Buying and selling points

Illusion · 02-18-2006, 09:10 PM

What percentage of your plays do you buy or sell points. Lately I have been selling alot of points.

Dead Money · 02-18-2006, 09:21 PM

Buy...never

Sell...~60%

slacker00 · 02-18-2006, 10:43 PM

Illusion, when do you sell points?

Typically, buying/selling points isn't getting much value in itself. This is because the book is making money both ways.

Which books are you using when you're selling points? Maybe you're getting a good deal.

imgv94 · 02-18-2006, 10:49 PM

There's huge value if you love a team and they are -4.5 -106 and you can
adjust it to -5.5 and get +110.. I would say do rarely though cause
it just takes one fvck up to mess up the kool-aid.

Dark Horse · 02-18-2006, 11:19 PM

Football. Math supports buying 1/2 pt on and off 3 (even a full point through 3), and on and off 7. For totals buy 1/2 pt on and off 37 only. Forget the rest. (check out the book 'win more, lose less' for more info).

Don't have numbers on basketball. For sides only, you get a free half pt if you play at Skybook. Could be good for middling as well.

Illusion · 02-19-2006, 12:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slacker00

Which books are you using when you're selling points?

I sell them at Pinnacle slacker.

imgv94 · 02-19-2006, 12:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Illusion

I sell them at Pinnacle slacker.

Isn't Pinnacle the only one that offers that??

raiders72001 · 02-19-2006, 12:28 AM

img- Pinnacle has drop down boxes that you can sell and other books set a price such as 5 cents per 1/2 point. They only go up to a certain spread since getting 5 cents for 1/2 point at a line of 23 would be player advantage.

BigDaddy · 02-19-2006, 01:07 AM

Pinnacle's Drop down box is the best!

pags11 · 02-19-2006, 01:25 AM

bigdaddy...I agree...this has made pinnacle get even more of my college hoops action...

I sell 5x more than I buy...did by a half point and laid 3 (-114) with Stanford tommorrow...just a hunch...

turbobets · 02-19-2006, 01:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

Don't have numbers on basketball.

Posted my link to Half Point Chart for NFL, NCAA Basketball, NBA and College Hoops games in Promotion Forum.

Dark Horse · 02-19-2006, 02:37 AM

Thanks. Those NFL numbers are very different than the ones I have. A push percentage of 7.9% on a 14-pt spread? How far do those numbers go back?

Dark Horse · 02-19-2006, 03:53 AM

If those NBA numbers are right, the half pt on spreads 16 or lower is worth an average of 3.7%. Is that worth it?

Skybook offers a free half point, but at -110. For every 100 bet, the winner gets 90.90.
Pinnacle offers the same bet at -105. For every 100 bet, the winner gets 95.24.

The 3.7% on a 100 wager is 3.70. Somebody may want to check the math, but it looks like the Skybook offer ends up at 94.60 (90.90 +3.70); still below the 95.24 at Pinnacle.

So the free 1/2 pt at Skybook may only be interesting for middles. Anybody feel like doing the numbers?

:0000024:
This weekend...

turbobets · 02-19-2006, 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

Thanks. Those NFL numbers are very different than the ones I have. A push percentage of 7.9% on a 14-pt spread? How far do those numbers go back?

NFL - 20 yrs
NCAA Football - 10 yrs
NBA - 10 yrs
College Hoops - 5 yrs

The sample sizes are so small in football for the higher pointspreads (over 7.0) that I would not put a lot of stock in them.

turbobets · 02-21-2006, 01:27 AM

I just checked my numbers and I actually used 15 years of data for the NFL chart.

bigboydan · 02-21-2006, 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Illusion

What percentage of your plays do you buy or sell points. Lately I have been selling alot of points.

i'd sell them pending what other books might have the line at.

Ganchrow · 02-21-2006, 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

If those NBA numbers are right, the half pt on spreads 16 or lower is worth an average of 3.7%.

Actually, the chart gives a weighted average of 3.9% (total pushes for line <= 16 points / total games for line <= 16 points = 246 / 6,288 ≈ 3.9%).

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

Skybook offers a free half point, but at -110. For every 100 bet, the winner gets 90.90.
Pinnacle offers the same bet at -105. For every 100 bet, the winner gets 95.24.

The 3.7% on a 100 wager is 3.70. Somebody may want to check the math, but it looks like the Skybook offer ends up at 94.60 (90.90 +3.70); still below the 95.24 at Pinnacle.

Your mathematical reasoning here is flawed. If you're trying to increase expected value by 3.7% you can't just add 3.7 to the "to win" quantity as this is only realized with 50% frequency. By doing this you're only increasing your expectancy by 3.7%/2 = 1.85%.

Using your 3.7% figure, and moving from a spread of +3 to +3½, we'd hit the 3 3.7% of the time. This means that (instead of winning 48.15% of the time, pushing 3.7%, and losing 48.15% of the time) we'd win 48.15% + 3.70% = 51.85% of the time and lose 48.15% of the time. The expected value of that at -110 is -48.15% + 51.85% * 100/110 ≈ -1.01%. This is equivalent to a lineset of about -102.1.

Using your 3.7% figure, and moving from a spread of +2½ to +3, we'd hit the 3 3.7% of the time. This means that (instead of winning 50% of the time and losing 50% of the time) we'd win 50% of the time, push 3.7% of the time, and lose 46.3% of the time. This means we'd win 51.92% of the time we didn't push and lose 48.08% of the time we didn't push. The expected value of that at -110 is -48.08% + 51.92% * 100/110 ≈ -0.88%. This is equivalent to a lineset of about -101.8.

So assuming a push rate of 3.7%, the free half point at -110 is considerably better than no free half point at -105.