[thegreatdiatchi]

Since I consider myself an entry-level capper I'll keep my question very basic. When capping a game (lets pick baseball if we have to choose a sport since baseball just began) what factors are most important and what types of number crunching should be done? Are there any references for a new capper to use that would increase the chances of properly predicting a game?

The chance to put all of the relevant capping information into one area on SBR starts with this thread.

[treece]

this how i cap a game. flip a coin, if it comes up heads take the home team, tails take the road team. best fukin way to do it.

[SBR Lou]

Originally Posted by treece

this how i cap a game. flip a coin, if it comes up heads take the home team, tails take the road team. best fukin way to do it.

This guy knows what he's talking about.

[LT Profits]

Starting May 1, if you could handicap the bullpens, you will win.

Bullpens: The Key to Winning MLB Handicapping

[20Four7]

Baseball is very streaky. You like streaks. Never go against a team on a winning streak, don't try and predict the end of a losing streak. Long road trips are hard on teams too, a road team on it's 2nd or 3rd road series (especially a losing trip) is draining mentally with all the travel etc.

Or you could flip a coin, I prefer tails being home team mind you but that's just me.

[BigOrangeTitans]

20four7 hit this one on the head.
Never fade a winning streak, and never chase a losing streak.
Furthermore, even the WORST teams hit at over a 35% clip on the moneyline.
As for totals, I dont bet them much, but when I do its usually due to a lopsided line. For instance, the over 10 in the bosox/yanks game was +145 last night. Now we know both of these lineup's are stocked. Why was the line so lopsided? Yanks games were like 10% over/90%under and the sox games were like 30%over/70 under(approximately). Therefore, this under was hit heavy. But this is baseball. With these lineups at that price, throw the numbers out of the window. It cashed, easily.

When it comes to RL's, I only like to play RL's when a home team is trying to avoid a sweep or losing the series. If I like the fave on the ML and the above scenario is playing out, I'll take the RL if its +130ish or higher(depending on win probability).

As for crunching numbers and what I use, I'll give you a summary, and you can ask questions from there.
I look at:
SP vs opposing team history
Bullpen ERA/WHIP/Injuries/etc
Last five games batting average/runs scored/walks/strikeouts
SP's past 5 starts
Winning/Losing streaks

[thegreatdiatchi]

Originally Posted by BigOrangeTitans

20four7 hit this one on the head.
Never fade a winning streak, and never chase a losing streak.
Furthermore, even the WORST teams hit at over a 35% clip on the moneyline.
As for totals, I dont bet them much, but when I do its usually due to a lopsided line. For instance, the over 10 in the bosox/yanks game was +145 last night. Now we know both of these lineup's are stocked. Why was the line so lopsided? Yanks games were like 10% over/90%under and the sox games were like 30%over/70 under(approximately). Therefore, this under was hit heavy. But this is baseball. With these lineups at that price, throw the numbers out of the window. It cashed, easily.

When it comes to RL's, I only like to play RL's when a home team is trying to avoid a sweep or losing the series. If I like the fave on the ML and the above scenario is playing out, I'll take the RL if its +130ish or higher(depending on win probability).

As for crunching numbers and what I use, I'll give you a summary, and you can ask questions from there.
I look at:
SP vs opposing team history
Bullpen ERA/WHIP/Injuries/etc
Last five games batting average/runs scored/walks/strikeouts
SP's past 5 starts
Winning/Losing streaks

BOT when you cap is the line typically the first thing you look at or do you look at the factors first?

[BigOrangeTitans]

Originally Posted by thegreatdiatchi

BOT when you cap is the line typically the first thing you look at or do you look at the factors first?

Always build my own line first. Then, depending on the difference between the books line and mine, i decide how much I will wager. If the line is just ungodly not even close to the books, then I go through and look for key injuries or "angles" that I may have missed(i.e. team A plans on resting key starters).

[BigOrangeTitans]

Mods, can we copy this to the think tank? I dont want it to get buried.

[thegreatdiatchi]

Thanks BOT, I think this will come in handy for me & anyone else watching starting tomorrow. With that being said is it safe to put money on the Tigers now or are they in the no bet zone right now considering they only won tonight?

[BigOrangeTitans]

Originally Posted by thegreatdiatchi

Thanks BOT, I think this will come in handy for me & anyone else watching starting tomorrow. With that being said is it safe to put money on the Tigers now or are they in the no bet zone right now considering they only won tonight?

Their price will be around -150 again, so I would stay way, personally. Until they get to at least .500, I would only play em as dogs.

[BigOrangeTitans]

Mods:

Do your phuckin job and put this in the think tank.

Sheesh, sometimes I wonder what you guys get paid for other than to give me infractions.

[shady610]

i think handicaping is highly overrated. to me handicapping is more about justifying a pick rather than determining a winner.

[BigOrangeTitans]

Originally Posted by shady610

i think handicaping is highly overrated. to me handicapping is more about justifying a pick rather than determining a winner.

Hmm, so sports wagering = coin flip?

Education leads a long way pal.

[diogee]

Originally Posted by shady610

i think handicaping is highly overrated. to me handicapping is more about justifying a pick rather than determining a winner.

This doesn't make sense to me...I personally handicap a game with no idea who I am going to play on so handicapping is to determine the winner to me....then again I am new to this game.

[BigOrangeTitans]

Originally Posted by diogee

This doesn't make sense to me...I personally handicap a game with no idea who I am going to play on so handicapping is to determine the winner to me....then again I am new to this game.

Dio, people don't have to make sense here. One click and they make it all go way.

I dont see coinflip posting any winners.