[Iceman]

I have been thinking about this a lot lately and I think the #1 thing most people don't think about when trying to bet sports for a living is this......

You will probably be surprised as just about anything obviously could fit as an answer to this question but it's the #1 thing I say/ask to people who ask me about if they should or could do this.

Sure most everyone knows all the basics like shop for the best line, play small pct of your bankroll, etc.... The #1 thing I have learned that I think most people don't realize who want to do this for a living is.........


You must put a minimum of 2 million dollars of risk into play a year (and this doesn't really include middles and scalps, which changes this entirely). Basically what I am saying is one of the first questions I ask someone when they say they plan on doing this for a living is, how much money do you plan on betting for a yearm putting at risk? Most don't have a clue and it my opinion this is the first thing someone needs to sit down and figure out before attempting to do this and make enough money to pay the bills, etc... Say you win at a 2% level then getting 2 million of action into play is 40k profit, which is also much harder said then done. I actually think 3 million is probably closer to what it needs to be as living comfortably off of 40k isn't enough probably for most, IMO.

I just don't think most people know this or even think about it. I read people all the time say play your top 3 games and play them for a nickel a piece, well that is only $1,500 a day of action and thats less then 550k for an entire year. Now even if you were to win an incredble 4% rate, that is only 20k profit for a year. It works out you need to play around 6k a day or even more everyday on average.

So the first thing I think someone needs to do who is seriously contemplating doing this for a living is figure out how much money per year that they think they will bet (not including scalps and middles). If it works out to only be 500k in a year then you need to either step up the volume of plays or the bet sizes to successfully do this for a living. Now those two things aren't easy to do either for various reasons as more volume means finding more +ev plays without the win pct suffering and higher bet sizes mean your plays must still fall within a certain pct of your bankroll (and I think it should be 1% of your bankroll or under per play and no higher, IMO).

Was sitting around today and thinking about sharing a few things that I have learned from two years of doing this in LV. I feel I was pretty much and still am the "common man" when it came to moving out to Las Vegas to do this as I didn't (and still don't) have a big bankroll or some super computer system either. I just hoped to get by and survive the old fashion way, through just working hard at this everyday.

I don't want to come across as a know it all, as I am far from it but I do feel I have some thoughts and opinons that I have learned along the way that I could share for someone who may be looking to "make the big move" one day. Will try to put up a few more threads that pop up in my mind like this in the next few days if anyone is interested.

[durito]

I'd say more. I've broken even over ~2M before.

[Iceman]

Let me also say I hate the word "pro gambler". Sounds so phony to me. Just had to put it in the title because is was short and got the point across.

Also the word gambler sucks also as I hate gambling on anything. Still haven't played a quarter in a slot machine since living here, not one. You probably won't find many people who gamble less then I do. I really don't like it. Don't think I have ever played once at an online casino either, not even for fun.

Not sure what I want it to be called but the word gambler is probably the last word I prefer and almost cringe when people use it when talking to me.

[Iceman]

I'd say more. I've broken even over ~2M before.

Great point. I should also add that volume is much more important and goes hand in hand with dollar amounts bet but this was my # 1 thing I have come across that I think most people don't understand when it comes to doing this for a living/income.

So maybe more like 4,000 bets and/or year at 2 million.

Volume is very underrated for players with smaller bankrolls and was going to be one of my next threads. Lots of people I come across don't understand this. You have to put in enough bets to get through the variance that you will go through in a typical year. Make only 500 bets through the year and there is a good chance you could have a losing year.

Llike you said you have broke even over 2 million bet, I have broke even over 2,000 bets before so basically the same type thing.

When you say 2 million bet, how many bets are you talking? I know that after a certain amount of plays I have always shown a profit and look to get to that number sooner rather then later (while not reaching for plays either).

I guess there are ways many could read this and say hold on but I am thinking about this more from the common man's point of view, maybe someone who would come here with 50k or so to do this.

[cobalt king]

wow I won't make 2 million in my lifetime so I guess I'll never be a pro!

