[mofome]

#21 Pitt Vs WVU: 7:00pm ESPN


Pittsburgh: (RPI #23, Sagarin #21)
17-5
11-6 ats
12-2 home
0/u 7-10
SoS 46

WVU: (RPI 49#, Sagarin #22)
16-6
8-8 ats
5-2 away
0/u 5-11
SoS 52



On Thursday night the Petersen Events Center will play Host to a Big-East showdown between the Pitt Panthers and the West Virginia Mountaineers. This game opened up with Pitt as a 2.5 point favorite and quickly moved to 3 with over 75% of the public on the Panthers according to wagerline. On the season the Mountaineers are just 1 and 3 vs the top 25 and have been blown out in three straight vs Jamie Dixon's Panthers.

Pittsburgh has won 5 of its last and covered in 6 of their last nine. This team started the season with 11 wins capped off by an emotional overtime defeat of the Duke Blue Devils. Since then Pitt has been unpredictable getting blown out by Dayton, losing at cinci, and being embarrassed vs Rutgers.

In analyzing Pitts 5 losses you see that the team simply didn't force many turnovers. In those losses the panthers forced, 5, 3, 3, 5, and 7 steals respectively. Thats simply not creating enough easy buckets to beat the tougher teams. In these losses you also notice that the panthers got to line fewer times than their opposition in each game, far fewer times in four of those whippings.

On the other end of the spectrum, we've watched this Panther team beat the likes to Duke, and Georgetown, two top 7 teams according to the RPI. In each of those wins Pitt was able to hold their opponent to under 22% from behind the arc and that was what enabled them to hold off two more talented teams. West Virginia won't be the more talented team tonight, but coach Dixon is sure to have his team prepared to defend the three ball again tonight.

The Mountaineers were another team that started the season off on fire. Bob Huggins led his team to wins in 10 of their first 11 with the lone loss coming to the hands of the Tennessee Volunteers by just 2 points. Since that point the men from West Virginia have lost 5 of their last 11, including 2 losses in their last 3 outings. West Virginia has been favored in seven straight and failed to cover in four of those games. Tonight they come in as the dog, a position they haven't been in since January 10th at Louisville, a game they were never really in.
When WVU struggles its because they aren't knocking down the three and they're getting beat up on the glass. West Virginia has lost 5 game since December 28th and in 4 of those games they didn't manage to hit over 25% from 3 point land. Simply put, if Huggins hopes to win his 2nd consecutive road game, his team is going to have to perform much better from the outside. That, however, will not be easy, Pitt ranks as one of the nations better teams defending the three.

This rivalry is one of the oldest in the country and there won't be many better opportunities for WVU to knock off the panthers at the PEC. Since losing starting SF Mike Cook and emotional leader Levance Fields, the Panthers are just 6-4 SU and have alternated wins and losses over their last six. Brooklyn native, Fields, led this squad with his toughness on both sides of the court as well as his ability to get the ball in the hands of his teammates (5.4 assists per game). In their absence 6-6 Sam Young has taken his game to an all-conference level, now averaging 18.1 ppg (4th in the big-East) and 6.8 boards. Young, along with 6-7 DeJuan Blair could give the road team more than they can handle inside. Blair comes into this game second in the league in total rebounds while the visitors dont boast a single player in the top 25.

The biggest problem WVU will present to the Panthers is their balance on offense. The Neers don't have depth, but they have balance, bringing in 4 players who average at least 12 points per game; three of which are hitting over 38% from 3 point range on the season. 6-8 forward Joe Alexander isn't a push over inside, but he doesn't posses the frame to bang with Blair for 40 minutes. The rebounding of Alexander and Butler will be key for the teams chances of pulling off the upset on ESPN.

Both of these teams are well coached defensively and defend the perimeter well. Without fields Pitt doesn't get into their offense quite as smoothly and they don't get the same energy from their back court as a whole. A Pittsburgh loss would mark the first time in nearly two years that they've fallen in consecutive Big-East games. I think the Panthers will come out fired up early and take it to WVU a bit before things settle. Pitt has been a strong first half team in their last 5, in the big east overall, and for the season overall. WVU, on the other hand, tends to be more of a second half team. I like The panthers to cover the first half and for this game to under 134.5.

line shopping:
2.5 heavy juice at matchbook on pitt
3.5s (-110) can be found at 5dimes and betonline

[mofome]

3.5 at wsex now. you can still get 3s at bookmaker and a couple others.

[brock]

Nice write up mo Ill have to consider this one have not look at the board yet

[mofome]

Originally Posted by brock

Nice write up mo Ill have to consider this one have not look at the board yet

thanks brock, took some time and i came up with these two plays.

bol to you today, glad someone reads this stuff.

[WVU]

My Mountaineers will most likely get owned by Pitt. The fans will be ruthless though as the backyard brawl in Morgantown is still very fresh on their minds.

I am taking the Pathers as much as it kills me.

[Immortality]

Nice write-up Mo


I was going to tail you on this one but the under is down to 131 so I am just going pass. Good luck

[zerocage]

Pass Pass Good luck

[pavyracer]

Is Mofome's real name Joe Vandercook or is it the other way around?

[zerocage]

Originally Posted by pavyracer

Is Mofome's real name Joe Vandercook or is it the other way around?

We can't reveal such information!

[Louisvillekid1]

Nice Write up

[mofome]

the line has moved to 131, that happened quickly. first half line -1.5 still a play.


thanks Immortality, zero and LK

[MoneySportsGuy]

Great writeup mofo you got me to get on this as well

I got Pitt -3, so lets get a 5 point win for fun! go Pitt go!

[SchlepRock]

Writeup was great but my eyes were on her ass.

[Louisvillekid1]

Mo your on the front page now?

[mofome]

Originally Posted by SchlepRock

Writeup was great but my eyes were on her ass.

[5 star bomb]

Like Pitt as well tonight.... 1H -1.5 looks good as well. I will tail this play.. GL

[mofome]

Originally Posted by 5 star bomb

Like Pitt as well tonight.... 1H -1.5 looks good as well. I will tail this play.. GL

thanks 5 star, hopefully i dont let you down.

[mofome]

at the gym i got an update that pitt was up, i come back and the under is decent and the half is a loss. great.

[5 star bomb]

Blair missed multiple easy shots in the paint even a couple layups... sweet

[Timetopay]

didnt even see your play today. must have dropped on first page. garbage first half.

[mofome]

Originally Posted by Timetopay

didnt even see your play today. must have dropped on first page. garbage first half.

its been on this page, but i'll have to hope for a 1-1 here. it seems pitt should have won the half by a couple, but they couldnt finish around the rim.

[INVEGA MAN]

Looking good with a minute to go

[Quebb Diesel]

WOW...WVU is hating their lives when the game comes down to the wire!

[mofome]

under comes in

[Quebb Diesel]

good call man

[mofome]

Originally Posted by Quebb Diesel

good call man

pitt blew the first, thats dreadful.

[Quebb Diesel]

ehh...you hit that under though...one of my parlays got knocked out on pitt -3...i love missing that first game

[Louisvillekid1]

It was a great finish thats for sure.

[mofome]

glad we avoided OT

[buztah]