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  1. #1

    Question What odds do you think Big Brown is going to be in the Preakness?

    El Gato Malo will skip Preakness

    By JAY PRIVMAN
    El Gato Malo is out of consideration for the 133rd Preakness Stakes on May 17, Recapturetheglory is still on the fence, and Riley Tucker might join the cast. Those were the significant developments Tuesday regarding the second leg of the Triple Crown, in which Big Brown will be a heavy favorite following his powerful victory in the Kentucky Derby last Saturday.

    El Gato Malo has not raced since finishing fifth as the favorite in the Santa Anita Derby on April 5. On Tuesday, trainer Craig Dollase said he and Terry Finley, the head of the West Point Thoroughbreds partnership that owns El Gato Malo, decided to instead run this Saturday in the Grade 3, $400,000 Lone Star Derby. Lone Star's 1 1/16-mile distance, compared to the 1 3/16 miles of the Preakness, was among the points in its favor, Dollase said.

    "He's proven at that distance," Dollase said. "This will be his first time shipping and the first time he'll race on conventional dirt. We're throwing a couple of new things at him. It just looks like a good spot. I want to give him a chance. If he takes to the dirt, it opens up new opportunities. Plus, being a gelding, I want him to have a long, long career. I'd love to be running him as an 8-year-old."

    Finley said: "If he were a colt and eventually a stallion, we probably would be headed to the Preakness."

    Recapturetheglory, like Big Brown, has remained at Churchill Downs since the Derby, in which Recapturetheglory finished fifth. Louie Roussel, who trains and is the co-owner of Recapturetheglory, on Tuesday said he was still weighing whether to run in the $1 million Preakness. He said one of his options is the Grade 2, $300,000 Ohio Derby on May 31 at Thistledown.

    "That gives him a little more time," Roussel said.

    Recapturetheglory lost his composure in the paddock at Churchill Downs, then threw jockey E.T. Baird while coming through the tunnel to the track, thus delaying the arrival of the final three Derby runners for the post parade. Preakness runners saddle on the turf course at Pimlico, which Roussel finds alluring.

    "They saddle in the open there, which is a big advantage," Roussel said. "He had a terrible problem in the paddock. Was it worth 11 lengths? Hell no. But he was lunging, throwing the rider off. He tried to throw himself on the ground. He left his race in the paddock. That would take a lot out of any horse."

    Roussel also believes that getting post 18, which forced Recapturetheglory to race wide, inhibited his ability to finish closer to Big Brown.

    "I'd love to get a better post where he's not three or four wide," Roussel said.

    Recapturetheglory was also among the nominees announced Tuesday for the $100,000 Barbaro Stakes on the Preakness undercard. Besides Big Brown, Recapturetheglory is the only Derby runner under consideration for the Preakness. Citation in 1948 was the last Derby winner to not face any other Derby runners in the Preakness.

    Roussel won the Preakness 20 years ago with Risen Star.

    In addition to Big Brown, the only other confirmed Preakness starters are Behindatthebar, Giant Moon, Kentucky Bear, Stevil, Tres Borrachos, and Yankee Bravo. Trainer Nick Zito said John Velazquez would ride Stevil, who finished fourth most recently in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.

    In addition to Recapturetheglory, those listed as possible for the Preakness are Harlem Rocker, Macho Again, and Riley Tucker, who finished third to Behindatthebar most recently in the Lexington Stakes. Edgar Prado has the mount on Riley Tucker, according to Pimlico's publicity department.

    Macho Again won the Derby Trial in his last start April 26. He is also under consideration for the Ohio Derby, Finley said.

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  2. #2

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    I think Big Brown will be 1/5 possibly 2/5..

    Big Brown is likely to have less than 9 rivals.

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  3. #3

  4. #4

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    1/5

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  5. #5

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    Lets say he is 2/5 or 1/5 there will be A LOT of bridgejumpers.

  6. #6

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    so low that won't be any value on him... I'd be looking at longshots or passing on the race...
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  7. #7

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cannon View Post
    even
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  8. #8

  9. #9

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    1-5 Preakness. Even in the Belmont where he will get beat.

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by dodif View Post
    even? i wish
    And Cannon says he is the bright one.
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  11. #11

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    He will open at 1/9 then drift to 1/5 by the time the horses are in the post parade. You could see 2/5 but its doubtful.

  12. #12

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    Quote Originally Posted by imgv94 View Post
    I think Big Brown will be 1/5 possibly 2/5..

    Big Brown is likely to have less than 9 rivals.
    I'd go with 2/5 and I agree completely with the 9 rivals. Wonder how many will be left for the Belmont?

  13. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sportsgirl View Post
    I'd go with 2/5 and I agree completely with the 9 rivals. Wonder how many will be left for the Belmont?
    You are one intelligent lady
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  14. #14

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    Don't know about the Preakness, but I'll make Big Brown about 2/5 to win the presidency.



  15. #15

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    Quote Originally Posted by ritehook View Post
    Don't know about the Preakness, but I'll make Big Brown about 2/5 to win the presidency.


    racist.


  16. #16

  17. #17

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    The Preakness he'll likely win. It's the Belmont where they often stumble.

