[Pistol Pete]

Wanting to know percentage of baseball games per season that were won by 2 runs or more. I would like to look at a 5yr trend. I could do the work and find out but it seems so time consuming. Any mad baseball cappers got this info? thanks in advance

[JBC77]

Seems like this question gets asked at least once a year. Thinking about playing runlines Pete?

I forgot where to locate that info? Someone will chime in.

[imgv94]

Don't know exactly. Like to take a shot at guessing....

76%

[JBC77]

You can try this out, haven't messed around with it in a while. Great free stat site...www.baseball-reference.com, left hand column, try team game results. If you play around you might be able to dig it up.

[turnip]

I also don't know exactly, but I think imgv94 is right, I remember reading somewhere that it was between 70-80%.

If you don't mind doing a little work:

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp has a tab for 1-run games, if you add up all the 1-run wins you will have the number of 1-run games played that year.

[imgv94]

Yeah I remember someone saying some number in between 22-29% that games are determined by one run..

I know newb411breaker19 knows this. I'll email him right now

[Data]

about 72.5%

[2Pac]

So if it really is true that only 25% of games (roughly) are decided by 1 run, what is the use of playing underdog runlies, and moneyline favorites?

Seems like dog moneylines and favorite runlines would be the thing to do

[imgv94]

It would be best to differentiate between Home games won by more than 1 run and away games won by more than 1 run.

76.4% of road wins are by more than one run, while 68.3% of home games are won by more than 1 run. This is expected of course because the road team will always bat in the top of the ninth, giving them more chances to win by a greater margin.

I got these numbers from Michael Murray's "betting baseball 2006" a book I highly recommend.

knew my boy would come through.

[B1GER1C828]

in 1 of my posts, im tryign 2 figure out wat % of away favorites/home favorites won 2 help for a system that is going to play on dog ml and runlines i cant find these numbers tho! so if u no wat % of away fav/home fav's won i'd appreciate it guys!

[Ganchrow]

Wanting to know percentage of baseball games per season that were won by 2 runs or more. I would like to look at a 5yr trend. I could do the work and find out but it seems so time consuming. Any mad baseball cappers got this info? thanks in advance

FWIW, from the 1999-2007 (regular and post) seasons (22,125 games total):

Away team won by exactly 1 run 10.71% of the time.
Away team won by 2 or more runs 35.50% of the time.
Home team won by exactly 1 run 16.92% of the time.
Home team won by 2 or more runs 36.86% of the time.

[diogee]

FWIW, from the 1999-2007 (regular and post) seasons (22,125 games total):

Away team won by exactly 1 run 10.71% of the time.
Away team won by 2 or more runs 35.50% of the time.
Home team won by exactly 1 run 16.92% of the time.
Home team won by 2 or more runs 36.86% of the time.

Great information as usual.