[pico]

what will be the fair odds for this proposition bet?

In the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes release, the FED will state inflation is a concern.

Yes (what is the odds here)
No (what is the odds here)

[HedgeHog]

Yes 80%
No 20%

Fed will likely reference inflation. It may not be directly stated as a "concern", however. Tough prop to assess and maybe even tougher to grade.

[pico]

well you know what i am getting at. 2pm today, if inflation is a concern, then shorting the market now will make you some profit.

[FreeFall]

yes they will discuss inflation. Thats part of one of the problems with our shitty economy today. Sounds like there be too much chalk to bother with the prop bet.

[RageWizard]

well you know what i am getting at. 2pm today, if inflation is a concern, then shorting the market now will make you some profit.

You haven't been reading my stock market postings have you? I have been collecting the short positions up anticipating the after effects of the Fed meeting and earnings season. There is a reason they say "Sell in May and get the fuck away", or something like that.
For the Fed meeting, I wouldn't start shorting now, I would wait until after the meeting. Wall Street is in a bad newsis good news, and good news is great news mode right now. There will probably be a rally later today after the fed speaks. I hoping for a 400 point rally so I can come in with some heavy short plays. I'm about 35-40% in on my short action right now and if there is a huge rally, that would be the time to short. If the fed actually comes out and wall street is disappointed and no rally occurs, then the market will still subside but I won't have a artificially high starting point to start from.

[pico]

You haven't been reading my stock market postings have you? I have been collecting the short positions up anticipating the after effects of the Fed meeting and earnings season. There is a reason they say "Sell in May and get the fuck away", or something like that.
For the Fed meeting, I wouldn't start shorting now, I would wait until after the meeting. Wall Street is in a bad newsis good news, and good news is great news mode right now. There will probably be a rally later today after the fed speaks. I hoping for a 400 point rally so I can come in with some heavy short plays. I'm about 35-40% in on my short action right now and if there is a huge rally, that would be the time to short. If the fed actually comes out and wall street is disappointed and no rally occurs, then the market will still subside but I won't have a artificially high starting point to start from.

your analysis is consistent with my friend's. 15 minutes til the news. i am watching the market now