[mofome]

San Jose St (RPI #236, Sagarin #245)
12-18 overall
10-15 ATS
4-12 conference
15-10 ATS
SOS: 209

Louisiana Tech (RPI #325, Sagarin #324)
6-23 overall
14-11 ATS
3-13 Conference
14-11 O/u
SOS: 247



The Western Athletic Conference Tournament gets under way tonight as the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs meet the San Jose Spartans as a six and a half point underdog. These two teams have met twice since the middle of February with the home side winning each contest. Tech only has six wins on the year, but they've won two in a row and one vs the team they'll be matched up with tonight.

La Tech has not had much success in the 2007-2008 season, they actually have zero wins vs. teams that are ranked in the RPI top 170. The Bulldogs are essentially a one man show on offense with Sophomore Guard, Kyle Gibson, leading the way. Gibson averages over 16 and a half per game and notched 28 points in the season finally vs. San Jose State. In fact, Gibson has proved difficult for the Spartans to stop in each of their meetings this year as he has put up 25-plus in both matchups. Outisde of their star, this team is absolutely abysmal. Tech ranks 331st in the nation in FG% and 338th in rebounding margin. Keep in mind, these rankings only consist of 341 total teams.

San Jose State is a bit of a different story. The Spartans have several wins over the RPI's top 100 and even a win over the conference champion Utah State Aggies. The concern here for the favorite is the fact that they've lost five straight since that win, SJST has not found a way to win or cover in any of those outings. The bright spot for the Spartans should be a huge advantage on the boards. During the regular season San Jose State was one of the best rebounding teams in the league while their opponent was the most anemic.

Neither one of these teams ranks in the top 260 in FG% defense which leads me to believe there will be plenty of open looks for these kids tonight. The game isn't one with a lot of pressure as each team is going to try their best to win, but each knows that their main focus is getting ready for the 08-09 season. Each meeting between these schools in '08 has gone over, the over is seven and one in Techs last eight games, and the over has cashed in ten of the Bulldogs last thirteen. These stats obviously indicate the the over is something to consider.

Looking at the sides we see that the Spartans have annihilated La Tech on the boards in each of their previous meetings but they have yet to really put Tech away. San Jose has some decent wins on the year, but they've been beaten badly in their two most recent games and they've lost two in a row to teams ranked outside of the top 300. Yes, they've lost their last two matchups with teams ranked outside of the top 300.

San Jose State is the better side here, and is likely to dominate the glass again, but I have a lot of trouble backing a team that's not proven it can beat teams outside of the top 300 even at home. I will take the over tonight as the Spartans score with second chance points and Gibson does his best to keep his team in the game.

my play: Over 131 (Bookmaker)

[LT Profits]

I actually like La Tech +6.5. I don't think San Jose State should be favored by this much away from home vs. anyone. Plus, the Bulldogs have actually won two straight (one was vs. SJSU) while San Jose has lost four straight.

[mofome]

I actually like La Tech +6.5. I don't think San Jose State should be favored by this much away from home vs. anyone. Plus, the Bulldogs have actually won two straight (one was vs. SJSU) while San Jose has lost four straight.

i agree and i was leaning towards la tech myself, but that rebounding edge in each game kept me off of that side. i believe something like 42-25 and 41-17 have been the rebounding margins in the two meeting between these schools. in the one game san jose missed something like 17fts and in the other tech knocked down 50% from 3, each of those are things that could happen again, but i just don't have enough confidence in either side to do anything other than play poorly...hopefully more so on the defensive side tonight. Im looking for a lot of 2nd chance points from the Spartans and hoping Gibson can maintain his 26.5 point average SJST

[diogee]

Yeah L Tech has been outrebounded in all but 3 games this year and out-rebounded by an average of 10 per game. In the 2 meetings this year SJ has out-rebounded them by 43 combined. With that being said you would think that SJ St blew L Tech out both times but even with that SJS won once by 10 and lost the other game. I am leaning towards taking the points as well.

[WestsidePete]

San Jose St games have reached 131 or higher eight games in a row...L Tech has reached 131 nine games in a row...they recently played and scored 170...so, I'm also on the over

[junkman773]

I am on Tech+

Good Luck all

[Sportsgirl]

Nice job

[mofome]

in with the crew

[andrewaxia]

I parlayed Tech +6.5 with the over on this game.

