[MadCapper]

How much have you won over the years by counting cards?

Have you ever come close to getting busted?

[curious]

Originally Posted by MadCapper

How much have you won over the years?

Have you ever come close to getting busted?

I did it for years. Never was bothered. I know for a fact that certain pit bosses and dealers knew I was counting. Never got banned, or backed off, or "heat".

Card counting is a grind, there are much better ways to make a living.

I had dealers tell me what the count was. The dealers always know who is counting.

[mofome]

Time for Justin to make his appearance on board.

[5 star bomb]

card counting isnt what it once was anymore. casinos have learned ways to beat counting

[MadCapper]

Originally Posted by curious

I did it for years. Never was bothered. I know for a fact that certain pit bosses and dealers knew I was counting. Never got banned, or backed off, or "heat".

Card counting is a grind, there are much better ways to make a living.

I had dealers tell me what the count was. The dealers always know who is counting.

Thats real interesting! Did you tip those dealers well? Or did you just tell them, "I know"!

[pico]

if you willing to spend the brain power to count cards, you can make much more playing at the poker tables.

[20Four7]

There was a thread on this a while ago. Cobra King counted until the poker boom hit then he expended his time playing poker. Now with 6-8 decks auto shufflers that continuously shuffle I don't see any edge but I may be wrong.

[Justin7]

If you are going to sell your time, card counting is a good way to do it. If you're playing a good game, you can double your money about every 100 hours of play.

I might teach a seminar at the SBR Bash on card counting, if there is a demand for it.

[mathdotcom]

Can't make any money counting. Your edge is tiny even if they don't cut a big chunk of the deck away and let you sit there as long as you want.

[AgainstAllOdds]

Its hard way harder now then it used to be...now they can have anywhere from 6-10 decks that are shuffled constantly.

[Justin7]

Originally Posted by mathdotcom

Can't make any money counting. Your edge is tiny even if they don't cut a big chunk of the deck away and let you sit there as long as you want.

You're kidding right? A 25k bankroll translates into about $200/hour.

[Justin7]

Originally Posted by AgainstAllOdds

Its hard way harder now then it used to be...now they can have anywhere from 6-10 decks that are shuffled constantly.

You don't play versus a "CSM" (continuous shuffler). But 6 and 8 deck shoe games are very beatable - in some ways easier than double deck, since casinos are less worried about counters on those games.

[curious]

Originally Posted by MadCapper

Thats real interesting! Did you tip those dealers well? Or did you just tell them, "I know"!

I always tipped well when I was winning. Didn't tip when losing. I asked a couple of dealers why they didn't turn me in and they said "trust me the bosses know who you are". They seemed not to care.

When I first started playing I used a "cover" act of being a total novice. A dealer would watch me play for a few dozen hands and then say "yeah, right" when I tried the "but I don't know anything about blackjack" routine.

The way they know you are counting is your betting pattern, because they know what the count is too so they can easily correlate your bet size to the count.

I am pretty convinced that the casino has card mechanics who can deal you any hand they want anytime you want. If you win too much they will bring in one of these mechanics.

I also noticed that there are certain types of dealers you will do better against. Young, hot shot males almost always beat you. I think they cheat.

The casino knows what the take should be for any table over a the long run. A dealer can significantly increase his income if he cheats you and then has a buddy play and lets the buddy win in order that the table's take falls within the probabilities.

You may not believe this but a casino will investigate a table that wins too much just as seriously as a table that wins too little.

[curious]

Originally Posted by 20Four7

There was a thread on this a while ago. Cobra King counted until the poker boom hit then he expended his time playing poker. Now with 6-8 decks auto shufflers that continuously shuffle I don't see any edge but I may be wrong.

No card counters play against those machines. The best game is single deck with all the cards dealt out and 6:5 odds on blackjack. The second best game is single deck with deep penetration and 3:2 blackjack. After that you go by number of decks (less is better), penetration (more is better), and rules. Hitting soft 17 is bad, double down on any 2 cards is good. Splitting Aces is good.

