[Pistol Pete]

Wanting to know percentage of baseball games per season that were won by 2 runs or more. I would like to look at a 5yr trend. I could do the work and find out but it seems so time consuming. Any mad baseball cappers got this info? thanks in advance

[JBC77]

Seems like this question gets asked at least once a year. Thinking about playing runlines Pete?

I forgot where to locate that info? Someone will chime in.

[imgv94]

Don't know exactly. Like to take a shot at guessing....

76%

[JBC77]

You can try this out, haven't messed around with it in a while. Great free stat site...www.baseball-reference.com, left hand column, try team game results. If you play around you might be able to dig it up.

[turnip]

I also don't know exactly, but I think imgv94 is right, I remember reading somewhere that it was between 70-80%.

If you don't mind doing a little work:

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp has a tab for 1-run games, if you add up all the 1-run wins you will have the number of 1-run games played that year.

[imgv94]

Yeah I remember someone saying some number in between 22-29% that games are determined by one run..

I know newb411breaker19 knows this. I'll email him right now

[Data]

about 72.5%

[2Pac]

So if it really is true that only 25% of games (roughly) are decided by 1 run, what is the use of playing underdog runlies, and moneyline favorites?

Seems like dog moneylines and favorite runlines would be the thing to do

[newb411breaker19]

Originally Posted by Pistol Pete

Wanting to know percentage of baseball games per season that were won by 2 runs or more. I would like to look at a 5yr trend. I could do the work and find out but it seems so time consuming. Any mad baseball cappers got this info? thanks in advance

It would be best to differentiate between Home games won by more than 1 run and away games won by more than 1 run.

76.4% of road wins are by more than one run, while 68.3% of home games are won by more than 1 run. This is expected of course because the road team will always bat in the top of the ninth, giving them more chances to win by a greater margin.

I got these numbers from Michael Murray's "betting baseball 2006" a book I highly recommend.

[imgv94]

Originally Posted by newb411breaker19

It would be best to differentiate between Home games won by more than 1 run and away games won by more than 1 run.

76.4% of road wins are by more than one run, while 68.3% of home games are won by more than 1 run. This is expected of course because the road team will always bat in the top of the ninth, giving them more chances to win by a greater margin.

I got these numbers from Michael Murray's "betting baseball 2006" a book I highly recommend.

knew my boy would come through.

[newb411breaker19]

Originally Posted by imgv94

knew my boy would come through.

thanks man.. i'm still getting ready for baseball

[B1GER1C828]

in 1 of my posts, im tryign 2 figure out wat % of away favorites/home favorites won 2 help for a system that is going to play on dog ml and runlines i cant find these numbers tho! so if u no wat % of away fav/home fav's won i'd appreciate it guys!

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by Pistol Pete

Wanting to know percentage of baseball games per season that were won by 2 runs or more. I would like to look at a 5yr trend. I could do the work and find out but it seems so time consuming. Any mad baseball cappers got this info? thanks in advance

FWIW, from the 1999-2007 (regular and post) seasons (22,125 games total):

Away team won by exactly 1 run 10.71% of the time.
Away team won by 2 or more runs 35.50% of the time.
Home team won by exactly 1 run 16.92% of the time.
Home team won by 2 or more runs 36.86% of the time.

[diogee]

Originally Posted by Ganchrow

FWIW, from the 1999-2007 (regular and post) seasons (22,125 games total):

Away team won by exactly 1 run 10.71% of the time.
Away team won by 2 or more runs 35.50% of the time.
Home team won by exactly 1 run 16.92% of the time.
Home team won by 2 or more runs 36.86% of the time.

Great information as usual.