[Illusion]

Call me crazy boys, but I think Serra +400 has some great value.

UFC 83: Serra vs St. Pierre

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[j$]

I'm playing Hopkins Boxing tomorrow night +180

[BeatTheJerk]

y is he such a big dog ....... illusion ? and at what book

[purecarnagge]

He's a dog because St Pierre is that good... Serra will go down...watch.

[j$]

scratch that a bunny said Serra will lose

[BeatTheJerk]

what r these guys records j ...........

[AgainstAllOdds]

if your a value bettor, this does have it...but st. pierre is a beast and has about about 80% chance of winning this fight

[BeatTheJerk]

does hopkins have a shot at his return ............

[Illusion]

Originally Posted by BeatTheJerk

what r these guys records

Serra is 16-4-0 and St-Pierre is 15-2-0

[Illusion]

Originally Posted by BeatTheJerk

y is he such a big dog ....... illusion ? and at what book

I'm not quite sure why he's that big of a dog, but I do like the value. I got that line at The Greek.

[purecarnagge]

Value doesn't mean shit if you don't win.

[KickABuck]

Those are strange odds considering Serra already beat him once. I'd bet it if I weren't already placing my funds on boxing this weekend. I think Serra will beat him again.

[slacker00]

GSP has the home town advantage, the fight is in Montreal. Serra is from Long Island.

Also, GSP is an absolute beast at the peak of his career.

Still, +400 is good value on the dog. Serra is a tough nut and could pull an upset again. Serra is the #2 ranked welterweight in the world. (GSP is #1). I'm playing it to win 1 unit.


What do you guys think if this one goes to a decision? Does GSP get the home town advantage? Does Serra get the title-holder prejudice? I think GSP gets a big edge from the judges, possibly, if the fight goes to a decision.

[losingmyshirt]

Originally Posted by slacker00

What do you guys think if this one goes to a decision? Does GSP get the home town advantage? Does Serra get the title-holder prejudice? I think GSP gets a big edge from the judges, possibly, if the fight goes to a decision.

I agree GSP would have an edge with the judges being that it is his home town(Bisping vs Hamil anyone?) . Also not that I am saying the UFC influences judges but I'm sure they would like to see GSP win since he is a much more marketable champion. With that being said this fight does not go the distance.

[mundane]

imo numbers and stats dont mean jack in ufc!

gsp ftw!

but if ur a value bettor u may wanna put $5 to win $20 on serra.

[barkus]

I saw the 16-4 record too somewhere as well... but I have no idea where it's from. He's actually 9-4.

http://www.sherdog.com/fightfinder/f...FighterID=1305

Some other things to consider is that GSP is taking this fight much more seriously than last time. He actually said if he had been scheduled to fight Hughes he would have pulled out of the fight because of what was going on in his life. Also Serra's coming off a herniated disk in his back from a few months ago, that's a serious injury to come back from so soon. Another thing is GSP is a vastly superior fighter... there's a reason why he was favored 10-1 last fight. In my opinion Serra won that fight the only possible way he could have... which was to connect with a haymaker.

I say either bet GSP or pass. I guess you could put a few bucks on serra for some action but don't be too hopeful

Edit... looked into it and Serra's record is actually 16-4

[twtb19]

Originally Posted by AgainstAllOdds

if your a value bettor, this does have it...but st. pierre is a beast and has about about 80% chance of winning this fight

I don't see how that = value...so if Serra would win 20% of the time or 1 out of 5 times, how do 4-1 odds = making money.

And to be honest I don't think Serra would even win one out of five times I would put it at more of a 1 in 10.

If you want to bet on a hunch because you feel it is a bad matchup for GSP or you think one fighter is hurt or whatever that is fine, but I don't see value here.

[purecarnagge]

GSP was in lalala land after the haymaker, the only reason Serra won. Winning is winning, but he's not a better fighter. Hughes can't even take Pierre down...what makes you think Serra could win on the ground game? GSP will take this to the ground. This is going to be over before round 2.

[Marigold HD]

Good analysis purecarnage......hey, do you guys there could ever be a match between GSP and Anderson Silva.....I know the weigh class are different, but could there be a possibility.

[purecarnagge]

no they would never do that match unless both the players asked for it.

Anyways, I'd like to see where all these "value" bettors are at today...

[mundane]

Originally Posted by purecarnagge

no they would never do that match unless both the players asked for it.

Anyways, I'd like to see where all these "value" bettors are at today...

dude how do u get off from people who lost some money? they are value bettors. doesnt mean they are stupid or something! it's just dat, relying on value and if it comes through, they win+. if they lose, im sure they can afford to move on!

let it go!

[LT Profits]

purecarnage,

You seem to fail to grasp the concept of value. If someone gave Serra say a 25% chance of winning, then +440 was definitely the right play. Value players know going in that Serra would lose three out of four times, and they make their money when he wins his one in four at +440. Value players are not as concerend with winning percentage as they are with winning in the LONG-TERM, which is all that matters.

[slacker00]

Originally Posted by purecarnagge

no they would never do that match unless both the players asked for it.

Anyways, I'd like to see where all these "value" bettors are at today...

I had Serra +400 & Franklin -300 Saturday night, so I was a net winner on fight night. One bet never makes or breaks a disciplined handicapper.

[trixtrix]

the "value" bet you speak of is entirely based off the assumption that serra can win the fight every 1 out of 5 times. (btw, this great "value" bet was available 2 weeks ago at +530 or better) if that assumption is wrong, then that bet had absolutely no value whatsoever..

i don't understand how anyone can be so sure of "value" existed based on an assumption/presumption, esp in light present valuing what had happened on sat night..

[LT Profits]

I think you misunderstood me. If a handicapper caps Serra to win one in four times, then +440 was a good bet. Whether or not the handcapper is good or not is another story.

[purecarnagge]

Personally, I had serra at a 1/10. I just didn't think he could submit GSP. So that means lucky punch/fight called or stopped

Just was my opinion after seeing GSP in person.

[trixtrix]

on the other hand, if you truly capped the efficient line on gsp at -900, then i hope you went to war w/ -450. the edge on this bet is enormous..