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Stock Market 04_07_08
O.K. the hype machine is in full gear on all the business shows. Lets see what the charts have to say. Below is the IWM daily chart it shows that the small and midcaps have been steadily gaining and it even moved across the 50 day moving average. The volume is diminishing and the stochastics are in the overbought region.
Last edited by RageWizard; 05-06-08 at 07:33 AM.
A look at the IWM in a weekly chart shows that it has been increasing and the volume has been decreasing, but the stochastics are not yet in the oversold territory. This means that there is probably some more upside potential to squeeze out of it still.
Last edited by RageWizard; 05-06-08 at 07:33 AM.
The S&P daily is now at the level of resistance above the 50 day moving average. It moved there last Tuesday and hasn't been able to break above. The stochastics are in the overbought area and the orange %k line is about to cross the %D line. When ever the limnes cross on in the stochastics chart, that means that the sentiment has shifted.
Last edited by RageWizard; 05-06-08 at 07:33 AM.
A look at the S&P weekly shows that the price has been moving up and the volume really hasn't been trailing off that much. Also the stochastics are still in the middle range so this also indicates that there is some up side potential left in the rally.
Last edited by RageWizard; 05-06-08 at 07:33 AM.
Looking at the XLF daily shows that this spider has been up against resistance now for the last three days with volume trailing off significantly. Late word this morning has a banking deal in the works, and that usally means that the financials will be making a run, even though the stochastics are in the overbought range. If there was no banking deal today, I think that this would have been coming down, but now it will probably get a pop right off the open. If so, I will be coming in with ashort play if there is no follow through volume this morning on the 15 minute chart.
Last edited by RageWizard; 05-06-08 at 07:33 AM.
Interesting..........
Keep posting RW I'm reading....
A look at the XLF weekly chart shows that the volume has been going down the last month and the etf has been staying around the 50 day moving average. The stochastics are still in the middle range and this is why there may be a decent movement today with the deal that was just annouced this morning. If there is no initial gap up to this etf (I will be shocked if there isn't but I would be buying then.) So WTF Rage you say? That't right I'm going to go long if there is no gap open or if there is follow through volume this morning, or I'm going to go short it there is a gap open and no follow through volume.
Last edited by RageWizard; 05-06-08 at 07:33 AM.
So here is the VIX index. I t is about as low as it has been all year. This is negative for the market and is sending a signal to sell.
Last edited by RageWizard; 05-06-08 at 07:33 AM.
Now the market has opened and as expected the XLF has gapped up about $0.40. Now I will sit back for the next 30 minutes and see what happens.
The chart below is the XLY or consumer discretionary sector. The chart shows that it is about as high as it has been all year with the stochatics in the over sold region.
Last edited by RageWizard; 05-06-08 at 07:33 AM.
The next sector chart is the XLB or the Material sector. The chart here shows the it also has been climbing the hill lately and has moved into the overbought region, the volume has been steady and today Alcoa reports so I think that I will put in another short play here on this etf.
Last edited by RageWizard; 05-06-08 at 07:33 AM.
Finally my long play today it is the XLK etf or the tech sector. The chart show some consolidation and if the market starts to go today, I think this will be one of the leading sectors alone with the financials.
Last edited by RageWizard; 05-06-08 at 07:33 AM.
So here are the positions in quick look.
Already have:
DIA short at $126.31 with 100 shares, stop at $128.31
Looking to place:
XLK long
XLF short if there is no follow through volume
XLY short
XLB short
There is no follow through volume for the XLF so I am shorting here at $26.50 for 100 shares which happens to be right at the 50 day moving average. I will place a stop at $27.00.
I also shorted XLY at $32.00 for 100 shares with a stop at $32.50.
XLB gapped up today and it is way overbought so I will try a short play right now at $43.59 for 100 shares and a stop at $44.50
What the hell, I need to actually start working today sometime so I also bought 100 shares of XLB at 23.42. I will place a stop at $22.75.
Obviously I can't short XLB at 43.59 and then 5 minutes later go long for 23.42. The second post is supposed to be a long play on XLK, not XLB. Sorry.Originally Posted by RageWizard
Alright the market is ready to take the plunge and thus fill up my account but the bulls have been persistent the last couple of days. All I need is a little more bad news and this baby is going to tumble.
Looking at this stuff is like me trying to read chinese. You know your shit though!
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This is easy, just read this shit for the next couple of months and you'll be an expert. Like me you won't know shit about any companies but you will know when they are buying and selling the stock for the companies, which is all that matters.
I think it is time to cut my losses on XLK (Technology etf), I bought it at 23.42 and placed a stop at 22.75. I am convinced that a sell off is coming so I'm getting out now at 22.95, that represents a 2 % loss.
The market is floppin around as it starts to go down. The leading indicator that I use is caught between the 200 day moving average and the 50 day moving average. The 50 day moving average is offering support for the market at this time. If the IWM gets below 69.50, then we should see some significant movement to the down side. That wold be great as all the other shorts that I picked up this week would benefit.
We have a Fed rate cut coming next week. Careful with them shorts.
My outlook. Market downturn by end of April. Next pop mid-May.
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The fed doesn't have to many rate cut tricks left in the bag but if he came in this afternoon and did it, I would need to cover the short positions real quick like. After today hopefully the market keeps inching down and I can move all my stops so that I ensure that I don't lose any money on this deal. If you look at the bet this week it is all negative from me except for my hedge play on tech that I just removed so I could go all negative. Another bank melt down would be nice right about now.
The stock market is screaming up 70 points, but only two of my short plays is getting even remotely hurt XLY up $0.20 and the DIA up $0.08. l smell a Wall Street manipulation play today.
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