[mofome]

Coppin State +6.5 vs. Mt St Mary’s: O/U 127.5

It’s not every year that we see an NCAA Tournament first, but this year will be the first time that a 20 loss team will be a part of the festivities. Coppin State went through a 21 game stretch where they lost 20, but they bounced back to win twelve of their final 13 and take their conference title. Mt St Mary’s (15-14) was not overly impressive this year, but they used a great stretch in the NEC Tournament to earn themselves an invite to March Madness 2008.

The Mountaineers do most of their damage on the defensive end where they rank in the top 50 nationally in FG% defense. Jeremy Good (5-9, guard) leads the team in steals at over 2 per contest while Sam Atupem (6-7, Forward) has 44 blocks on the season. The Mount hasn’t allowed over 70 points in any of their last nine contests and they managed to hold Sacred Heart to under 30% from the field in the NEC finals.

On a bit of a run, the Coppin State Eagles appear to be flying high, but consider this, their most favorable matchup statistic is their FT% defense. Why anyone lists such a stat I don’t know, but the numbers don’t lie. On the offensive side of the ball the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference champions rank outside of the top 315 in shooting percentage and points per game. Tywain McKee is the one outstanding talent on the Eagles and he’ll have to do it all for them to be awarded the chance to face the No.1 overall seed North Carolina Tarheels. McKee played 39 minutes against Morgan State and lit up the scoreboard for 33 points in carrying his team to this stage.

With both teams playing in an unfamiliar setting, on such a large stage, with so much at stake, I expect them to come out a bit tight. Mount St Mary’s is known for their defense while Coppin States hallmark is their ineptitude on offense. The Mount covers the six and a half while this game stays under the total.


My plays: Mt St Mary’s -6.5 & Under 127.5

[mofome]

lines at justbet

[diogee]

Thanks for the write Mofo and GL. I will follow on this one

[mofome]

Thanks for the write Mofo and GL. I will follow on this one

ty dio, bol to us

[mofome]

[trytrytry]

like Mt st MArys in this one

[Cee]

GL, i'll prolly join as well

[mofome]

time to bring a couple home.

[WestsidePete]

Mount St Mary's all the way here...I can't touch the total..they may blow their asses out....last game only 123 total pts for Mt St Mary game, the opp only shot 29%, before that 13 games in a row went over this total....7 of last 12 games Mary's has shot over 50%...Coppin St has shot over 50% ONCE ALL SEASON...Mount St Mary's -7 for me

[mofome]

Mount St Mary's all the way here...I can't touch the total..they may blow their asses out....last game only 123 total pts for Mt St Mary game, the opp only shot 29%, before that 13 games in a row went over this total....7 of last 12 games Mary's has shot over 50%...Coppin St has shot over 50% ONCE ALL SEASON...Mount St Mary's -7 for me

nice info as always Pete

[trojan87]

i like the -6.5 play... i was on the losing end of the NEC championship game... MSM can play in great spurts, but they allowed sacred heart to come back by shooting ice cold at a couple times... still i think coppin is definately overmatched... i'd take the under too but right now matchbook has shite odds for it

[MonkeyF0cker]

I'm on Mt. St. Marys (-7) as well. Not a fan of the total in this one. GL fellas.

[WestsidePete]

nice write up mo,

definitely looks solid....

[EaglesPhan36]

I might be one of the few, but I'm on Coppin & the points. Outside of their non-conference schedule, this team has only been beaten by more than 7 twice in conference play since Jan.1. Sure, they aren't pretty. But this is a senior-laden squad that found ways to win when they needed to in the last 6 weeks of the season. I personally think the FG% defense stat is over-rated. Look at PPG allowed. Coppin is 107th in the nation and MSTM is 117, not a whole lot of difference for the 5% difference in FG% defense. I do agree that Coppin is obviously not a great shooting club, but during their streak where they've won 12 of 13 ... they are averaging 67.8 PPG - almost 9 better than their "season" average which was heavily skewed by a brutal non-conference schedule. Mt. St.Mary's may win, but 7 points is too much to pass up for me in a game that should be tight IMO.

[mofome]

I might be one of the few, but I'm on Coppin & the points. Outside of their non-conference schedule, this team has only been beaten by more than 7 twice in conference play since Jan.1. Sure, they aren't pretty. But this is a senior-laden squad that found ways to win when they needed to in the last 6 weeks of the season. I personally think the FG% defense stat is over-rated. Look at PPG allowed. Coppin is 107th in the nation and MSTM is 117, not a whole lot of difference for the 5% difference in FG% defense. I do agree that Coppin is obviously not a great shooting club, but during their streak where they've won 12 of 13 ... they are averaging 67.8 PPG - almost 9 better than their "season" average which was heavily skewed by a brutal non-conference schedule. Mt. St.Mary's may win, but 7 points is too much to pass up for me in a game that should be tight IMO.

i think the gf% defense is actually more important than ppg. style of play dictates a lot of your ppga, your fg% defense can not be masked.

[EaglesPhan36]

Style will be a big part for sure. Telling sign will be FG attempts. Coppin usually out-shoots their opponents no matter what the %. Mt. Saint Mary's last 5 losses have come in games where they were out-shot by opponents hitting at a 43% clip or less. And again Coppin's FG% D if you want to use that stat has been much better during their hot streak than what the season stats show. I guess basically I am looking more at recent play for Coppin than the whole body of work for my analysis in this one because that's the team I believe will show up. Of course I could be totally off.

[mofome]

Style will be a big part for sure. Telling sign will be FG attempts. Coppin usually out-shoots their opponents no matter what the %. Mt. Saint Mary's last 5 losses have come in games where they were out-shot by opponents hitting at a 43% clip or less. And again Coppin's FG% D if you want to use that stat has been much better during their hot streak than what the season stats show. I guess basically I am looking more at recent play for Coppin than the whole body of work for my analysis in this one because that's the team I believe will show up. Of course I could be totally off.

yeah, but when were mt st marys last 5 losses? they've been playing much better of late. each of these teams finished their regular season well before making their conf tourney run.

[hoopster42]

i'm with you on it mofo and got in early as i thot the line would drop, instead it went up! surprising

[SchlepRock]

I'm on Mt. St. Marys (-7) as well. Not a fan of the total in this one. GL fellas.

Im with you on Mary not sure about the total

[mofome]

i'm with you on it mofo and got in early as i thot the line would drop, instead it went up! surprising

we've gained a point and a half on the total and a half on the game.

[hoopster42]

we've gained a point and a half on the total and a half on the game.

i have a habit of never fully reading and comprehending, LOL, i am lazy i guess, i am on coppin state plus here, i think theyve got too much momentum as of the past month or so

[JColli32]

i am on coppin state in this game but BOL to u guys

[mofome]

uh oh, gl hoops and JC

[OLGC_Slayer]

I'm on Mount St Marys ML and Under.

[mofome]

I'm on Mount St Marys ML and Under.

music to my ears.

[WestsidePete]

I'm staying with Mt St Mary's -7 and teased the under on a play as well...

[SchlepRock]

Thank You Saint Mary!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

[mofome]

lord, only needed there to be 8 or less in the last 56 seconds.

[EaglesPhan36]

Thank the refs for the FTs. That disparity from Coppin to STM was ridiculous. Lots of bumps that went called one way and not called the other. I hate officiating like that. Either call em all or none at all. And I am going to be ranting about that damn technical foul for another day or two, bear with me.


Nice call on the side I suppose Mo. At least someone got some enjoyment out of that game.

[trytrytry]

like Mt st MArys in this one

good start to the dance..

[mofome]

good start to the dance..

well done TTT