    I hope he loses one of the remaining TC races. Becuase he's up against a very weak crop of 3 year olds. Unless one of the good European horses that are used to the wide sweeps on the turns that the Belmont routers are famous for, this untested animal will break the 30 year streak, undeservedly.

    No SG, the term is now, courtesy of the kerster, "racist snot."

  18. #18

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    Tomcito should fit well at the Belmont if he runs

  19. #19

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    Quote Originally Posted by ritehook View Post
    The Preakness he'll likely win. It's the Belmont where they often stumble.

    I hope he loses one of the remaining TC races. Becuase he's up against a very weak crop of 3 year olds. Unless one of the good European horses that are used to the wide sweeps on the turns that the Belmont routers are famous for, this untested animal will break the 30 year streak, undeservedly.

    No SG, the term is now, courtesy of the kerster, "racist snot."
    Hard to say undeservedly if he wins it . He had a terrible post in the Florida Derby and won easily and again in the Kentucky Derby. It is one thing to win but with the ease he is doing it is pretty impressive.
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  20. #20

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    Right. He looks good, but a 50th ranked heavyweight is going to look good against the out-of-shape beer guzzlers on this forum, if they got into the same ring.

    Go back 30 years (yeah, I was around and adult then, groan) and to the battles that the great Affirmed (last TC winner,I think) had with his terrific rival Alydar. The latter would likely smoke all these, prob including BB.

    We really don't know how good this horse really is, due to the lame caliber of his competition. I mean, the horse that ran second to him was a filly, facing males for the first time. Ran second, and was so unsound that she broke both lower legs and had to be put down.

    So far, except for BB, the current crop of 3 yos are not racehorses, but three-legged plow horses. If there's nothing better out there, UPS wins in a virtual walkover. Which proves nothing.

  21. #21

  22. #22

  23. #23

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    What will it pay for him to show?

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  24. #24

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    Time will tell , he could prove you wrong in a couple of years racing against older horses.
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  25. #25

  26. #26

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    Quote Originally Posted by moses millsap View Post
    What will it pay for him to show?
    $2.10
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  27. #27

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    Just like Europe is ahead of us by banning "frankenfood," genetically-modified produce and animals, so too are they more advanced re banning race day medication - including bute and lasix (this latter often masks illegal drugs).

    The problems of the modern thoroughbred is bad breeding - one of the three "foundation sires" (Matchem, I think, definitely not Eclipse) was a bleeder.

    And the breeding techniques of the US racehorse industry (and yes,it is an industry, like a factory) are criminal - they should be arrested. Animal abuse.

  28. #28

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    Quote Originally Posted by pokernut9999 View Post
    $2.10
    Ok, nevermind. Doesn't sound good at all.

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  29. #29

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    Quote Originally Posted by pokernut9999 View Post
    Time will tell , he could prove you wrong in a couple of years racing against older horses.
    Of course, who knows how good he really is? If he wins the TC, I'll then be interested to see how he does vs older horses, like maybe in the Haskell, and surely in the fall, the Breeders Cup.

    Right now, he's overhyped. By the industry, by NBC, who can hike their ad rates dramaically for the Belmont, if BB is undfeated going into the Belmont.

    Amusing to see the guys here considering show bets on the fave. (BTW, most offshore books will not pay off on a show bet if there is a minus pool in that slot - better check, gents)

    Heavy show bettors on odds-on favorites are known around the track as "bridge jumpers." I'll let you guess why.

  30. #30

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    I think when you hear a jockey and trainer hype him it is more credible than the media.
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  31. #31

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    Quote Originally Posted by ritehook View Post
    Of course, who knows how good he really is? If he wins the TC, I'll then be interested to see how he does vs older horses, like maybe in the Haskell, and surely in the fall, the Breeders Cup.

    Right now, he's overhyped. By the industry, by NBC, who can hike their ad rates dramaically for the Belmont, if BB is undfeated going into the Belmont.

    Amusing to see the guys here considering show bets on the fave. (BTW, most offshore books will not pay off on a show bet if there is a minus pool in that slot - better check, gents)

    Heavy show bettors on odds-on favorites are known around the track as "bridge jumpers." I'll let you guess why.

    Derby winners are usually overhyped, but Big Brown deserves all the hype he's gettin. Not only is he is undefeated but he's also untested. Agree 100% about the weak fields he's faced but it's not like he's beating these bad fields by noses and heads he's KILLING THEM.

    His hype is deserved. This is the best chance for a Triple Crown winner that I've witnessed and boy does the horse racing industry need this. Anything to put horse racing positively in the limelight is fine by me. Big Brown has yet to be challenged..

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  32. #32

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    Big Brown should annihilate the Preakness/Belmont fields but I just have a bad feeling. I think Real Quiet was our best shot for a while, sad thing is he was DQ'ed anyways.

  33. #33

  34. #34

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    Big Brown at -350 at Bodog to win the Preakness.

  35. #35

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    Quote Originally Posted by donjuan View Post
    Big Brown at -350 at Bodog to win the Preakness.
    Great bet right now. He will be no higher than 1/5 (-400).

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