[RageWizard]

It is the last day of the quarter and I usually take these days off, but I still break down the market. As usual I look at the IWM chart first. It shoes that the price is right below the 50 day moving average and well aboe the area of support. The stochastics show that it is in a sell off mode with the two indicator lines above the 50% mark. The volume indicates that for each day that passes, there are less and less sellers.

[RageWizard]

The S&P chart shows pretty much the same as the IWM chart. The stochastics are in the same area as the IWM chart with the price still well above the area of support.

[RageWizard]

The chart for the financials XLF shows that the etf is selling off but the stochastics took a nose dive to the oversold area and the volume of sellers has been diminishing as the days go by.

[RageWizard]

The VIX index is down in the low territory still and the stochastics are in the oversold area. This index has been in this area for a while now.

So what do all these charts mean? Basically with today being the end of the quarter, the IWM and S&P still going down but with less volume, and the VIX index staying in the low territory, it means that there will be a bunch of window dressing today with fund managers. It would be hard to predict today's movement in any sector with so many of them looking so bad. I will take today off and probably come back either tomorrow or Wednesday and re-evaluate.

[RageWizard]

A sector that I will be looking at hard in the next coming weeks will be the Technology sector XLK. It has been in a tight trading range for the last 2 months ( consolidation), and is currently headed to the oversold territory on the stochastics. The ETF is hovering around the 50 day moving average, and lately there have been several volume spikes.

[RageWizard]

A look at the XLK weekly chart shows that like all but a few sectors this too has been beaten down for the year so far. In the last two weeks it has been showing some life and is starting to head up. The stochastics are near the oversold territory and also heading up. So the bottom line is this. Stay on the sidelines today, if the XLF were having a pick up in volume I would be saying a big market fall is still ahead in the near future, but the financials are showing a slow down in selling volume which generally indicates that the market will not sell off. Just about all of the sectors look bad as far as going long in concerned. Traditionally April is a good month for stocks and especially tech but it is a little early for entry and with today being the last day of the quarter, take the day off and re-evaluate on tuesday.

[BrentCrude]

Remember in the old days of CNBC where they had a big staff with a lot of characters mixed in.John Murphy was Mr.charts.I don't see him at all anymore.Then you had that Dan Dorfman who was ancient at the time and has since taken a dirt nap.He was a supreme paid touter-schill and tons of people got burnt taking his advice.Their new crew is sort of vanilla and tasteless.When it comes to all these Maria Barteroma's and such,it all boils down to them being stock market cheerleaders who are in denial as to how bad the underlining economy really is.

[RageWizard]

This is so true Brent. They still know how to get me to watch by having Maria and now that Becky Quick chick who doesn't even know the difference from a bid and ask. I admit to having a tilt towards women, I can't seem to stop making friends with them or talking to them. It gets me in trouble all the time with the wife even though my intensions are benign.

[RageWizard]

Got any thoughts on SGP dropping $5.00 today, I know the details, but think its kinda over done. May make a trade out of this, opinion on trying to get .50-1.00 out of it before Friday?

later

Looks like bad news for the plough from the Vytorin drug. What did somebody turn up dead? Well anyways since this morning's gap down, there has been very little volume, with this info gap openings usually try to fill back in. I think that is what is going to happen here as long as there is a favorable market. i.e. not a major sell off in the next few days.

[RageWizard]

Alright I was on a freaking plane all day so I couldn't check out the market. The dow is up almost 400 today. On better than normal volume. As a play for profit taking tommorrow, I'm going to short the diamonds (DIA) at 126.31 for 100 shares. I don't have time to post the chart but the dow is at a level of resitance, or at the high for the year which is around 12,700. Don't be fooled by people saying that the bottom has arrived and it is the time to jump in. We have earnings coming out soon and EARNINGS are the only thing that will turn the market around. All the market sentiment is still very negative.

[HedgeHog]

Tough 1st quarter, lost 10% of my retirement funds. I think it's a buying opportunity.

[RageWizard]

Hold off don't be fooled by the last 2 days. They are trying to get the money into the market for the next couple of days because when earnings come out they will be compared to last years and that is when the pull back will happen. If you went long the last couple of days thats great but be prepared to exit real quick, like before the end of the week, i would keep tight stops on the positions that I had now. as a matter of fact I forgot to put one one my DIA. I think that I'll give it a $2.00 stop.

[RageWizard]

Closed position in SGP @ $15.03.

8-0 on 2008 trades.

I got another one for ya to look at this morning Rage, if your interested.Also. I know its not your favorite stock, but you were looking for a stock that had a good looking chart, look at CPST chart from the $1.10 level to present at $2.30., and confirm what I believe is a pretty decent looking chart from mid Oct. to present.

later

I remember you telling me about this stock a couple of months ago. Your right and good job finding a stock that you can be a long term investor in right now. My reluctance a couple of months ago shows that I still can't let my emotions for a stock go all the way yet. I was obviously early for a long play a couple of years ago, and believe it or not I do put down long term speculations from time to time. This stock has doubled in 6 months. I may put some in on this one. Do you think that there is more in the tank. The train left the station 6 months ago and a 100% move is great. The volume is still good and the stochastics haven't been in the oversold territory for at least 2 months on the daily.

[RageWizard]

O.K. all you need to know about the market is this, there was no buying volume to push the market over the top today because there is no new money coming back into the market yet. I expect a sell off in the coming weeks and before you know it we will be down at the years lows.

See Ya since I already solved the emergency problems here in Stockton CA., I'm taking tommorrow off and checking out Yosemity park, which is nearby. So this may be it for the week for me unless I get bored or drunk. The only position that I have on is the short of the DIA (Dow Jones spider) which got 100 shares at 126.31, and I placed a stop at 128.31. The price is now 125.81 which means that it hasn't really moved just yet even though the market is down 75 at the moment.

[ShamsWoof10]

There are two things that are happening for A FACT..

1. Currency is being devalued..

2. Liquidity is coming in at a greater rate each year..

If you look at countries where this has happened you will notice that once that liquidity hit the markets they went threw the roof... Throw in the fact that the Fed. just expand their powers and there you go... It takes time for it to get into the system but once it does the market will FLLLY and that will NOT be good because if that happens then milk might be a lot more then it is now...

My friend owns a carryout and he told me that his cost for MILK has gone up AGAIN for the 8th time in the last year and a half...

[RageWizard]

You're right Sham man, liquidity will make the market fly as it did for a couple of years before, and the Fed is taking over being a piggy bank for the financials, so watch out. That is why I see high inflation and interest rates coming soon like at the end of the year. The lowering of interest rates only hurts the dollar and helps the inflation. The fed will see this as soon as their friends who own us (China) give them a call and tell them they are going to start dumping our paper.

[ShamsWoof10]

You're right Sham man, liquidity will make the market fly as it did for a couple of years before, and the Fed is taking over being a piggy bank for the financials, so watch out. That is why I see high inflation and interest rates coming soon like at the end of the year. The lowering of interest rates only hurts the dollar and helps the inflation. The fed will see this as soon as their friends who own us (China) give them a call and tell them they are going to start dumping our paper.

I sure hope we are wrong RW...

[RageWizard]

Got a new trade today, very risky and speculative AMR airlines, took a small position of 2.5k shares at $6.30 today. Looking for $7.00 a share, with a stop loss set at $5.91.

9-0 2008 trades

later

Are you nuts taking an airline with the oil flying higher than the airplanes?

All my short plays are starting to work this week. The stock market, like my wife when she wants another cat, has been going down hard for most of the week. I think it will continue until we get back to the march levels at least.