Giants/Rockies MLB Write up:
Line:
SF -117/Col +109
O/U 7
Records:
San Francisco: 12-13 +0.55 units
Colorado: 9-16 -6.57 units
Trends:
Colorado is 53-112 against the ml in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1997.
Cook is 24-39 against the ml in all games over the last 2 seasons.
Colorado is plus money at night, vs. right-handers, and on grass, and vs. their division, over the last 2 years.
Weather:
Today the weather will be cool, sunny, and very windy with the winds blowing out at about 22mph.
Team vs. Team:
In 2007 the Rockies hit .267 off the Giants as a team which was 9 points above the MLB average. From the mound the Rockies posted a 4.75 ERA vs. the Giants which was almost a full run over the league average. Col also gave up more total bases to the giants than anyone while allowing an OPS of .770.
Last season the Giants hit .280 against Rockies pitching which was 12 points above the league average. They also knocked in 85 RBI which was more than any other team had against the Rockies in 2007. SF did a nice job against the Col bats maintaining a 4.21 ERA that ended up well below the league average despite allowing the Rocks to hit .280 against them overall.
SF Pitching:
Lincecum has an ERA of 4.50 vs. the Rockies and a WHIP of 1.700. The over is 2-0 in Tim’s starts vs. Col.
In just 26 batters faced, Lincecum has been hammered around by the Rockies to the tune of a .385 BA and a 987 OPS. Todd Helton is 4 for 5 off the righty while Torrealba, Atkins, and Hawpe have each had some success in their matchups with Tim in limited experience. Matt Holiday and Troy Tulowitski, on the other hand, have combined to go 1 for 11 with seven punch outs.
Tim Lincecum has been hit a little harder than his 1.23 ERA suggests. His LD% allowed is up almost 6% from his rookie season, but his increased K/9 ratio has allowed him to keep teams off the board.
SF Bats:
The Giants bats have been pretty warm of late. Aurilia, Molina, Lewis, Velez, Durham, and Holm are all at .300 or better over the last week, while Winn is the only guy that’s truly struggling.
Col Pitching:
Cook is 4-6 vs. San Francisco with an ERA of 5.11 and a WHIP of 1.61. His teams record is 4-10 in these starts and the under is 9-5.
Aaron has had a lot of difficulty with Ray Durham over his career as Ray has an OPS over 1.000 and a .345 BA. Vizquel has also had some success vs. Cook, but Winn, Molina, Aurilia, Rowand, and Lewis have each really struggled.
Cook has a poor K/BB walk so far this season despite his impressive ERA and record. To this point Cook has been allowing far fewer line drives than he has over the course of his career while maintaining his ability to induce over 57% ground balls. The right-handers HR/FB rate has been low which suggests that he’s been the product of some luck, but he isn’t facing a team with only 14 HR’s on the year and in a park that’s largely considered a pitchers park.
Col Bats:
Over the last seven days the Rockies bats have been hot. Podsednik, Atkins, Baker, and Helton are all batting over .305 while Holliday and Torrealba are not far behind. On the season the Rockies rank in the bottom 3rd of the league in batting average and they also find themselves towards the bottom 3rd in OPS, SLG%, and runs.
Injuries:
(Giants)
Rowand – Bruised rib cage
Correia – Out
Molina – Sore legs
Vizquel – out
(Rockies)
Nothing new or significant.
Ball Park:
AT&T Park, San Francisco
Favors fly ball pitchers, takes away from a lot of home runs, allows for more doubles due to the spacious OF, The deepest part of the park is in right-center at 421 feet. Lefty power hitters have a tough time at AT&T Park.
Umpire:
Gary Darling is behind the plate tonight. On the season Darling has been an overs umpire (4-1) but in 2007 he was an unders umpire at 13-20.
Line moves:
SF opened at -121 and they currently sit at -117 with the public supporting the Rockies and the under.
Pick:
Over 7 +100
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Originally Posted by mr. leisure
