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  1. #1

    Default Sonics +3500 5Dimes

    I think I will get a little down on this, as these are pro's. Need a 40 point night from Durant lol!

  2. #2

    Default

    Celts will win by 24
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 05/17/2012

    2143pts

    TOP SPORTSBOOK
    WINNER
    05/26/2012


  3. #3

    Post

    Lottery ticket pays +1000000000. Doesn't mean it's a good investment

  4. #4

  5. #5

    Default

    You'll need an 80-point night from Durant and a bus to run over Kevin Garnett.

  6. #6

    Default

    eh...Celtics lost to who again back to back???? Wizards??? I forget, but someone not so good in a week span, anything can happen it's the NBA!!!! PAVLIC, GOOD LUCK!!

  7. #7

    Default

    I am simply saying that pro's against pro's i'll take 35 to 1

  8. #8
    tevari's Avatar SBR PRO
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    Default

    it's worth 50 bucks IMHO

  9. #9

    Default

    Agreed here with the reasoning...after all, these are professionals. I mean, BOS did lose to Charlotte this year at home as 14 pt favs.

    Good luck John...

    SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005


  10. #10
    Bill Dozer's Avatar Administrator
    Join Date: 07-12-05
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    Default

    I like it. It will keep a boring game interesting.

    SBR Founder Join Date: 7/12/2005


  11. #11

    Default

    Good luck Bill with your SEA ML bet too....

    SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005


  12. #12

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Dozer View Post
    I like it. It will keep a boring game interesting.
    Yeah, interesting the first 2-3 minutes until the game settles in. Over by half most likely.

  13. #13

  14. #14

    Default

    yea Boston will not allow the Sonics to beat them in Boston. GL you will need it.

  15. #15

    Default

    I dont need good luck this is a value play thats all i expect them to lose if they dont i make a ton of money

  16. #16

    Default

    Just out of interest, what do you estimate the true odds to be for this game?

  17. #17

    Default

    well out of all the dogs today I would rank the Sonics of probably having the least value. You have a better chance at winning the lottery

  18. #18

  19. #19

    Default

    well out of all the dogs today I would rank the Sonics of probably having the least value. You have a better chance at winning the lottery
    Then you're all over Boston moneyline?

  20. #20

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by donjuan View Post
    Then you're all over Boston moneyline?
    No that makes no sense, I never said that. It was probably like -3000. It does not make sense to risk 3000 to win 100.

  21. #21

    Default

    No that makes no sense, I never said that. It was probably like -3000. It does not make sense to risk 3000 to win 100.
    It absolutely makes sense. +EV, +EG bet with almost no TVM issue. What kind of idiot passes that up?

    Hint: If one line is +3500 and you can find another at -3000, at least one of these is a good bet.

  22. #22

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by donjuan View Post
    It absolutely makes sense. +EV, +EG bet with almost no TVM issue. What kind of idiot passes that up?

    Hint: If one line is +3500 and you can find another at -3000, at least one of these is a good bet.
    I just guessed what it was. It was probably more like -4000. I don't lay that kind of juice.

  23. #23

    Default

    I just guessed what it was. It was probably more like -4000. I don't lay that kind of juice.
    Not laying that kind of juice when it is a good bet is moronic in the extreme.

  24. #24

    Default

    Well buddy I believe in the phrase "thats why they play the game"

  25. #25

    Default

    Well buddy I believe in the phrase "thats why they play the game"
    LOL. So what % of the time do the Sonics win this game and what percent of the time do the Celtics win?

  26. #26

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by donjuan View Post
    LOL. So what % of the time do the Sonics win this game and what percent of the time do the Celtics win?
    probably 1

  27. #27

    Default

    So the Celtics win the game 99% of the time and you wouldn't take -3000? You, sir, either hate money or should have a legal guardian for the rest of your life and probably both.

    Hint: after 500 bets at -3000 with a 99% chance of winning on a 10k bankroll, your median bankroll would be over 2.2 million.

  28. #28

    Default

    Nah man I am just a small player. I only risk $100 a game.

  29. #29

    Default

    Nah man I am just a small player. I only risk $100 a game.
    So you hate money?

  30. #30

    Default

    Just in case you were wondering,

    Starting Bankroll: $100
    Odds for bet: -3000
    Chance of winning: 99%
    1000 bets

    Median bankroll: $4.2 million

  31. #31

  32. #32

    Post

    Quote Originally Posted by donjuan View Post
    Just in case you were wondering,

    Starting Bankroll: $100
    Odds for bet: -3000
    Chance of winning: 99%
    1000 bets

    Median bankroll: $4.2 million
    What the hell is median bankroll?

    If you made a 1000 bets for a 100 a piece and won 100% at -4000 you'd only be up 2500 and if you bet 1000-game parlay any one of the expected 10 losses would break you, so strange math

  33. #33

    Default

    It's what your median bankroll is after betting full Kelly x number of times.

  34. #34
    durito's Avatar SBR PRO
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    Quote Originally Posted by MJFtheGenius View Post
    I just guessed what it was. It was probably more like -4000. I don't lay that kind of juice.

    -4100 (on a -4100/3100 line set as this closed at pinnacle) is far less juice than -105 (on a -105/-105 line set). What kind of juice are you willing to pay?

  35. #35

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by durito View Post
    -4100 (on a -4100/3100 line set as this closed at pinnacle) is far less juice than -105 (on a -105/-105 line set). What kind of juice are you willing to pay?

    Hoops I normally play a straight bet -110 but once in awhile I will play a moneyline parlay and I will go up to -200 or slightly higher.

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