I went to a casino once and they had a typo in their rules card that was posted on all the tables, instead of saying "double down on any 2 cards", it said "double down on any cards". LOL

[compaqDikk]

i'm guessing you just saw 21 and are ready to move to boston?


don't do it. griffin investation industries got a hold of me, knocked me around a tad, took me to the top of the stratoshpere and had me dangling by the feet and said they'd let go if i ever stepped into the golden nugget again. one of the reasons i can't attend the sbrforum.net bash

[curious]

Originally Posted by Justin7

You're kidding right? A 25k bankroll translates into about $200/hour.

Show me the casino that has 1-4 decks with good penetration and liberal rules in the high stakes area where you could actually win that amount. That is why I stopped playing. Good games are so hard to find.

[Shark79]

Originally Posted by compaqDikk

i'm guessing you just saw 21 and are ready to move to boston?


don't do it. griffin investation industries got a hold of me, knocked me around a tad, took me to the top of the stratoshpere and had me dangling by the feet and said they'd let go if i ever stepped into the golden nugget again. one of the reasons i can't attend the sbrforum.net bash

[Justin7]

Originally Posted by curious

Show me the casino that has 1-4 decks with good penetration and liberal rules in the high stakes area where you could actually win that amount. That is why I stopped playing. Good games are so hard to find.

The Bellagio game takes big bets. Its double-deck game has a house edge of 0.16%. Its 6-deck game is about 0.3%.

Every MGM property, and almost every Harrah's property will take $500 bets on their 6-deck games. These are worth over $300/hour.

Every casino I have played at ANYWHERE will take $500, even in the middle of no where. If I can get 75% penetration with average rules (0.42%) on a 6-deck, you're making over $200/hour.

A more difficult question is: what casinos do NOT have a game worth that? There are a few in Vegas (O'Sheas and its 6-deck 6:5 BJ game).

And then there is the whole world of slug tracking and ace tracking...

[curious]

Originally Posted by Justin7

The Bellagio game takes big bets. Its double-deck game has a house edge of 0.16%. Its 6-deck game is about 0.3%.

Every MGM property, and almost every Harrah's property will take $500 bets on their 6-deck games. These are worth over $300/hour.

Every casino I have played at ANYWHERE will take $500, even in the middle of no where. If I can get 75% penetration with average rules (0.42%) on a 6-deck, you're making over $200/hour.

A more difficult question is: what casinos do NOT have a game worth that? There are a few in Vegas (O'Sheas and its 6-deck 6:5 BJ game).

And then there is the whole world of slug tracking and ace tracking...

I'm sorry dude, but I played blackjack for over ten years using every conceivable advantage tactic. A 6 deck game with 75% penetration? I would pass. You are forgetting variance. A $25,000 bankroll means that your max bet cannot be more than $250 and that has to include double down and splits, so your max bet is really $125. That is to have a risk of ruin of 1%. And that max bet is with a count of 10 or higher. Betting $500 on average counts on a 6 deck game with 75% penetration is a really good way to lose your entire bankroll of $25,000. That is only 50 bets. The variance in that game is way too high for that kind of betting.

I've done slug tracking and I've done ace steering. Works better with fewer decks and more penetration.

[Justin7]

Originally Posted by curious

I'm sorry dude, but I played blackjack for over ten years using every conceivable advantage tactic. A 6 deck game with 75% penetration? I would pass. You are forgetting variance. A $25,000 bankroll means that your max bet cannot be more than $250 and that has to include double down and splits, so your max bet is really $125. That is to have a risk of ruin of 1%. And that max bet is with a count of 10 or higher. Betting $500 on average counts on a 6 deck game with 75% penetration is a really good way to lose your entire bankroll of $25,000. That is only 50 bets. The variance in that game is way too high for that kind of betting.

I've done slug tracking and I've done ace steering. Works better with fewer decks and more penetration.

Again, I'll disagree.

Your variance on a normal Blackjack game is 1.4 units per hand (meaning a typical hand results in a decision of +/- 1.2 bets). The variance is much lower on the high counts, as long as you play a surrender game.

