[Ganchrow]

The following is an analysis of winning scenarios for the SBR contest. (Note that SBR employees are ineligible to receive any prize money.)

The "1st", "2nd", "3rd", and "4th" columns refer to the number of scenarios where the player finishes 1st through 4th respectively.

The "Any" column refers to the number of scenarios where the player anywhere in the money (1st - 10th place).

Players tying for a given spot are a fractional finish, so if 3 players tie for 1st place, each will be awarded a third of 1st though 3rd places (with the next player in the money receiving a credit for 4th place).

The "Average" column refers to the dollar weighted average for that player across all scenarios. Please note that these are not expectations, but rather simple averages, judging all possible scenarios equally likely. I've included the raw data for anyone wishing to calculate actual expectations.

Players with averages ≥ $0:

Player	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	Any	Average
The HG	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	$2,000.00
MadCapper	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	$556.25
HedgeHog	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	$556.25
onlker	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	$500.00
darko3131	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	$312.50
wildcatfan42	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	$250.00
rake922	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	$237.50
lechu	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	2	$137.50
ego74	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	$87.50
Truckerace	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	$87.50
jt16	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	$62.50
pjengle	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	$62.50
topher79	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	$62.50
wtt0315	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	$62.50
donjuan	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	$25.00

Please note that while I've made every attempt to provide as accurate information as possible, mistakes do happen. As such I can provide no guarantees as to the accuracy of any data within this thread.

[Ganchrow]

see above

[Ganchrow]

Following are average player results given the 8 possible combinations of national championships winners and losers. Once again, the dollar values shown are simple averages and not expectations.

Only players with averages ≥ $0 are shown.

[Ganchrow]

Kansas over Memphis

The HG         	$2,000 
onlker         	$750 
HedgeHog       	$750 
wildcatfan42   	$400 
rake922        	$325 
lechu          	$225 
Truckerace     	$175 
jt16           	$125 
pjengle        	$125 
topher79       	$125

Memphis over Kansas

The HG         	$2,000 
MadCapper      	$1,000 
darko3131      	$500 
onlker         	$362.50 
HedgeHog       	$362.50 
wildcatfan42   	$225 
ego74          	$175 
rake922        	$150 
wtt0315        	$125 
donjuan        	$50 
lechu          	$50

[Ganchrow]

The attached file (raw.zip) contains two text files: res.txt and eng.txt.

res.txt contains for each of the (currently) 32,768 scenarios and money finishers: place #, player name, player score, and player wins (all tab-separated). Each scenario is given as a binary code prepended by the string "==". The ith digit of the code refers to the winner of the ith game where a "0" would mean a victory by the team on top (as shown in the SBR bracket listing) and a "1" a victory by the team on the bottom. The 1st 8 games are the round of 16, the next 4 the round of 8, the next 2 the round of 4, and the last 1 the national championship. Games are ordered within each round starting from the top left of the SBR brackets, moving down to the bottom left, and then continuing on the top right, and moving down to the bottom right.

eng.txt contains for each plain English outcomes (same game ordering as above) the actual dollar result for each money finisher.

These files will be updated at the end of every coming round.

Download raw.zip here (915 bytes)

[dwaechte]

Very cool stuff Ganch. Glad to see I've still got a shot.

[SBR Lou]

Wow that looks like a ton of work to compute. Great stuff.

[Justin7]

Ganch -

can you run the same sims using moneylines to figure odds of the next match up, and Sagarin ratings for theoretical match ups after that?

[donjuan]

can you run the same sims using moneylines to figure odds of the next match up, and Sagarin ratings for theoretical match ups after that?

Why not just use the futures markets where you get odds for reaching the Final 4, championship game and champion?

[Justin7]

Why not just use the futures markets where you get odds for reaching the Final 4, championship game and champion?

I asked Olympic if they could pay me based on my expected value instead of the actual results. Sadly, they said no.

[donjuan]

I asked Olympic if they could pay me based on my expected value instead of the actual results. Sadly, they said no.

