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Thread Tools | Display Modes |
04-18-2008, 09:58 AM
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#1 (permalink) |
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Moderator
Join Date: 07-31-06
Posts: 1,715
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Arena best bet
Columbus+11.5 vs Philadelphia
A lot of people are on Philadelphia. Graziani, one of the best QBs in the league, is expected to start for Phili after missing the last 5 weeks. Columbus's offense is 16th out of 17th for points generated. Returning shark QB versus an offensive pip-squeak should be a blowout, right? A few counter points. D'Orazio has played very well for Phili in Graziani's absence. So well, in fact, that I don't make any line adjustment for Graziani returning. Second, Columbus's offensive production isn't as bad as it looks. If you are "suppose to lose", good coaches slow the game down. This gives underdogs a better chance to win (and cover). The Destroyers are averaging only 10.3 possessions per game, compared to the league average of 12.5. I don't expect Phili to put up 56 points on 10 possessions. Third, the game is at Columbus. In years past, I have used a home field advantage of about 1.5 points. This year, the league average has been 5 points. It was higher than last year also. Fourth, Columbus has been unlucky. In 7 games, they have not recovered a single fumble on defense or kicking. While interceptions are highly correlated to offense and somewhat related to defense, fumbles are almost completely random. On the flip side, Phili has a +6 fumble turnover ratio, making their wins look better than they truly are. The two extremes in luck (and removing it) is worth another 5 point adjustment in the line. My best bet this week is Columbus +11.5. |
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04-18-2008, 10:22 AM
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#6 (permalink) |
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Moderator
Join Date: 07-31-06
Posts: 1,715
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I make the fair line Phili-5. Columbus plays a lot of close games - last week was the first game this year where either side won by more than 1 possession (8 points).
I can't imagine the line moving enough to where I'd take it back. but if I could take +10x and -8 at the same time, I would. |
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04-18-2008, 12:31 PM
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#8 (permalink) |
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SBR Hall of Famer
Join Date: 04-05-07
Location: the moon
Posts: 10,052
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damn justin. the line opened at +11.5 last night. i knew you unload on that. i know what you're up to...trying to move the lines and middle it. best of luck...i hope enough people follow you so you'll make a killing out of this no matter who wins.
you past picks are all winners, so i am pretty confident that +10.5 is an easy cover. 
__________________
"But you can't have your dream without laying something on the line. The key is not to risk what you can't afford to lose. You might think you're different, but someday you gonna want more too. The quesiton is what are you willing to lay on the line." 钱 錢 argent Geld soldi お金 돈 dinheiro деньги dinero เงิน כסף, ממון raha λεφτά pengar danh từ money |
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04-18-2008, 01:23 PM
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#10 (permalink) | |
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SBR Hall of Famer
Join Date: 04-05-07
Location: the moon
Posts: 10,052
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Quote:
__________________
"But you can't have your dream without laying something on the line. The key is not to risk what you can't afford to lose. You might think you're different, but someday you gonna want more too. The quesiton is what are you willing to lay on the line." 钱 錢 argent Geld soldi お金 돈 dinheiro деньги dinero เงิน כסף, ממון raha λεφτά pengar danh từ money |
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04-19-2008, 12:21 AM
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#11 (permalink) | |
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SBR Wise Guy
Join Date: 04-15-08
Posts: 604
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Quote:
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04-19-2008, 12:59 AM
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#12 (permalink) | |
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Moderator
Join Date: 07-31-06
Posts: 1,715
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Quote:
tonight I had... Ari+7 (loser) Utah+7x (loser) TB-6 (loser) Utah/SJ UND123x (winner) I lose a lot more than I post, so bet rationally. Never follow anyone blindly. That said, I'm really trying to give out my one best play each week, and I expect that one play to hit 55%+ if you can get the right number. |
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04-19-2008, 01:07 AM
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#13 (permalink) |
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SBR Hall of Famer
Join Date: 04-05-07
Location: the moon
Posts: 10,052
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i wish you cap MLB, justin
__________________
"But you can't have your dream without laying something on the line. The key is not to risk what you can't afford to lose. You might think you're different, but someday you gonna want more too. The quesiton is what are you willing to lay on the line." 钱 錢 argent Geld soldi お金 돈 dinheiro деньги dinero เงิน כסף, ממון raha λεφτά pengar danh từ money |
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04-19-2008, 01:22 AM
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#14 (permalink) | |
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Moderator
Join Date: 07-31-06
Posts: 1,715
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Quote:
MLB is a tough beast to beat. It's easier to attack the smaller markets in MLB - run lines, reverse line, and second half betting... These are much less efficient, and less exploited by the computer groups. |
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04-19-2008, 01:33 AM
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#15 (permalink) | |
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SBR Hall of Famer
Join Date: 04-05-07
Location: the moon
Posts: 10,052
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Quote:
__________________
"But you can't have your dream without laying something on the line. The key is not to risk what you can't afford to lose. You might think you're different, but someday you gonna want more too. The quesiton is what are you willing to lay on the line." 钱 錢 argent Geld soldi お金 돈 dinheiro деньги dinero เงิน כסף, ממון raha λεφτά pengar danh từ money |
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