If you're spreading $25 to $250 (max bet at +3 or higher), you'll make about $150 an hour on a 75% game. It's easy to find better pens, and you can make more if you adjust your spreads a bit, or wong out.

I'll agree that it is a grind though.

[jackpot269]

counting cards seems hard!!!

[curious]

Originally Posted by Justin7

Again, I'll disagree.

Your variance on a normal Blackjack game is 1.4 units per hand (meaning a typical hand results in a decision of +/- 1.2 bets). The variance is much lower on the high counts, as long as you play a surrender game.

If you're spreading $25 to $250 (max bet at +3 or higher), you'll make about $150 an hour on a 75% game. It's easy to find better pens, and you can make more if you adjust your spreads a bit, or wong out.

I'll agree that it is a grind though.

Your risk of ruin is way too high on this game. Well, you first said a $500 max bet, now you say a $250 max bet. Max bet at +3 or higher? Your risk of ruin is really high. Odds you will lose your bank before doubling it are 25%.

I'm pretty convinced you don't actually play blackjack at the betting levels you indicate.

You talk about variance per hand. But, over 90 hours variance can make your bankroll disappear or it can double it. That is being conservative. With the risk of ruin you are laying at your swings will be much wilder than that.

Money is made in blackjack in chunks. It isn't a steady uphill climb. There are wild swings in bankroll depending on how good the game is, the risk or ruin you are willing to tolerate, your spread, whether you use full kelly or partial kelly, and whether or not you make mistakes.

The emotional toll that these wild swings take on a BJ player are what usually make them quit. Or they lose their discipline and chase losses or don't make those big bets the count is dictating.

How many people can put out that maximum bet with the count +10 when they just lost 5 max bets in a row and two of them were double down hands?

Or, what always happened to me, you have a pair of 9s vs the dealer 6. You split 3 times and get double down hands on all 4 hands, now you have 8 max bets out there. And the dealer pulls to a 21. LOL. And the count is now in orbit and you have to come right back with a big bet again. LOL

[Kellen]

Im capable of doing it, I just havent used it a lot. Im always on the craps table.

[thezbar]

Originally Posted by curious

I did it for years. Never was bothered. I know for a fact that certain pit bosses and dealers knew I was counting. Never got banned, or backed off, or "heat".

Card counting is a grind, there are much better ways to make a living.

I had dealers tell me what the count was. The dealers always know who is counting.

This is not a true statement. Sometimes dealers will be paying attention to other things. Break in dealers have other things to worry about. However if you are playing in a house where the dealers go for their own tips, the sharper ones know way more than the public think they know. I always want that edge so I will play small tooks for the dealer to keep their mind in the game.

[curious]

Originally Posted by jackpot269

counting cards seems hard!!!

Counting cards is not hard. Winning enough money consistently by counting cards is very hard. Much easier ways to make money. Working, for example.

Two things most blackjack "experts" either ignore or downplay. The odds in blackjack only work if you get into the law of large numbers.

Unfortunately, to play enough hands to get into the law of large numbers you then have to overcome standard deviation. The swings in blackjack are enormous. For example, on the game that Justin is saying he can make $200 an hour at (don't believe it), here are the swings using a conservative standard deviation.

90 hours +33,000 to -11,000

I used a conservative risk of ruin. However, Justin was talkikng about making $500 bets at +3 or more. So, the risk of ruin is much higher, so the swings will be much greater. Basically, that $25,000 bankroll could be gone in 90 hours. The odds of that happening are 25%.

To win at blackjack you have to have: a bankroll which supports betting no more than 1/2 of 1% of the bank on your max bet, you have to assume you will double down or split on that hand, which makes your true max bet 1%. Of course, what will really happen is you will split 3 times and double down 4 times, so your true max bet will be 4% of your bank. LOL I know people who use 1/8 of 1% for max bet to account for this.

You also have to have nerves of steel to watch your bank go through wide swings.

You have to have discipline to always bet what the count, your risk of ruin %, and kelly criterion tell you to bet no matter what happened before.

Can you put out that big bet with a count of +10 when you just lost 5 big bets in a row? Not everyone can do that.

