[5 star bomb]

Guys I have figured it out.... You can beat 1 game. But you Can not win in gambling in the longrun. And if you do its not worth the amount of time you put in. I am thinking about changing to betting ONLY March Madness, NFL here and there, and MLB playoffs. If you bet everyday you will LOSE

[imgv94]

Yeah dude I feel ya..

I'm always going to bet NFL,CFB,CBB and Horses til the day I die.. Other sports doubt it.. But definitely feel ya bud

[buztah]

5star, you can't phucken win dat com! Only spot bettors have a chance. We day to day action junkies simply will never finish ahead. In the odd chance one of us actually dies having won more overall than we lost said won amount would fade in comparison to the cash that one would have made had he not gambled but worked all those hours at a minumum wage job. Gambling is a disease, a huge waste of money and and even bigger waste of time.

[Reload]

Like I have heard before in the horse racing world - "You can beat a race but you can't beat the races"

[mofome]

you'd have to bet so many games to offset the amount of luck involved in baseball to truly think that the breaks ended up 'even' overall. some get the good ones, some get the bad ones, but i doubt many truly end up all square in a given season.



last night a guy scores the tying run on me after striking out. that's interesting.

[DrunkenLullaby]

Originally Posted by 5 star bomb

Guys I have figured it out.... You can beat 1 game. But you Can not win in gambling in the longrun. And if you do its not worth the amount of time you put in. If you bet everyday you will LOSE

Good to know. Thanks for the tip!

[mofome]

Originally Posted by DrunkenLullaby

Good to know. Thanks for the tip!

DL, i heard that if you fade the pac-10 in every out of conference game, you can make a lot of money. what do you think of that theory?

[DrunkenLullaby]

Originally Posted by mofome

DL, i heard that if you fade the pac-10 in every out of conference game, you can make a lot of money. what do you think of that theory?

I think that you can probably make more money doing that than as a comedian.

[mofome]

Originally Posted by DrunkenLullaby

I think that you can probably make more money doing that than as a comedian.

class clown 1998

[bettilimbroke999]

Day to day sports bettors are doomed, if you are not spot betting you are in all likelihood losing, that's just the way it is somethings will never change, think about the Cav backers in game 1 now all want to take Bos -8.5 and that's after Lebron played worst in his career and Cavs almost won the game lol, flip a coin and hope cappers.

[DrunkenLullaby]

Originally Posted by bettilimbroke999

Day to day sports bettors are doomed, if you are not spot betting you are in all likelihood losing, that's just the way it is somethings will never change,

Again, good to know.

Mo, how much does a class clown make per annum? I gotta give up this sports thing now that the brain trust sez its impossible.

[MonkeyF0cker]

I almost never include a coin flip as part of my capping process. Silly me. I knew I was doing something wrong...

[MonkeyF0cker]

By the way, I'd take the Cavs and the over if I were going to bet it. It'll end 98-92 Celtics tonight. But I bet very few NBA playoff games. Very hard to find an edge...

[mofome]

Originally Posted by DrunkenLullaby

Again, good to know.

Mo, how much does a class clown make per annum? I gotta give up this sports thing now that the brain trust sez its impossible.

Mo makes whatever he desires making.

[ChuteBoxe]

I disagree with that 150%. In brief paragraph form...You will have your peaks and valley's if you bet every day, but if you're good enough with math, money management, correctly interpreting line movement, and how you factor in different emotional factors, mixed in with a little bit of balls, you can win every single year. Shit, I've won at least +40 units for the past 5 years in every single sport. I was even down 40 units in the NBA, at one point this year. I'm far from a genius brother, and I have horrible luck, so if I can get the job done, I'm sure you can. Me and Dio were talking about how it's extremely possible the other night. I'm sure he'll have some good info to add.

[rjt721]

I would change the title of the thread to, "You can't beat one game, but you can win in the long run."

[Cannon]

If you go to a site that has people win you can win but not getting losing info from this losing site.

[ChuteBoxe]

Originally Posted by Cannon

If you go to a site that has people win you can win but not getting losing info from this losing site.

Am I reading this wrong, or did you write this wrong? I'm taking it as... "You cannot win at long-term sports gambling/investing, unless you follow someone elses ideas and/or daily picks." ???

[diogee]

Too many of these damn threads...why even wager on sports if you cannot win long term? I am new to this so I cannot say anything about winning long term but things are going pretty good right now. Seems to me it is possible to win if you thoroughly handicap the games. Just my thoughts from what I have experienced thus far.

[pico]

to do it consistently is very hard to do. very few can win in the long run. wager only what you can afford to lose is my motto.

[BrUno0]

Although I have little experience with sports betting, as I just started, I will share some of my thoughts.

First thing I would like to compare sports betting with is poker, and don't get me wrong, most poker players are losers just like sports bettors, but theirs probably many more long term winners in poker than in sports betting. I am a winning poker player, though I've blown most of my winnings on blow, hookers, and other forms of gambling (joking, most money was blown on other gambling, etc). With that said, the reason I compare the two, is because poker you look for a hand with value most times, or implied odds, as well as how much money is in the pot, which will determine your calling and raising ranges. Pretty much, you look for spots that would be +EV, meaning expected value. Sports betting, in my opinion, is very similar. What I'm getting at is, I feel the best way to make your plays is by line movement and line shopping, finding an edge that way is one of the biggest edges you can have. I always want to find a significant factor in my picks for a game, weather it be an injury, i feel the line is off, inside tip, trend play, or statistics. What ever it may be, I always want to find something, which in my opinion is similar to poker.

