The attached spreadsheet may be used to compare different season totals between books.
Season Totals Worksheet.xls
For example:
Baltimore
Let's say that your handicapping tells you that you expect Baltimore on average to win 73 games next season. Pinnacle and Greek are offering the following:
WSEX
o73½ -125
u73½ -105
Greek
o70½ -240
u70½ +200
Which is better?
Enter Expected Season Wins (73), First Total (73.5), First Over Line (-125), First Under Line (-105), Second Total (70.5), Second Over Line (-240), and Second Under Line (+200) into the spreadsheet.
You see that the WSEX line implies a 15.8% expected loss on the over and a 4.0% expected win on the under.
You see that the Greek line implies a 7.5% expected loss on the over and a 4.2% expected win on the under.
Therefore, the Greek under would yield slightly greater expected profit than the WSEX under, and the Greek over would yield considerably lower expected loss than the WSEX over. This makes sense when we consider that in this particular market WSEX is charging 6.35% vig, market while The Greek is only charging 3.77%.
<sup>*</sup>
Lastly the equivalent over and under lines at the bottom of the spreadsheet show what the lines would need to be at the second book to match the expected profit or loss at the first book. In this case we see that in terms of expected profit, o70½ -345.4 is equivalent to o73½ -125 and u70½ +199.3 is equivalent to u73½ -105.
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* -105/-125 => overround of 105/(100+105) + 125/(100+125) ≈ 1.067751; so vig = 1 - 1/1.067751 ≈ 6.35%.
* +200/-240 => overround of 100/(100+200) + 240/(100+240) ≈ 1.039216; so vig = 1 - 1/1.039216 ≈ 3.77%.
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