You have to have a count system that is effective and that you can use without making mistakes. Mistakes eliminate your edge.

[WE EAT FISH]

fifty two playing cards EACH DECK

[curious]

Originally Posted by Kellen

Im capable of doing it, I just havent used it a lot. Im always on the craps table.

I LOVE craps. When the dice you get hot you can make more money faster than anything I have ever seen.

[mofome]

Justin lies to us about how good he is in blackjack?

[mathdotcom]

Sucker game. Even worse than poker.

[Justin7]

Originally Posted by curious

Your risk of ruin is way too high on this game. Well, you first said a $500 max bet, now you say a $250 max bet. Max bet at +3 or higher? Your risk of ruin is really high. Odds you will lose your bank before doubling it are 25%.

I'm pretty convinced you don't actually play blackjack at the betting levels you indicate.

I'm pretty convinced you don't know how to read.

I never said to bet $500 on a 25k bankroll. A $500 max bet will won't draw undue attention at MGM properties, whereas 1k will. That's why I used it as an example. For an intermediate player, $25k is a good bankroll gauge. Hence, the examples on that.

Originally Posted by curious

You talk about variance per hand. But, over 90 hours variance can make your bankroll disappear or it can double it. That is being conservative. With the risk of ruin you are laying at your swings will be much wilder than that.

Are you forgetting to lower your bets if you lose a significant portion of your bankroll?

Originally Posted by curious

The emotional toll that these wild swings take on a BJ player are what usually make them quit. Or they lose their discipline and chase losses or don't make those big bets the count is dictating.

How many people can put out that maximum bet with the count +10 when they just lost 5 max bets in a row and two of them were double down hands?

Or, what always happened to me, you have a pair of 9s vs the dealer 6. You split 3 times and get double down hands on all 4 hands, now you have 8 max bets out there. And the dealer pulls to a 21. LOL. And the count is now in orbit and you have to come right back with a big bet again. LOL

Most pros never played in a casino until they learned to count cards. Most pros get slightly annoyed at losing 5 max bets in one hand, or 20 max bets in an hour. None chase, lose their discipline, or have the other failings you described. If you enjoy the ups and downs of gambling, you have no business gambling.

[MadCapper]

Originally Posted by WE EAT FISH

fifty two playing cards EACH DECK

SH!T! No wonder why I always lose! I always thought there were 48 cards and the dealer automatically starts with an Ace!!

[curious]

Originally Posted by MadCapper

SH!T! No wonder why I always lose! I always thought there were 48 cards and the dealer automatically starts with an Ace!!

Well, I am convinced that casinos modify the distribution of the cards in those 6 decks so that the dealer has a better edge. Like removing Aces.

When I played every day I always kept a side count of the Aces and I can't tell you how many times there were far fewer Aces seen before the cut card than there should have been given the number of decks which had been dealt out. This happened far more times than probability would suggest.

[MadCapper]

Originally Posted by curious

Well, I am convinced that casinos modify the distribution of the cards in those 6 decks so that the dealer has a better edge. Like removing Aces.

When I played every day I always kept a side count of the Aces and I can't tell you how many times there were far fewer Aces seen before the cut card than there should have been given the number of decks which had been dealt out. This happened far more times than probability would suggest.

Thats insane. Give the house an even bigger edge!

[curious]

Originally Posted by MadCapper

Thats insane. Give the house an even bigger edge!

I have two theories as to how they could do this. First, the casino just flat removed the Aces from the decks.

Second, the dealer was a card mechanic who was good at clump tracking (what some people call slug tracking) and he kept track of where the Aces where in the discard tray and made sure that his shuffle put most of them behind the cut card.

I have seen card mechanics who could do that with ease.

[MadCapper]

Originally Posted by curious

I have two theories as to how they could do this. First, the casino just flat removed the Aces from the decks.

Second, the dealer was a card mechanic who was good at clump tracking (what some people call slug tracking) and he kept track of where the Aces where in the discard tray and made sure that his shuffle put most of them behind the cut card.

I have seen card mechanics who could do that with ease.

Would these dealers get a % of house winnings??