If you're a poker player, than you must understand what I'm saying. Like, for instance, when you see a guy with 1500 chips, 10/20 blinds, make a random raise with 85 of hearts, and bluff his entire stack off, you know that guy is really bad, and his play proves it. Betting every sport game, sort of reminds me of just that, ya know? Like just betting to get action (which is fine, but is obviously not very profitable in the long run) When you see a sharp line, or you can see the game going either way, line is even, game is even, etc. Just sit it out, if I don't see a decent enough edge in a game, i won't really attempt to bet it, unless I need action, which sometimes I do myself, and it's really all about discipline. Poker and Sports Betting are very reliant on picking your spots, picking good spots, where your money is warranted.

[LT Profits]

Originally Posted by 5 star bomb

Guys I have figured it out.... You can beat 1 game. But you Can not win in gambling in the longrun. And if you do its not worth the amount of time you put in. I am thinking about changing to betting ONLY March Madness, NFL here and there, and MLB playoffs. If you bet everyday you will LOSE

FALSE! I you only bet +EV bets, you are costing yourself money by not betting everyday. On the flip side, if you bet more on feel and instinct, then not only would I tend to agree with you, but I'd go so far as to say don't bet at all.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Wouldn't it be nice if you could bluff in sports betting like you can in poker...

[pico]

Originally Posted by MonkeyF0cker

Wouldn't it be nice if you could bluff in sports betting like you can in poker...

you can definitely do that with a lot of money. in vegas, i've heard some syndicate first try to create the impression that they're trying to move the line one side, and as soon as people start to pile money on with them, they hit the other side hard acrosss the books with nice odds.

[jjgold]

1. Books do not want spot bettors, they want daily bettors
2. Of the few that win..the majority bet both sides to the game or middle so they do not gamble to turn a profit.
3. If you bet everyday you have a 98% chance to lose.

[BrUno0]

Originally Posted by MonkeyF0cker

Wouldn't it be nice if you could bluff in sports betting like you can in poker...

Billy Walters.....

[Stacocakes]

5 star, who's that girl in your avatar?amazing

[topgame85]

98% lose in all gambling and 2% win some do win long term just not many

[frostno98]

Yeah, the smartest thing to do is know how much you want to win for that entire month. For me, winning 4k to 8k per month is cool. So instead of betting hundred of games per month, just be patient and find that one lock pick of the month, drop all you got on it and call it month, until next month and you start all over again.

Sports betting similar to a baseball hitter and a basketball jumper shooter, when your hot your hot and when not your not your not.

[Hellerud]

All you ppl that lose a killing in the long run simply fade your selections i know its very hard to do... but trust me i have had many ppl do that aand it worked.. but thats the ppl that simply hit 40 percent of their plays and turn it around and hit around 55... just a thought.. its hard to do though.. cause u see those games where you are like AHH THATS PEFECT I IM ALL IN! hahaha but just stay diciplined and u will be fine... These days its not about how much you win its about losing as little as possible...

[imgv94]

Originally Posted by ChuteBoxe

I disagree with that 150%. In brief paragraph form...You will have your peaks and valley's if you bet every day, but if you're good enough with math, money management, correctly interpreting line movement, and how you factor in different emotional factors, mixed in with a little bit of balls, you can win every single year. Shit, I've won at least +40 units for the past 5 years in every single sport. I was even down 40 units in the NBA, at one point this year. I'm far from a genius brother, and I have horrible luck, so if I can get the job done, I'm sure you can. Me and Dio were talking about how it's extremely possible the other night. I'm sure he'll have some good info to add.

contradictive

[imgv94]

Originally Posted by diogee

Too many of these damn threads...why even wager on sports if you cannot win long term? I am new to this so I cannot say anything about winning long term but things are going pretty good right now. Seems to me it is possible to win if you thoroughly handicap the games. Just my thoughts from what I have experienced thus far.

wow dude.. just wow

[diogee]

Just saying IMGV...new to this but what is the point if you don't feel you can win over time? With all of these threads it is no wonder why there is so much negativity...nobody feels it is possible to win so why put forth the effort to try? Better off just picking random games by the way so many make it sound. Trust me I have been there and that is not at all the way to go. Even if they do win short time certain posters find a way to cut them down and say it was just "luck" and there is no way to keep it up. Had a terrible day in bases myself and a little bit of alcohol...this is in no way a personal attack on you. I imagine that most posters get tired of seeing this all the time...matched with Cannon's "I have never saw so many broke dick gamblers" thread that he does every few days. GL with your plays bro I am off to bed.

[ChuteBoxe]

Originally Posted by imgv94

contradictive

Not really, there's a difference between hard work, and luck. Rake even pointed it out. When I win, it always comes down to the last few seconds, or I'm on the game that loses by a screw job call that's talked about online after the game, and even by the announcers. I also suck at lottery tickets. Trust me, I have bad luck.