Here's a link to a post I made a while back regarding the profitability of unadvantaged betting in the face of various rollovers.
More to the point of pags' post, however, the following chart relates various bonus/rollover pairs at -110 books to equivalent lines without bonus and rollover. (Bonus along the vertical axis and rollover aloing the horizontal.)
Example: Betting through a 20% bonus and 4x rollover is equivalent to betting through a deposit without any bonus or rollover at a -104 book.
Example: Betting through a 25% bonus and 4x rollover is equivalent to betting through a deposit without any bonus or rollover at a +105 book (a clearly hypothetical book which would allow you to bet either side at +105). This tells us that even an unadvantaged bettor has a positive expectation with such a bonus and rollover structure.
Example: Betting through a 15% bonus and 4x rollover is equivalent to betting through a deposit without any bonus or rollover at a -113 book. This tells us that an unadvantaged bettor would do better betting through his deposit at a -110 line set without any bonus or rollover than to take this bonus and rollover structure. (Of course if the bettor already planned to bet 4x his deposit anyway without a withdrawal, then he'd certainly be advised to take the bonus as the rollover requirement wouldn't actually be a constraint).
(Remember that this all assumes an unadvantaged bettor at a -110 line set.)
For rollovers of 0x - 10x:
Code:
| 0x | 1x | 2x | 3x | 4x | 5x | 6x | 7x | 8x | 9x | 10x
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0% | XXX | -110 | -120 | -130 | -140 | -150 | -160 | -170 | -180 | -190 | -200
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5% | 110 | 100 | -110 | -121 | -131 | -142 | -152 | -163 | -173 | -184 | -194
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10% | 120 | 110 | 100 | -111 | -122 | -133 | -144 | -155 | -166 | -177 | -188
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15% | 130 | 120 | 109 | -102 | -113 | -125 | -136 | -148 | -159 | -171 | -182
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20% | 140 | 129 | 118 | 107 | -104 | -116 | -128 | -140 | -152 | -164 | -176
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25% | 150 | 139 | 127 | 116 | 105 | -108 | -120 | -133 | -145 | -158 | -170
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30% | 160 | 148 | 136 | 125 | 113 | 101 | -112 | -125 | -138 | -151 | -164
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35% | 170 | 158 | 145 | 133 | 121 | 109 | -104 | -118 | -131 | -145 | -158
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40% | 180 | 167 | 155 | 142 | 129 | 116 | 104 | -110 | -124 | -138 | -152
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45% | 190 | 177 | 164 | 150 | 137 | 124 | 111 | -103 | -117 | -132 | -146
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50% | 200 | 186 | 173 | 159 | 145 | 132 | 118 | 105 | -110 | -125 | -140
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55% | 210 | 196 | 182 | 168 | 154 | 140 | 125 | 111 | -103 | -119 | -134
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60% | 220 | 205 | 191 | 176 | 162 | 147 | 133 | 118 | 104 | -112 | -128
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65% | 230 | 215 | 200 | 185 | 170 | 155 | 140 | 125 | 110 | -106 | -122
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70% | 240 | 225 | 209 | 194 | 178 | 163 | 147 | 132 | 116 | 101 | -116
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75% | 250 | 234 | 218 | 202 | 186 | 170 | 155 | 139 | 123 | 107 | -110
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80% | 260 | 244 | 227 | 211 | 195 | 178 | 162 | 145 | 129 | 113 | -104
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85% | 270 | 253 | 236 | 220 | 203 | 186 | 169 | 152 | 135 | 119 | 102
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90% | 280 | 263 | 245 | 228 | 211 | 194 | 176 | 159 | 142 | 125 | 107
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95% | 290 | 272 | 255 | 237 | 219 | 201 | 184 | 166 | 148 | 130 | 113
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100% | 300 | 282 | 264 | 245 | 227 | 209 | 191 | 173 | 155 | 136 | 118
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For rollovers of 11x - 20x:
Code:
| 11x | 12x | 13x | 14x | 15x | 16x | 17x | 18x | 19x | 20x
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0% | -210 | -220 | -230 | -240 | -250 | -260 | -270 | -280 | -290 | -300
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5% | -205 | -215 | -226 | -236 | -247 | -257 | -268 | -278 | -289 | -299
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10% | -199 | -210 | -221 | -232 | -243 | -254 | -265 | -276 | -287 | -298
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15% | -194 | -205 | -217 | -228 | -240 | -251 | -263 | -274 | -286 | -297
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20% | -188 | -200 | -212 | -224 | -236 | -248 | -260 | -272 | -284 | -296
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25% | -183 | -195 | -208 | -220 | -233 | -245 | -258 | -270 | -283 | -295
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30% | -177 | -190 | -203 | -216 | -229 | -242 | -255 | -268 | -281 | -294
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35% | -172 | -185 | -199 | -212 | -226 | -239 | -253 | -266 | -280 | -293
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40% | -166 | -180 | -194 | -208 | -222 | -236 | -250 | -264 | -278 | -292
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45% | -161 | -175 | -190 | -204 | -219 | -233 | -248 | -262 | -277 | -291
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50% | -155 | -170 | -185 | -200 | -215 | -230 | -245 | -260 | -275 | -290
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55% | -150 | -165 | -181 | -196 | -212 | -227 | -243 | -258 | -274 | -289
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60% | -144 | -160 | -176 | -192 | -208 | -224 | -240 | -256 | -272 | -288
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65% | -139 | -155 | -172 | -188 | -205 | -221 | -238 | -254 | -271 | -287
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70% | -133 | -150 | -167 | -184 | -201 | -218 | -235 | -252 | -269 | -286
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75% | -128 | -145 | -163 | -180 | -198 | -215 | -233 | -250 | -268 | -285
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80% | -122 | -140 | -158 | -176 | -194 | -212 | -230 | -248 | -266 | -284
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85% | -117 | -135 | -154 | -172 | -191 | -209 | -228 | -246 | -265 | -283
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90% | -111 | -130 | -149 | -168 | -187 | -206 | -225 | -244 | -263 | -282
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95% | -106 | -125 | -145 | -164 | -184 | -203 | -223 | -242 | -262 | -281
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100% | 100 | -120 | -140 | -160 | -180 | -200 | -220 | -240 | -260 | -280
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