[mofome]

I parlayed Tech +6.5 with the over on this game.

bol to you andrew!


anyone taking some tech ml?

[nevadaside]

Over baby....Over!

LOU TECH gets severely out rebounded & still wins......I'd take the 6.5 on neutral ground & run with it!

[regularguy]

Excellent thread mofome. Thanks.

I'll be on La Tech with the points, and on the over as well.

Here's what I posted last night in imgv94's ML Parlay thread. I thought I'd copy it here, in case there might be something of use to anyone:

The other dog I am looking at for tomorrow is Louisiana Tech at +5 against San Jose State. I don't know, maybe it's too simplistic, but the Bulldogs beat the Spartans three days ago. Kyle Gibson got 28 for La Tech (he averages 16.6). The Bulldogs have shown improvement lately, while the Spartans have been in freefall, after causing some talk early in the season. The Spartans have been especially bad on the road. Las Cruces is the road. And the Spartans had to get there via Ruston. You don't see roadtrips like that in Lonely Planet. Now, don't get me wrong. La Tech has sucked this year, and this play definitely holds some risk. Still, I might have to include La Tech on a parlay card one way or another. I might have to hold my nose to do it though.

Reading material:

http://latechsports.cstv.com/sports/...030808aaa.html

http://www.mercurynews.com/sportsheadlines/ci_8511529

[mofome]

Excellent thread mofome. Thanks.

I'll be on La Tech with the points, and on the over as well.

Here's what I posted last night in imgv94's ML Parlay thread. I thought I'd copy it here, in case there might be something of use to anyone:

The other dog I am looking at for tomorrow is Louisiana Tech at +5 against San Jose State. I don't know, maybe it's too simplistic, but the Bulldogs beat the Spartans three days ago. Kyle Gibson got 28 for La Tech (he averages 16.6). The Bulldogs have shown improvement lately, while the Spartans have been in freefall, after causing some talk early in the season. The Spartans have been especially bad on the road. Las Cruces is the road. And the Spartans had to get there via Ruston. You don't see roadtrips like that in Lonely Planet. Now, don't get me wrong. La Tech has sucked this year, and this play definitely holds some risk. Still, I might have to include La Tech on a parlay card one way or another. I might have to hold my nose to do it though.

Reading material:

http://latechsports.cstv.com/sports/...030808aaa.html

http://www.mercurynews.com/sportsheadlines/ci_8511529

awesome stuff RG

[mofome]

you gotta take the points

i may join you guys and take'em.


lk

[hoopster42]

tough game to call, looks like 2 cockroaches racing on the ground, but if forced i go with the fave, good luck mofo

[LT Profits]

overs the right play here i think. I wouldnt trust LA tech with a dime, let alone wager on them. Cmon guys, its la tech.

And when did San Jose State away from home become North Carolina?

Anytime its dregs vs. dregs, and one dreg is -6.5, I think the dog is always the way to go.

[ryanXL977]

if you have to bet the game, you take the dog. thats correct
but why bet this stinker? oh, yeah, im an addict
thatrs why

[frostno98]

I know the Wac pretty well, and all these guys do is jack up 3's all day. They like to take their shots early and in bunches, no one really has a good D, so the over should be easy considering the line is only 132.

[LT Profits]

BOT,

Yes, it takes balls of steel to take some of these teams, but why pass up a favorable situation? I wouldn't know how to quantify this, but I'd bet that the dogs in dregs vs. dregs situations cover at least as much as the dogs do when two top 10 teams face each other.

[LT Profits]

Fair enough BOT.

Good Luck tonight.

[mofome]

BOT LT

[mofome]

hit 133 at pinny and its at 132.5 at bookmaker, we seem to be on the right side.

[mofome]

nice big loss. i wish i knew what happened down the stretch. well, nvm, i guess i dont.

[trojan87]

aw yea took LT for +6.5 and they did not disappoint. i feel you on getting dished by LT recently BOT, so i finally bought into them and they fought the good fight. sorry about the over, sjst was not dropping in any 3s

[diogee]

Get em next time mo
You cash on L Tech +6.5?

[mofome]

yeah sj 1-9 from 3 didnt help, but i figured id get some fouls in the end of a close game, i guess not.