I'd even take my expected growth.

[Ganchrow]

Wow that looks like a ton of work to compute.

And it was even tougher than you might have thought -- my abacus was broken at the time I ran the computations.

[Ganchrow]

Ganch -

can you run the same sims using moneylines to figure odds of the next match up, and Sagarin ratings for theoretical match ups after that?

I'm still waiting for a complete and coherent futures market to emerge.

In the meantime, the raw data is available for anyone wishing to perform his or her own expected value analysis.

[Ganchrow]

So since I am nowhere on the downloaded files, does that mean I have no shot to win?

The analysis does not take into account the fact that SBR employees are not prize eligible. This effect might create a potential winner where none previously existed.

Other than that ... no, you have no shot.

[Ganchrow]

Following are expected values for each player's bracket entry (for EVs ≥ $0). The probabilities on which the Evs were based follow below:

Player	EV
The HG	$2,000.00
onlker	$556.00
HedgeHog	$556.00
MadCapper	$500.00
wildcatfan42	$312.50
darko3131	$250.00
rake922	$237.50
lechu	$137.50
Truckerace	$87.50
ego74	$87.50
wtt0315	$62.50
jt16	$62.50
topher79	$62.50
pjengle	$62.50
donjuan	$25.00

[Ganchrow]

And here are the conditional probabilities assumed (data comes from an unspecified combination of Pinnacle+WSEX+Greek):

Team 		Championship
Kansas (1)	50%
Memphi (1)	50%

Complaints as to the perceived accuracy of the above figures will not be entertained.

[Checkerboard]

Thanks Ganchrow. This had to be a fair amount of work!

[slacker00]

Yes. Thanks Ganchrow.

Nice to know I've still got a shot with the two big favs.

C'mon UCLA over UNC in the final.

[Sportsgirl]

And it was even tougher than you might have thought -- my abacus was broken at the time I ran the computations.

That sounds painful.

[Ganchrow]

Data has been updated to include last night's results.

[Robyn]

I am very sad that Tennessee effed us.

[RickySteve]

No update?

[Sean]

Ganchrow should be back in a couple of days with updates.

[donjuan]

I have ~$220 in equity by my calculations. If you give me the scenarios where you cash, I can give you your equity (based on my estimations) as well.

[rake922]

Don what am I?

[RickySteve]

Don what am I?

Your equity is $19.86.

[RickySteve]

I have ~$220 in equity by my calculations. If you give me the scenarios where you cash, I can give you your equity (based on my estimations) as well.

I have you at $230.33.

[HedgeHog]

Keep in mind that the prize money will be in the form of "free play" which is worth roughly half that of actual cash prizes. I bring this up in case anyone is considering hedging.

PRIZES:
• Total Purse: $5000 from Las Palmas
• Prizes awarded in the form of free play accounts at Las Palmas• All cash prizes subject to 5x rollover and Las Palmas terms & conditions• Top 10 Finishers’ accounts at Las Palmas will be credited as follows --

1. $2,000
2. $1,000
3. $500
4. $400
5. $325
6. $225
7. $175
8. $150
9. $125
10. $100

[rake922]

Alot of the above information is wrong... I think

[donjuan]

Keep in mind that the prize money will be in the form of "free play" which is worth roughly half that of actual cash prizes. I bring this up in case anyone is considering hedging.

When you get free plays you should not be betting +100 lines.

Rake,

What information is wrong?

RickySteve,

Thanks.

[HedgeHog]

When you get free plays you should not be betting +100 lines.

Rake,

What information is wrong?

RickySteve,

Thanks.

Agree about the use of free plays. Just wanted to give people the heads up on the actual prizes. With Free Plays you forfeit your stake on each bet, so their value is certainly less than actual cash.

[rake922]

I just find it hard to beleive I have an Equity of $19.86

(I'm in 3rd place as of now)

[donjuan]

I believe there was a decimal error there.