[diogee]

I don't consider myself a top capper but the one mistake I believe you may have made is overlooking the 1st quarter of both games. Orlando outplayed Toronto in the 1st quarter in both of the 1st 2 games but Toronto pretty much equaled them or outplayed them for the other 6 quarters in the games. I felt Toronto had the momentum and confidence after their huge comeback in game 2 in which they almost pulled off the victory after being down by as much as 18 in the first half. Factor in Toronto has been decent at home this year and the fired up home crowd. Those are a few of the reasons I gave Toronto the edge myself. Don't let it eat you up...you will be back and continue to win because you are one hell of a capper.

[The_Kid]

It's cool Iwin. Take a day off and clear your head. You won't have another day like this.

You are still one of the greatest cappers.

[SBR Lou]

I was convinced, I would have bet the amount that I bet on the Memphis/Ucla 1st half wager if I could have

If more of their 3's went in, particularly in the 1st half, this is a different story. No rhyme or reason to it, people were right that this was a big desperation game for Toronto but these guys are professionals. Both teams play to win. I don't think anyone on Orlando will tell you they wanted to let Toronto hang around rather than go to 3-0.

Don't be too hard on yourself, they will most likely kick the shit out of Toronto the next game and maybe that will provide some consolation. They really are the better team, just didn't come through in this game.

[diogee]

I do agree that all the numbers pointed to Orlando and I would have made the same play had I not factored in the slow starts Toronto had in both games and compared each quarter in the games as well.

Just don't let it eat you up bro. We all have losing days (although yours are few and far between). If you feel it is getting to you when you are capping the games tomorrow don't be afraid to take a day off and re-group because if you let it linger then it can put you in a slide and throw off your judgement.
I am new to this but that is just what I have learned in the last couple of months.

[SBR Lou]

Just don't let it eat you up bro. We all have losing days (although yours are few and far between). If you feel it is getting to you when you are capping the games tomorrow don't be afraid to take a day off and re-group because if you let it linger then it can put you in a slide and throw off your judgement. I am new to this but that is just what I have learned in the last couple of months.

No kidding. He is used to winning like so many of us are used to losing.

[diogee]

I have lost all confidence. Im looking at tomorrows games with a blank look.

Take the day off bro...that is a lot better than using clouded judgement. Either that or reduce your betting amount. You will have your confidence back soon enough...It is just one loss in a long season.

[SBR Lou]

You are 14-2 in the NBA playoffs....

*kickpunchstab* combo...

If you want some confidence back go sleep on the piles of cash you've won over this run, or hell all season long. The Orlando game didn't work out but as you said, your luck extends so far that your local stopped accepting your action the day before you could get god knows how many dimes down on this game..!!!

[diogee]

WTF is accuscore?

[BuddyBear]

You have to be kidding me that you are actually thinking about this. I will actually indulge you and respond to this feigned anger and pretend "lack of confidence" you're demonstrating. To begin, statistically speaking, you should expect a very very big regression soon. You're record is impressive to be sure, but you'll come back down to earth with a thud shortly as would anyone who is hitting at such an ungodly percentage. My recommendation is not to bet as much the next few weeks. Take it for what's it worth....

Second, sorry to say, but you were completely on the wrong side with Orlando. Both the ORL/TOR game and the CLEV/WSH game featured an easy winner...clearly there was a right side and a wrong side to both these games. Sometimes you get games where it comes down to the last few possessions...no right side in those games, but tonight, TOR and WSH were games that featured a right side winner and if you were on the other side, you did not handicapp correctly.

As I mentioned previously in one of your threads, teams that are down 2-0 and going home and favored is one of the strongest ATS situations in the NBA. It hits at an over 60% clip. It's really as simple as that. Teams like TOR and WSH played with their backs agains the wall.....

GL the rest of the way!....

[ChuteBoxe]

You also overlooked past matchups in Toronto, as the Raptors were 4-1 straight up against Orlando in there last 5 meetings at home. Now, obviously it's 5-1. I would say if you're really that blank on tomorrow, to take a day off before you go into a losing streak. Get laid, get bombed, watch movies or something, and start off Saturday fresh. It's time for a new winning streak to close out the playoffs.

[BuddyBear]

There is no "law of averages". His overall win %age will regress, but +14 margin of winners over losers shouldn't.

And your point is? This makes no sense at all.....

14-2 is real good....do you think 544-532 is? Percentage will go down real quick.....

[LT Profits]

There were LOTS of reasons to like Toronto. First of all, home teams down 0-2 are always worth a look, as BB had correctly pointed out. Secondly, Raptors were 7-1 ATS last eight home meetings with Orlando before last night. Yes, Orlando is a good road team this year, but they got spanked by about 17 points the last time they played in Toronto before last night. Finally, the Raptors showed a lot by coming back in the second half in Orlando in Game 2 when they could have easily called it a night after losing Game 1 and going down 18 in Game 2.

I mentioned all of this in my writeup yesterday, so I am not just pointing these out after the fact. So to me, Toronto seemed as "obvious" a play as Orlando seemed to you, and this is coming from someone that hardly ever plays favorites.

[jstblaze]

Iwinyourmoney

i am not a good capper or anything, but i have a pretty solid record over the last 3 NBA seasons.

I was never more upset with myself for picking the wrong side than I was last night in the Orlando/Toronto game.

Just sharing that I felt the exact same way about my bet. Been real strong so far in the palyoff. For some reason I just didnt see it.

And i would ahve to agree with the others on here pointing out that it was obvious, and tahst why i was so disappointed.

[betplom]

It is not a money issue. I guess its a confidence issue.

You have recognized your problem.

You've peaked, it's time to quit as it will never get any better than this.
Go out on top, like the 1000 post guys.
Quit while you are ahead.
(I know, it's not going to happen)

[durito]

As I mentioned previously in one of your threads, teams that are down 2-0 and going home and favored is one of the strongest ATS situations in the NBA. It hits at an over 60% clip. It's really as simple as that. Teams like TOR and WSH played with their backs agains the wall.....

GL the rest of the way!....

My data suggests otherwise.

[5 star bomb]

toronto was at home... i felt they would take game 3

[treece]

iwin i think you overlooked the home court advantage and the absolute need to win for toronto. both those things were very huge because if toronto had lost that game the series would be virtually over. tonight i took dallas -5 because they're at home and they NEED to win.

[fiveteamer]

Well in 3 games, who's looked the better team? Both got blown out, and Orlando blew a huge lead in game 2 and was lucky to win based on refs tucking away the whistle for one last play. Howard can average 35+25, Raptors take this down.

[donjuan]

You have to be kidding me that you are actually thinking about this. I will actually indulge you and respond to this feigned anger and pretend "lack of confidence" you're demonstrating. To begin, statistically speaking, you should expect a very very big regression soon. You're record is impressive to be sure, but you'll come back down to earth with a thud shortly as would anyone who is hitting at such an ungodly percentage. My recommendation is not to bet as much the next few weeks. Take it for what's it worth....

Regression to the mean doesn't mean that his expected win percentage would be below 50% (assuming coin flips).

[pokernut9999]

Regression to the mean doesn't mean that his expected win percentage would be below 50% (assuming coin flips).

I know you and Durito like to pick on BB , but where does he state his regression to fall below 50% ?

[EaglesPhan36]

Lose more often like the rest of us, it's easier to take every time.


Don't sweat a wrong pick ... ever. If you didn't miss a pick, you'd own the world and call yourself Jesus.