[HedgeHog]

The NCAA Title Game shapes as one of the most competitive ever, at least on paper. The two elite teams have saved their best basketball for late March/early April, promising us an entertaining finale in San Antonio tonight.

Opening Line: Kansas 1.5, O/U 144

Current Line: Memphis 2, O/U 146.5

Season Rec: Kansas 36-3, Memphis 38-1

Ave Score: Kansas 81-61, Memphis 80-62

Season Edge: Despite their near perfect record, Memphis wins by 18 points per game, compared to 20 by Kansas. Add in strength of schedule, especially in respect to conference play, and I'd say the Jayhawks were 4 points better than the Tigers. Note that both teams have an average Total of 142 points in their PF vs PA.

Tourney Edge: Let's look at the last four tourney games for each club. Why not all five games? Because #1 vs #16 "games" aren't actually contests at all, more of a scrimmage for the top seeds as they get ready for the real competition. For the record, Kansas and Memphis each won by 24 over "powder puffs" Portland State and Texas Arlington in the opening round. After that, the Jayhawks and Tigers faced roughly the same level of competition and each won by an average of 13.5 points. Strangely, Kansas did so via 4 Unders and an average score of 72.5-59. Conversely, Memphis was involved in 4 Overs and average score of 83-69.5. Even stranger is the fact that the combined average of all eight of these contests is---you guessed it...142 again.

Final Thoughts: My betting scale is from a low of 1 Unit to a max of 5 Units. Also I avoid the "Super Bowl Syndrome" of betting more on the last game of the season just because of its championship ramifications. It doesn't make sense to me as it's simply another game. That said, what was once a 4 point Kansas edge has been shaved down to 2 based on recent play. Also, the 142 Total seems solid; it's been a recurring theme here. My only fear here though is the very real possibility of OT. So my plays are:

Kansas+2 3 Units & Under 146.5 1 Unit

[HedgeHog]

Bump. I'm on Kansas and Under. What's your side and O/U?

[mofome]

personally, im leaning mem/under but im going to wait and see what i read in these write ups and make a choice tonight. bol to u HH

[HedgeHog]

personally, im leaning mem/under but im going to wait and see what i read in these write ups and make a choice tonight. bol to u HH

I'm guessing you're changing the Louisville Cardinal avatar tomorrow. You're a good sport for keeping it until the end of the Tourney.

[HedgeHog]

depends on if tacky fouls will be called on the guards.
Thats it.
KU in foul trouble = game over.
Physical game with the low post/few fouls = KU.

Because Memphis is so good at FTs?

[jjgold]

Memphis 78-72

[HedgeHog]

Memphis 78-72

THANK YOU! Fade system is on Kansas/Under.

[ivanator]

Memphis 78-72

Hope you're right, i'm up $100 if memphis wins

[HedgeHog]

Hope you're right, i'm up $100 if memphis wins

He was right once.

[HedgeHog]

Got lucky in OT, no doubt. But the stats held up!

[mofome]

Got lucky in OT, no doubt. But the stats held up!

not that lucky with OT really...your guess on the score was the closest i believe (2 point margin) when in reality the game ended in a tie. i dont think anyone else had it going that close. thats a tough call on a game you have to pick a side and a total on.

[HedgeHog]

not that lucky with OT really...your guess on the score was the closest i believe (2 point margin) when in reality the game ended in a tie. i dont think anyone else had it going that close. thats a tough call on a game you have to pick a side and a total on.

You had a very tough loss on Memphis, a winner without that 3-pointer in regulation--at least the Under still won, despite the OT.

[mofome]

Yea not that lucky that win was a motherfukin miracle, luck does not begin to explain it, I will pay you to pick my lottery numbers what a fukin shit last FT chokeoff and final second defended miracle 3

one of the worst ft shooting teams in the nation misses 1 of 2? don't give me the other 2 they missed in the end, those proved to be beneficial as they got an offensive rebound and took more time off the clock. as for the 3, a straight away 3 that wasn't off balance or deep? a great player made a high school 3 pointer, whats wrong?

[mofome]

You had a very tough loss on Memphis, a winner without that 3-pointer in regulation--at least the Under still won, despite the OT.

a 5 star recruit made a 3 pointer from the top of the key. thats the kind of player kansas recruits. we all knew going in that fts were a big problem for the tigers..

[HedgeHog]

When JJ picked Memphis and Over, I knew I had a decent shot (see post #9).

Seriously, a tremendous game no matter what you bet.

[mofome]

Mofo you really are a dumb mofo tonight, if that wasn't the biggest choke/luckiest comeback you've seen since Boston/NY then you've been hittin the crackpipe too hard. They are up 9 with 2 1/2 mins left, if they could shoot 50% from the line they are unbeatable and that you call normal, so apparently you believe that Ben Wallace is twice the FT shooter of D-R/Rose which is fine if that's how you feel (moronic but fine) that miracle opens the door for a last second well defended turn and shoot 3 which he was probably fouled on but being the last shot of the game they woudnt call it and naturally it finds the bottom of the net. Then the 50/50 win/loss in OT of course wins, if you honestly think that wasn't lucky than you need to look up luck in the dictionary and also if that wasn't lucky than you should've gotten a fist full of dollars as matchbook had it at +1800 with 2 1/2 mins left in the game so shove a dime on that great wager and buy a new car when you're done.

[mofome]

That's what you make the big bucks for intelligent responses like that . Anyways, gl guys see ya when NFL rolls around.

[mofome]

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