[Justin7]

My best bet is New York -3.5 vs Los Angeles

QBs usually have the most trouble on their first outing. For this reason, you often see lower offense in week 1 (when all QBs are having their first game), and when new QBs start. This is more the case this year, with the easing of rules on the Jack linebacker.

New York's offense sputtered in week 1. Then Garcia got hurt, giving Davey a few starts. Then Garcia came back. In the first 5 games (where no QB started their offense in 3 consecutive games), they averaged only 35 points per game, which is far below what Garcia can do.

Garcia came back into the lineup against Dallas. Since that start, their offense has gotten back on track, averaging almost 58 points per game. This is not that unusual for one of the league's premier QBs (Garcia has a passer rating of 116 this year, as well as his average for his 15 year carreer).

On the defensive side, New York has quietly climbed to the #3 defense in points allowed at 42.8 per game (behind #1 Dallas and #2 Chicago). This is not the usual "points allowed" - this excludes scores by special teams and defense, which tend to be very luck based.

While LAA's offense has been inconsistent, its defense has been very consistent - consistently bad. It has allowed 55.2 points per game (only Utah and Kansas City allow more than 56 points). After starting at 2-0, reality sent it to 2-6 in the next 8 games.

I make the fair line New York -8.5. I'll take them at -3.5 as this week's Arena best bet.

[HedgeHog]

NY is one of the teams I'm on this week. I'm sure Justin is aware of the huge disparity in strength of conferences in Arena play. The National Conference is 16 games better than the American Conference--where only Chicago has a winning record! I started looking at this last week and went 2-0 with Orlando and Tampa. This week 3 Nat'l teams face weaker American foes. They are:

New York (vs LA)
Columbus (vs KC)
Dallas (vs GR)

[picoman]

nice to see you finally picked a slight fav. i think i'll get on this early before the line moves

[picoman]

damn, too late already. the line is already at -4.5

Sat 5/10 113 New York Dragons -4.5 -105 OVER 111.5 -104
07:30 PM 114 Los Angeles Avengers +4.5 -105 UNDER 111.5 -106

[picoman]

you wise guys moved the line for a whole pt

05/07/2008 1:30PM: -4 -105 / +4 -105 Opener
05/07/2008 1:31PM: -3.5 -107 / +3.5 -103
05/08/2008 12:17PM: -3.5 -115 / +3.5 +105
05/08/2008 12:18PM: -4.5 -105 / +4.5 -105

[Justin7]

I'd pass at 6 (or play with a more responsible unit size), but 5.5 would still be a play for me.

[SexyMit]

I just took it at -4 hope this cashes cause I know nothing about arena football but I see Justin does so I am going to follow him as I don't know your record on your bets couldn't find it but I hope its good enough.

[picoman]

i just find it interesting that justin post the thread on 12:17PM, and the line jumped on 12:17PM.

i think they'll cover easy just based on the line move.

[Justin7]

These are much smaller plays, but the rest of my card:
Col/Utah UND119
GRR/DAL OV100
GA+5x
Col+1x

Sorry, but the numbers are getting crashed

[HedgeHog]

bump.

[Justin7]

NY wins by 4. Originators and line shoppers cover or push, everyone else loses.

For the record, that's 3 times a "best bet" was decided by your line shopping skill.

7-2 on the year now if you can get the number.

[Justin7]

And Georgia covers, although it was a tough game.

Dang, I hate being right all the time!

[durito]

Nice job Justin.