[curious]

If by "professionally" you mean that this is a person's ONLY income, there are a couple of prerequisites they have to have or it isn't going to work (in my humble opinion).

Betting with money that you cannot afford to lose is a killer. Taking money out of your bank to pay your household bills is another killer because that causes you to bet with money that you can't afford to lose. It also depletes your bankroll.

So, the point is, that anyone thinking about doing this for their only source of income needs to have one year worth of household expenses in the bank, IN A SEPARATE ACCOUNT.

If you don't have that then you will run the risk of worrying about losses which will cause you to make mistakes.

[OmgUrMom]

cobalt are you serious?

you don't have to have 2 million dollars to wager 2 million over a year unless you plan on losing every single play. that would be quite the accomplishment.

[curious]

wow I won't make 2 million in my lifetime so I guess I'll never be a pro!

He isn't saying that you need a $2 million bankroll. He is saying that you have to bet $2 million in a year, which is a different thing. Personally, I don't think you should have more than 5% of your bank at play at any given point in time, so let's say you are talking 250 days a year worth of bets. $2 million / 250 = $8,000. $8,000 = 5% of $160,000. So, you need a bank of $160,000 and you need to have 5% of it working every day.

[rm18]

you don't need that much money to bet that much, you can have a 20k roll put it in play every day and bet 5-6 million a year

[sharpcat]

99% of the posters here in PT are incapable of gaining any type of long term edge over the books so it is probably not the best thing to do to fill their heads with more thoughts about gambling on sports for a living.

Even worse is telling these guys to increase the volume of their plays when all they bet is -EV plays, your gonna have PT posters jumping off of bridges in record numbers.

[durito]

He isn't saying that you need a $2 million bankroll. He is saying that you have to bet $2 million in a year, which is a different thing. Personally, I don't think you should have more than 5% of your bank at play at any given point in time, so let's say you are talking 250 days a year worth of bets. $2 million / 250 = $8,000. $8,000 = 5% of $160,000. So, you need a bank of $160,000 and you need to have 5% of it working every day.

Why not limit yourself to 7.6%? Or 3.2323% per day?

If you are finding good bets, there should be no limit to the amount bet per day. I wish I could get 100%+ of my roll down every day all year. 2% roi comes out real nice when it's compounded daily.

[curious]

durito,
Probably because I played blackjack for years and variance is so high in blackjack that you have to keep the % of bankroll very low or else risk of ruin is too high. In blackjack as bet size as a % of bank goes up risk of ruin goes up exponentially till it reaches 100%.

I know that variance isn't that extreme in sports betting but I just can't get over my aversion to risk of ruin. So, I keep my bet sizes as a % of bankroll low.

[curious]

Durito,
I am a firm believer that it is variance that kills you, not probability. I think that baseball behaves similarly to blackjack in terms of variance.

[curious]

you don't need that much money to bet that much, you can have a 20k roll put it in play every day and bet 5-6 million a year

If you put your entire bankroll in play every day your risk of ruin is 100%.

[Iceman]

99% of the posters here in PT are incapable of gaining any type of long term edge over the books so it is probably not the best thing to do to fill their heads with more thoughts about gambling on sports for a living.

Even worse is telling these guys to increase the volume of their plays when all they bet is -EV plays, your gonna have PT posters jumping off of bridges in record numbers.

I completely agree and if asked by 95% of the posters, I would say no don't do this at all.

So I guess this is more for the poster who is a semi seroius player nowadays, is a proven winner, etc..

[Iceman]

you don't need that much money to bet that much, you can have a 20k roll put it in play every day and bet 5-6 million a year

Exactly and that is why sportsbetting is the #1 form of investing around, IMO. Leverage is the key word. You can easily take 50k and use it to put 5 million too work over a year.

[Iceman]

Durito,
I am a firm believer that it is variance that kills you, not probability. I think that baseball behaves similarly to blackjack in terms of variance.

though I never use to believe this (and I do think 5% a day is really low), I am starting to become more believer in this of late.

