOUT betting on big moneyline favorites over 1000 games, can we assume he will hit at that pace for the next 1000.

Or will he (however impossible it was to do) drop down to around 50%?

durito · 05-09-2008, 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MadCapper

Nick,

No. I asked IF someone does hit 60% WITHOUT betting on big moneyline favorites over 1000 games, can we assume he will hit at that pace for the next 1000.

Or will he (however impossible it was to do) drop down to around 50%?

You'd be safe to assume nothing.

Nevertheless, the probability of hitting 600 or more wins out of 1,000 bets (assuming coin flips, ie 50% win chance) is .0000000136423%

All this says, however, is that his past results were very likely not the result of chance. It says nothing about what will happen in the future.

LT Profits · 05-09-2008, 02:57 PM

MadCapper,

I don't think ANYONE can hit 60% over 1000 plays without betting big ML favorites. It is physically impossible.

MadCapper · 05-09-2008, 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LT Profits

MadCapper,

I don't think ANYONE can hit 60% over 1000 plays without betting big ML favorites. It is physically impossible.

I agree its near impossible.

But if someone SOMEHOW does....

What can we expect from his next 1000 plays?

I would think this guy has some special talent to do something like this. It cant be all luck.