#3 UCLA -8.5 vs #7 Stanford: O/U 127
#3 UCLA -8.5 vs #7 Standford: O/U 127
UCLA: (RPI #7, Sagarin #2)
26-3 overall
17-9-2 ATS
14-2 home
14-2 conference
O/U 13-15
SOS 43
Standford: (RPI #17, Sagarin #11)
24-4 overall
14-14 ATS
8-3 away
13-3 conference
O/U 10-17
SOS 115
Its not often that you'll see the 7th ranked team in the nation as an 8 and a half point underdog, but thats the situation tonight. The Stanford Cardinal have won 11 of their last 12 and gone over the total in four of their last five. UCLA comes in just as hot having won 10 of 11 as they look to lock down a #1 seed with strong finish. These two teams met early in January and saw UCLA get a nine point win behind 56% shooting from behind the arc.
The Cardinal are a team that has some thinking they're a legit final 4 contender while others seem to think they're overrated at #7 in the AP. This isn't a team thats played an extremely tough schedule, but you can't help but respect a 13-3 record within the Pac-10. Stanford's strengths are their defense and rebounding. This team comes into our match-up as one of the top 15 teams in fg% defense and in the top 5 in rebounding margin. In the last meeting with the Bruins Brook Lopez was still getting back into the swing of things after having missed the teams first 9 games due to academic suspension. At this point, Brook Lopez is leading the team in blocks and rebounds all while managing 19.3 points per contest which ranks 4th in the Pac-10. A large part of the Stanford struggle with UCLA in their previous match-up was foul trouble. Each of the Lopez twins fouled out of that contest while Kevin Love found a way to get through the game without a single foul. Stanford will need the two big men in there for 30 plus tonight if they hope to pull off the upset and get back atop the conference standings.
The Bruins can lock up the Pac-10 regular season title for the third consecutive year with a win tonight. The the two prior seasons UCLA locked up the conference on the road; in each instance they did so in convincing fashion blowing out Stanford in 2006 and picking up a 9 point win over Washington State in '07. This year, The kids want to reward their fans by locking things up at home. 6-5 Josh Shipp expressed this sentiment, "It would be special to do it in front of our fans this year, The fans deserve that."
While Standford may not have been in peak form in early January, the same can be said for the Bruins. At the time of the last meeting Darren Collison was still battling a sprained knee, but thats not the case anymore as he's gone for 16 or more in his last three games. Collison provides this team with a tremendous spark, leads the team in steals, and is their most accurate long range shooter.
This game features two of the best rebounding teams in the nation, #2 (UCLA) and #3 (Stanford) nationally in rebounding margin and two of the best scoring defenses. Stanford does a lot of their work with shot blocking while the Bruins get things done with intense pressure all over the court. These two teams are fairly similar in most major categories, but UCLA has done their work vs a much better schedule than has the Cardinal.
We can't expect UCLA to knock down 56% of their three's on the Trees again, but they will be out to prove themselves at home where they are as tough as anyone. On their home floor the Bruins average pounding their opposition by just over 21 points a game. Stanford has done well on the road and they're coming off an emotional win over a tough Washington State team this past weekend. I think they'll come into this game believing they can win it, but they'll run into a buzz saw tonight at Pauley Pavilion.
My play:
UCLA -8.5
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Originally Posted by MadCapper