Now like you said this is more for the player with a smaller bankroll. It's not so much that the variance will wipe you out, its more mentally the damage it can do to you. I have just went thru a similar type streak of late where I wiped out a few months profits in just 5 days. Now I did nothing wrong or different, just the way the games fell those 5 days (27-53 stretch). I really found myself scratching my head, where I may have felt better if this was srpead out a little longer but who knows. I try and tell myself all the time that the longterm is what you must think about and the short tem (espeically when watching a game) means absolutley nothing, though that can be hard when going through a losing stretch. When I mean longterm I mean a couple thousand plays.

I do try and play less then 1% of bankroll per play and actually feel a half of one percent should be the correct size one should play at. Meaning a 200 unit bankroll is most suitable for someone who must avoid going broke at all costs. This is why 2-3% per play, like you read all over, is horrible advice, IMO. Just way too risky for someone who has a bankroll that can't afford to lose.

[durito]

If I'm betting 100%+ of my bankroll in a day it's probably over 150+ wagers (or 300 sometimes).

[EmpireMaker]

wow I won't make 2 million in my lifetime so I guess I'll never be a pro!

He means a total bet value of 2 mil betting the same money over and over again but he is talking about 1% of bankroll max per bet and $500 bets so that would be a $500,000 bankroll he is talking about.

[blackbart]

I do try and play less then 1% of bankroll per play and actually feel a half of one percent should be the correct size one should play at. Meaning a 200 unit bankroll is most suitable for someone who must avoid going broke at all costs. This is why 2-3% per play, like you read all over, is horrible advice, IMO. Just way too risky for someone who has a bankroll that can't afford to lose."

couldnt agree more, as i think this is the most important thing for 95% of the posters here. Most dont understand about volume is your friend, as they have it ingrained into their head that less is better, but since they cant find an edge that is beyond their capacity.

[Iceman]

Nicky's posts are spot on. Remember again I am addressing this more to the ones who want to do this professional/for a living. I am by no means telling other posters to do this. I don't how people are doing betting wise but this advice is more for anyone who is thinking heavily about doing this at a serious level. In order to do this you must first have what you perceive to be an edge (which we can get into later) then if you do have an edge, then you must figure out how many bets you need to make to set everything up so you are betting 2 million a minimum a year all while staying within in the normal amounts of bet pct per play, etc... This can be trick but once again not as difficult as one thinks.

Which also leads me to another point. There is this huge misconseption that one have 250k to do this for a living. If you can get the volume (I shoot for about 800 plays a month during normal months, up to 1,200 during CBB season) then you don't need nearly the bankroll you think need. Having a 50k bankroll for starts and unbleievably betting just $300 a play (160 unit bank) times 30 plays a day (900 plays a month) is 9k a day bet and that is around 3.3 million bet for a year. So for those winning 2% ROI (which to me is the hardest of all the things mentioned to do) is 66k profit.

Another good point Nicky brought up is 54% win pct is awesome. Most think they can do it, all I can say is good luck doing it. Very few if any times over the longterm (2,00 plays and more) I have carried a 55% win pct or higher. The good news is 53.3% is more then good enough, that is almost a 2% ROI. My win pct is right around that for 2 years and some 11,000 bets made, proving you don't need to win at some incredlbe win rate either. People would be embarassed to admit to be a 53.3% player over 2,000 plays, I would be estatic. It's close to 40 units of profit and can be done in 2 months time for me during cbb season.

I am pretty much covering everything I have learned/discovered in this thread, oops.

[Iceman]

Glad to see you are still doing well, Iceman.

Do you still live in Vegas? I will be out there this weekend if you want to have a beer or something.

Was in San Diego for past 7 months or so but moved back to Vegas last week. Looking forward to this weekend and seeing many people so for sure stop by, where you going to be?

[Waz]

Keep up the good work Ice. If everyone on the forum thought like you there would be many more happy winners. I can't wait to get out to Vegas and start grinding.

[pedro803]

baby steps -- I still gotta get an edge first -- but an interesting thread nonetheless!

[clarkd32]

good stuff... keep it coming.

[bbenson011]

great read...really interesting!