NCAA Basketball Pick: (20-12)
Stanford (-1.5) vs. Washington State: O/U 116
Stanford: (RPI #18, Sagarin #11)
25-6 overall
15-16 ATS
14-5 conference
13-17 O/U
SOS: 75
Washington State: (RPI #20, Sagarin #12)
24-7 overall
16-14 ATS
12-7 conference
15-15 O/U
SOS: 47
The Washington State Cougars and Stanford Cardinal will meet for the third time this season when they tip off just before midnight tonight. In each of their previous meetings, the Cougars jumped out to decent sized first half leads before the Cardinal made some adjustments and took both games. Everyone says its difficult to beat a team three times in one season, well the Cougars took down the Ducks for the third time last night, now the Cardinal try to turn the trick themselves.
Last night The Trees used a big second half to put away the Arizona Wildcats. Stanford was able to find something that worked and they stuck with it throughout the final 20 minutes of play to put the game away. After being tied up at the break, the Cardinal simply fed the Lopez twins all half and crashed the offensive glass; that allowed them to pull away and advance to this stage of the event. Arizona was really no match inside and Stanford abandoned their inconsistent perimeter attack.
Washington State didn’t close out their contest quite as smoothly. After amassing a 14 point halftime lead, the Cougars watched the Ducks climb back into the game before finally salting things away at the free throw line. State allowed an uncharacteristic 52% shooting from the field and really only held a statistical advantage in turnovers when the final second fell off the clock; that proved to be enough.
Tonight’s matchup will feature two teams that rely on defense to win games, each team ranks in the top 15 in points allowed per game. Washington State isn’t as good a defensive team as the Cardinal, but they do limit the possessions of their opposition and that allows them to keep scores low. The cardinal dominate their opponents by winning the rebounding battle, which they’re likely to do tonight, and by keeping teams under 40% from the field.
In each of the earlier meetings the total sat at 118, but that’s been adjusted a bit to 115 tonight. In conference, Stanford is averaging 42.3% from the field and allowing just 39.7% while the cougars are first in the league in points allowed. On the other hand, Stanford has gone over in eight of their last nine and this will be the lowest total they’ve been a part of all season.
Last night he No. 2 seed Stanford Cardinal used a huge rebounding advantage to get the win while Washington State struggled to hang on to a big early lead and allowed over 50% shooting from the field. If Stanford can have anywhere near that kind of success against the Cougars they should have enough of an advantage to advance once again. I like the Cardinal laying 1.5.
Pick: Stanford -1.5 (Matchbook)
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Originally Posted by Sportsgirl
