[Pistol Pete]

Expecting Ganch or anyone who is good with math to help me out here. There are 20 horses in this yrs race. I was wondering how much it would be to bet a $1 superfecta with every possible combination?

[Pistol Pete]

wow was not thinking it was that much. this was a few yrs back so I may be wrong but think I asked the book something about doing it and they said like couple grand, I could be wrong.

[Pistol Pete]

then again you could be right as I was last yr payout for superfecta was $865,000

[cobra_king]

Maybe you were thinking of 'keying' a horse ontop and using all combinations underneath. In that case it would be $5814 (Key horse to win, 19x18x17 for the other 3 positions)

[Pistol Pete]

yea it was 10 cent. looking around hard to find limit that low. I even called the local track and they have $1 min. Not bad if you think about it. On ten cent if you risk 116 have a 1% chance of winning. Last yr would have on $86,500. Not bad odds, oh well was just messing around seeing what I could do.

[rsigley]

i know churchill got rid of the 10 cent superfecta for today/tomorrow because they don't want them clogging up the machines and windows

guessing the same for the derby

[HedgeHog]

yea it was 10 cent. looking around hard to find limit that low. I even called the local track and they have $1 min. Not bad if you think about it. On ten cent if you risk 116 have a 1% chance of winning. Last yr would have on $86,500. Not bad odds, oh well was just messing around seeing what I could do.

Try handicapping the race--at least 10 horses have no to little chance. A Super then cost: 10x9x8x7 = $5040 (a far cry from 116K). For 10c Supers, it's just $504.

[pokernut9999]

5dimes has .25 superfecta's

[pokernut9999]

Best horses in the world have no chance of even getting 4th??? Questionable logic my friend very questionable and probably why they have been known to have 900k payouts on superfectas.

We do not agree on much, but here I will agree with you

[HedgeHog]

Best horses in the world have no chance of even getting 4th??? Questionable logic my friend very questionable and probably why they have been known to have 900k payouts on superfectas.

These aren't the best horses in the "World". Not even the best 20 in the US. Get real. Maybe someone can read the racing form to you.

[pokernut9999]

What has been the average payout on the supers on the Derby ?

[HedgeHog]

Alright idiot best three year-old horses in the world, I apologize for not being specific enough for your empty brain. If you think that only half these horses can finish in the top 4 then you are a complete moron, I hope someone can read ANYTHING to you. I might agree that only 10 horses can WIN the derby but place in the top 4 c'mon man you can't be that dumb.

You support Boxing 20 horses in a Super? And you call me an idiot?

[pokernut9999]

Just read that the last 10 years the $1 super has averaged $104,000.

So if we can just took the top 10 horses the last 10 years we would have cleared quite a bit of money.

[topgame85]

read the signature any horse has a chance in any race crazy things happen in that sport

[HedgeHog]

Just read that the last 10 years the $1 super has averaged $104,000.

So if we can just took the top 10 horses the last 10 years we would have cleared quite a bit of money.

Is that for a $2 Super or $1 Super. I don't know, but I ask the question because I'm an idiot.

[pokernut9999]

Is that for a $2 Super or $1 Super. I don't know, but I ask the question because I'm an idiot.

Handicapping the 2008 Kentucky Derby


Derby Fever is on the rise ... the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby is scheduled for the 1st Saturday in May.

This year's Kentucky Derby is shaping up to be a Wide Open race with NO big standout horses!!

When there are no standout runners in a race, the chances of seeing major upsets with longshot runners is very, very high!

This is especially true with a full field of 20 horses which can only be found in the Kentucky Derby.

Thus we ALL will have an opportunity to cash-in with a possible life changing Trifecta or Superfecta ticket.



The 2005 payouts set all-time records with over $100 Million being wagered on the Derby race for the 1st time and the $864,253 payout for the $1 Superfecta set an all-time North America record.

The 10 year average for the Kentucky Derby payouts are:


the average $2 Exacta paid ............... $1,427
the average $2 Trifecta paid ........... $18,477
the average $1 Superfecta paid ...... $104,187

[HedgeHog]

Refer to my earlier post, Hedgehog's little or no chance pays 20-1 on avg, 3 years ago paid almost 900k (nearly 180-1 on the 10 horse super box max combos Hedgehog has determined are almost locks) GL with that. Place your bets at burnmoney.com, they offer a moron bonus.

Your putting words in my mouth. I'm saying people should handicap the race and eliminate non -contenders. Also, I do agree that only a handful of horses can win this race. I only meant to say that a 20-horse box is dumb--and my idea of a 10 horse box is less dumb. It does, however, reduce your risk from 116k down to 5k.

All I'm saying is handicap the damn race and bet accordingly. OK?

[HedgeHog]

Funny you should mention Giacomo--I had him in futures that year. I missed the Tri and Super that year, though

[HedgeHog]

O/U on the $1 Super Payout this year, 45k. What's your bet? I got the Under.

[HedgeHog]

It would be a tough call as to which one is less dumb, as I watched 50-1 Giacomo cross the line in 05' for a 87k payout on $.10 super I'm sure I would've prefered the 20 horse box over the 10 (also I disagree with my earlier assertion that only half the horses could win, I was full of shit and the truth is any of these 20 horses could win, in fact just checking the avg. payout for the Derby has been 44.00 or an average of 21-1 odds on the winner, though longshots like Giacomo raise the average a lot)

If you think that all 20 horse have a shot to win, then you are naive. No wonder you bet 'til your broke. Must be real easy for you.

PS Do you understand that earnings determine eligibility? Not necessarily the best horses. Some horses are just entered for the sole reason of saying they ran in the Derby.

[HedgeHog]

No one cares Hedgehog, when Giacomo was 50-1 clearly no one thought he had a chance and naturally he won. You are obviously interested in putting 5k on your 10 horse box to pay 20k (3/1) so if those are the wagers you love to make and you are betting til your broke you'll be done betting very soon and I won't have to listen to your idiocy.

Not at all. I'm keying 2 priced horses over the next 8 contenders. I won't waste 5k or 116k on a bet that is 80% wasted.

My tri is $84 and Super is $420. I can afford the loss.

[topgame85]

You have to eliminate some of the horses but to say just because they don't look like they can win in the book, handicapping horse races is damn near impossible to begin with

[topgame85]

I dropped $600 at the track last night and thats including at least a nick in winnings so 1100 in total tickets, I am putting at least 30 kids through school a month in MD with the money I drop there so I better be going to heaven for this good deed

[pokernut9999]

I dropped $600 at the track last night and thats including at least a nick in winnings so 1100 in total tickets, I am putting at least 30 kids through school a month in MD with the money I drop there so I better be going to heaven for this good deed

Did you take care of your prior commitments first ?