#15 Purdue +1.5 @ OSU: 0/u 125.5
#15 Purdue +2.5 @ OSU: 0/u 125.5 ESPN
Purdue (RPI #29, Sagarin #26)
23-6
16-10 ats
5-4 away
14-2 conference
0/u 13-13
SOS: 116
OSU (RPI #55, Sagarin #41)
17-12
12-13 ats
12-3 home
8-8 conference
0/u 8-17
SOS: 30
The buckeyes need a win here if they want any chance at the Big Dance. Ohio State comes in with an RPI outside of the top 50, but a win tonight and a run in the conference tournament could sneak them into an 11 seed on selection day. Wagerline is showing just over 55% of the public on Purdue who comes in as the dog, despite the higher ranking in each poll.
The Boilermakers have been a covering machine of late having cashed for their backers in 13 of their last 15. The problem here is that this is a team that’s never won at Value City Arena (0-7), and they simply don't cover vs. the Buckeyes, 3-11 in the last 14 match ups. Head Coach, Matt Painter, was quick to dismiss their lack of success at OSU, "Our guys are excited about this opportunity and just excited about playing at Ohio State, I know we haven't had much success there, but we haven't taken this team into Ohio State."
Purdue wins by dictating tempo, they don't allow many points despite the fact that they don't rank in the top 120 in field goal percentage defense. They've only lost one game since January 12th, at Indiana, and that game was lost at the line. Purdue only hit on 52% of their attempts while they allowed the Hoosiers to reach the stripe 34 times. If Purdue can get to the line more than OSU, history tells us that they'll win the game; they're 15-0 in games where they get to the line more often than their opponent.
The Buckeyes come in as a team that can't have much confidence, but does have something to play for. Not only are they playing for the outside shot at a birth to the big dance, but they're still in the running for the last first round bye in the big-10 tourney. OSU will throw some press at Purdue and some 2-3 zone. Ohio State leads the big-10 in fg% defense and 3 point percentage defense so this should prove to be a tough test for the road team. Purdue does have 3 guys who are over 40% from 3 on the season, but they're not considered a great three point shooting side.
Following losses in five of their last six, Coach Thad Matta's only focus is getting a win tonight. Matt's team has been on the road for four of their last 5 and they'll take great comfort in being back home, on ESPN, with the chance to make a bit of a statement vs. a top 15 team. What the team needs is to get back on track from behind the arc. This group has shot under 30% from three point land in each of their last four, they'll have to do better to get a win tonight. At home OSU hits just over 36% from distance while they hold the visitors under 30%.
This should be a close game and it's certainly big for both schools. Purdue takes good care of the ball, but how long can you continue to win when you shoot a lower percentage from the field than you allow. OSU gets a much needed win tonight.
OSU -1.5
-110
Bookmaker
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Originally Posted by MadCapper
