[topgame85]

agreed ipick this is not to say that occasionally a team that is -130 is a decent play because they should be -165 but long run this theory fails, before I make a play each day I do two things see who I think should be the easiest win for the day and then find the game with an underdog I think has the best chance to win and usually I play the dog because this game is unpredictable as hell and nothing is certain you have to put the money in your favor long term which means not paying juice

[icemantbi]

Of course there are times when there is value in a fave ML. Part of capping is coming up with a line yourself. If you feel that team A should be a -200 favourite, and you find it available at -160, obviously there is perceived value in that line.

[ipickwinners]

if u wanna win in baseball, best thing to do is print of the sheet for the day, scratch off all the favs higher than -110 and only allow urself to bet on those teams. this gives u a much higher chance of coming out on the positve side come season end. i know thats how i do it and have come on the + side the last and 1st 2 years of baseball ive been betting

[Ganchrow]

juice on a dog, need an explanation here.

The juice is on the fav for the house

See An introduction to expectations and theoretical hold.

[treece]

its pretty easy to lay -110 and make money. just pick 53% winners and you're all set. i use a few books that are -110 but i don't use them as much as 5 dimes, matchbook, etc. i usually just spot bet at the -110 books.

[vanzack]

I think the best way to beat this game is to play dogs. Bet for +money all the time. When you do this, you can have a losing record and still make $$$. Take a look at the NHL playoffs, for example. I'm noticing a trend that favs and dogs are hitting at close to 50%. So if you are playing dogs, you would be up quite a bit. a 1-1 day betting on 2 dogs is a profitable day. 1-1 betting 2 faves, you are down for the day.

Another thing I've learned is to embrace the parlay. Lets say you really like 2 faves, both are laying -150. It's not a good idea to bet those games straight, you go 1-1, you would lose money. So, what I do now is parlay them and risk less on the parlay. You need both to hit to make money anyways, might as well risk less and parlay them.

EDIT: I just want to add that the focus here shouldn't be about winning, but about minimizing risks at the same time as trying to maximize reward.

And right here is your answer as to why most gamblers lose.

This guy thinks he is actually somehow reducing his risk by parlaying favorites.

The average gambling IQ of the average gambler is astoundingly low.

[vanzack]

Wow. I just got through this whole thread.

No juice on dogs? Parlay favs to reduce risk? Discussions of value? Wow.

[HedgeHog]

Wow. I just got through this whole thread.

No juice on dogs? Parlay favs to reduce risk? Discussions of value? Wow.

Agree, this is not exactly Think Tank material. We need a Wagering 101 Forum where the basics of betting can be explained as there are a lot of misconceptions circulating.

[BuddyBear]

Ideally, you should be motivated to get the lowest juice and best possible number to increase the probability of winning. It's not always easy though. There are a number of online books out there that feature reduced juice, but a bad number. For example, Bodog often features a -105/-115 side on lines but the -105 is shaded a half point/full point higher. So you may be getting reduced juice (good job), but you are taking a bad number (bad job). Conversely, on that same line you may be getting a good number (good job) but paying high juice to do so (bad job).

-110 is not ideal in today's online gaming environment, but remember, gamblers out in Vegas long before the inception of the Internet were making it by at -110 odds. That being the case, it's important to shop around and find the best possible number and juice.

Additionally, it's almost important to note that just simplying playing underdogs is not a winning formula. Very oversimplistic.

Most gamblers start out betting favorites, parlays, big ml's, teasers, into bad lines, etc... and get burned, and burned badly (phase 1). Then they shift their mentality that to make it, I got to play all underdogs. This then means just betting anything that has a "+" before whether a money line or a side or parlay that has "+" value (phase 2). This works for a little bit and then the gambler realizes that I am not really much better than I was before. If you approach betting as simply "favs" and "dogs" you'll have a hard time getting by IMO. Basically you have to bet into good numbers and make sure to never take the worse number. If a line opens up -10 and it gets bet down and you laid -8, well you did a good job...so what if you took a favorite? Conversely, if you had taken +8 an underdog in that same game...what have you accomplished? You've take the worst possible number on an underdog diminishing the likelihood of winning? Ignore the fav/dog dichotomy and focus on betting into good numbers (phase 3).

[Maledetto]

There are a number of online books out there that feature reduced juice, but a bad number. For example, Bodog often features a -105/-115 side on lines but the -105 is shaded a half point/full point higher. So you may be getting reduced juice (good job), but you are taking a bad number (bad job). Conversely, on that same line you may be getting a good number (good job) but paying high juice to do so (bad job).

Just because you are getting the -105 side of a -105/-115 line doesn't mean you are getting reduced juiced.

[dodif]

you cant win year after year against a -110 line. if you dont add +100-+10000 wagers to ur game you have little chance of winning IMO. I win because i have a very diverse game

[durito]

Just because you are getting the -105 side of a -105/-115 line doesn't mean you are getting reduced juiced.

a -105/-115 line set is less juice (slightly) than a -110/-110 irregardless of whether you bet the -105 or -115.

An advantage player should know the value of 1/2pts in order to choose the best available price -- whether that is -5 (-110), -4.5 (-105), -7 (+300) or -1 (-800), etc.

[element1286]

The juice on a moneyline is on both sides. The fair price is between the numbers. If there was no juice, there would be no split in the lines. You would be betting -120/+120 for the favorite or the dog. But with the juice you might get the favorite at -130, while the dog would be around +110.

I'm sure it is a lot more complicated than that in reality, but that is always how I took it.

[LVHerbie]

Another thing I've learned is to embrace the parlay. Lets say you really like 2 faves, both are laying -150. It's not a good idea to bet those games straight, you go 1-1, you would lose money. So, what I do now is parlay them and risk less on the parlay. You need both to hit to make money anyways, might as well risk less and parlay them.

How big is your sample size on this concept? You might want to make a few more bets on paper before wagering actual money on your system...

[GOJONNY]

Not sure but I paid off my house with last month's gambling winnings. Bought my home on eBay:


http://cgi.ebay.com/House-in-Downtow...ayphotohosting

Jealous nuff motherfukers, only prob is the annual taxes cost more than the home

That's unbelievable - how do you get land for under $5K? I'm jealous for sure...