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  1. 05-01-08 08:56 PM #1
    Justin7
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    Default Week 10 arena

    My best bet this week is Tampa Bay +5x (write up to follow later).

    My card this week is (my lines in parenthesis):
    GRR/DAL UND117x (112)
    Dal-6x
    Dal/CLB Ov96x (100.5)
    KC+3x (Pk)
    TB+5x (-2.5)
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  2. 05-01-08 08:57 PM #2
    Justin7
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    On the Dallas game, do not lay -7. The rest it's ok to miss by 1/2 a point.
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  3. 05-02-08 12:04 AM #3
    Justin7
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    I like Tampa Bay +5.5 over Chicago.

    Chicago is 7-2, and the #1 team in the American conference. Tampa Bay is only 3-5. Is +5.5 points enough?

    Chicago has had one of the easiest schedules this year. In its 7 wins, only 1 was against a team with a winning record. Tampa Bay is better than its record indicates, playing a tougher schedule, and losing 2 very close games.

    Then, look closely at the "luck" factor. Tampa Bay has been brutalized by fumbles, with a net -0.7 fumbles per game. Fumbles are almost completely random (unlike interceptions, which are very correlated to offenses, and somewhat related to defenses). Chicago is slightly on the plus side. This one factor alone accounts for close to a 4-point error in the "expected line".

    I think the books got this one wrong, so I'm on Tampa Bay +5.5 at home.
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  4. 05-02-08 12:09 AM #4
    bettilimbroke999
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    Justin I think you're a pretty fukin good capper, I hope you are anyway cuz I'm betting cheap Arena/NBA right now just tryin to dig my way out of the hole I'm down bout 4k last month and that shit is fukin suckin I am not rich and it's fukin makin me mad but it was money I had won in previous two months but still (actually bout 1500 of that 4k was losing on the stock market with a Scottrade account I opened up but I'm including that as it was total day trade gambling buy/sell in an hour shit). My question is how the fuk do you get within 1/2 pt on Arena, SOB's always miss at least 1 or 2 extra pts, it's like they don't even practice that shit.
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  5. 05-02-08 12:16 AM #5
    SBR Lou
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    Good luck Justin.
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  6. 05-02-08 06:30 AM #6
    treece
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    if arena football ever went on strike, most people wouldn't even know or care.
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  7. 05-02-08 12:54 PM #7
    dwaechte
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    Best of luck Justin, hope ya keep the strong season going.
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  8. 05-05-08 10:35 PM #8
    Justin7
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    Cha-ching! My best bets are now at 6-2 (and I only promised 55% on them!)
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  9. 05-05-08 10:37 PM #9
    pico
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    damn, today's game is a push...or a loss if you taken +4.5
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  10. 05-05-08 10:41 PM #10
    Justin7
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    There were 5.5s a long time after I posted...

    For those that don't line shop, you reap what you sow.
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  11. 05-06-08 12:05 AM #11
    moses millsap
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    For those that don't line shop, you reap what you sow.
    You could've been more blunt Justin:

    "If you didn't at least push this game, you suck at life."
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  12. 05-07-08 04:07 PM #12
    katstale
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    Thanks for the winner. .5 is still as good as 25
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  13. 05-07-08 06:25 PM #13
    pico
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    -4.5 covered too
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