SBR Bracket Contest Scenario Analysis

Ganchrow · 03-23-2008, 11:14 PM

The following is an analysis of winning scenarios for the SBR contest. (Note that SBR employees are ineligible to receive any prize money.)

The "1st", "2nd", "3rd", and "4th" columns refer to the number of scenarios where the player finishes 1st through 4th respectively.

The "Any" column refers to the number of scenarios where the player anywhere in the money (1st - 10th place).

Players tying for a given spot are a fractional finish, so if 3 players tie for 1st place, each will be awarded a third of 1st though 3rd places (with the next player in the money receiving a credit for 4th place).

The "Average" column refers to the dollar weighted average for that player across all scenarios. Please note that these are not expectations, but rather simple averages, judging all possible scenarios equally likely. I've included the raw data for anyone wishing to calculate actual expectations.

Players with averages ≥ $0:

Player 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th Any Average

The HG 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 $2,000.00

MadCapper 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 $556.25

HedgeHog 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 $556.25

onlker 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 $500.00

darko3131 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 $312.50

wildcatfan42 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 $250.00

rake922 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 $237.50

lechu 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 $137.50

ego74 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 $87.50

Truckerace 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 $87.50

jt16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 $62.50

pjengle 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 $62.50

topher79 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 $62.50

wtt0315 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 $62.50

donjuan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 $25.00

Please note that while I've made every attempt to provide as accurate information as possible, mistakes do happen. As such I can provide no guarantees as to the accuracy of any data within this thread.

Ganchrow · 03-23-2008, 11:15 PM

see above

Ganchrow · 03-23-2008, 11:26 PM

Following are average player results given the 8 possible combinations of national championships winners and losers. Once again, the dollar values shown are simple averages and not expectations.

Only players with averages ≥ $0 are shown.

Ganchrow · 03-23-2008, 11:32 PM

Ganchrow · 03-24-2008, 12:07 AM

The attached file (raw.zip) contains two text files: res.txt and eng.txt.

res.txt contains for each of the (currently) 32,768 scenarios and money finishers: place #, player name, player score, and player wins (all tab-separated). Each scenario is given as a binary code prepended by the string "==". The ith digit of the code refers to the winner of the ith game where a "0" would mean a victory by the team on top (as shown in the SBR bracket listing) and a "1" a victory by the team on the bottom. The 1st 8 games are the round of 16, the next 4 the round of 8, the next 2 the round of 4, and the last 1 the national championship. Games are ordered within each round starting from the top left of the SBR brackets, moving down to the bottom left, and then continuing on the top right, and moving down to the bottom right.

eng.txt contains for each plain English outcomes (same game ordering as above) the actual dollar result for each money finisher.

These files will be updated at the end of every coming round.

Download raw.zip here (915 bytes)

dwaechte · 03-24-2008, 12:09 AM

Very cool stuff Ganch. Glad to see I've still got a shot.

CrazyL · 03-24-2008, 12:18 AM

Wow that looks like a ton of work to compute. Great stuff.

Justin7 · 03-24-2008, 02:07 AM

Ganch -

can you run the same sims using moneylines to figure odds of the next match up, and Sagarin ratings for theoretical match ups after that?

donjuan · 03-24-2008, 02:15 AM

Quote:

can you run the same sims using moneylines to figure odds of the next match up, and Sagarin ratings for theoretical match ups after that?

Why not just use the futures markets where you get odds for reaching the Final 4, championship game and champion?

Justin7 · 03-24-2008, 02:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by donjuan

Why not just use the futures markets where you get odds for reaching the Final 4, championship game and champion?

I asked Olympic if they could pay me based on my expected value instead of the actual results. Sadly, they said no.

donjuan · 03-24-2008, 02:19 AM

Quote:

I asked Olympic if they could pay me based on my expected value instead of the actual results. Sadly, they said no.

I'd even take my expected growth.

Iwinyourmoney · 03-24-2008, 04:57 AM

So since I am nowhere on the downloaded files, does that mean I have no shot to win?

Art Vandeleigh · 03-24-2008, 07:33 AM

Man, I about fell out of my chair when I saw that first list, wtf am I doing there?

I'm currently in 317th place, and the only reason I'm that high up is because my username starts with the letter "A". If I was Zachary Vandeleigh or something like that, I'd be listed as 343rd place. Also I have no real dogs left in my pound. I guess that's the power of picking a number 4 seed to go all the way.

Go Washington State and their Tenacious D!!!