Western Kentucky (-8½) vs Arkansas lr: O/U 128.5
Western Kentucky: (RPI #46, Sagarin #50)
25-6 overall
15-12 ATS
17-2 conference
12-15 O/U
SOS 151
Arkansas lr: (RPI #176, Sagarin #178)
20-10 overall
12-14 ATS
12-7 conference
10-16 O/U
SOS 310
The Sun Belt is a conference much like the ACC, two dominant schools, and then everyone else. Arkansas Little Rock came into this thing as the No. 3 seed, but they finished the season a full 5 games behind No. 2 seed Western Kentucky. Early on 63% of the betting public is grabbing WKU at the opening number.
The Hilltoppers have won 15 of their last 16 and covered 3 in a row. In their only meeting this year with Arkansas LR they won in convincing fashion, 71-47, despite finding themselves down two at the break. In that game WKU knocked down nine three pointers while the Trojans only managed 15 field goals for the entire game and finished at 29% shooting from the field.
Little Rock comes in on a bit of a roll themselves having won 5 in a row and getting the cover in each of those contests. Yesterday, in the opening round of the Sun Belt tournament, Ark LR took a 10 point lead into the break and held off the Florida Atlantic Owls in the second half to get themselves into round two. In that matchup the Trojans missed 18 FTs leaving themselves at a 15 point disadvantage from the line and they still found a way to win; if they miss 15 FTs again tonight, they'll get blown out.
The star on the court tonight figures to be 6-5 swing man Courtney Lee. Lee is 24th in the nation at 20.9 points per game and drops in over 49% of his shots from the field as well as just over 39% from behind the arc. In the Hilltoppers previous matchup with the Trojans Lee went for a relatively easy 18 on 8 of 12 shooting in 24 minutes. When their star doesn't have the ball, the Sun Belts No. 2 seed leaves their offense in the hands of another senior. Guard Tyrone Brazelton is 15th in the conference in scoring and is a 41% three point shooter on the season. Western Kentucky gets a lot of their work done from distance, the team has 4 regulars that are better than thirty-nine percent from deep.
The Trojans get the job done with defense and rebounding, they actually come into this contest ranked sixth nationally in defending the three. Ark LR holds their opponents to 61.7 point per game and they are 28th in the country in rebounding margin. The last time these two played, in Kentucky, Little Rock only out rebounded the Hilltoppers by 2 and found themselves down 24 as the clocks final second came off the clock. Tonight they won't be on the road, but they will need to rebound a bit better if they hope to keep pace. This team isn't likely to shoot as high as percentage from the field, so they'll need to create extra opportunities for themselves.
This game comes down to a team thats led by two seniors vs. a team thats led by two sophomores. Sun Belt player of the year, Courtney Lee, and second team all conference guard, Tyrone Brazelton, should be enough to keep the younger Trojans at distance.
Western Kentucky -8.5 -110 greek
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by BigOrangeTitans
