[ChampDog]

It cost me three dimes But it was worth seeing the Books get hit Big Time....

Congrats to all the Giants Backers

[isetcap]

You might figure it out eventually, but suffice to say that you are deceived if you think the books got hit in this game.

[BuddyBear]

I am glad you can lose $3000 and take solace and rationalize in the fact that books lost (maybe, maybe not).

FYI: I am sure if it was the other way around, the books could give a **** about you....

[Wrigley]

Lets hope the employees who work for casinos checks dont bounce this week

[BigBollocks]

Even if they did lose some, they'll eventually get it back and then some from the majority of their clients. It'll be interesting to hear the returns from tonight, as well as ML and prop dollars lost. Another thing to factor might be all the folks on Pats futures that went bust-O tonight. It'll be interesting to hear the reports shortly...

[20Four7]

If wagerline is to be believed I don't think the books faired bad at all:

Consensus on ATS
Visitor Wagers Line Home Wagers Line
N.Y. Giants 202 +13 New England 108 -13
N.Y. Giants 1882 +12.5 New England 1398 -12.5
N.Y. Giants 338 +12 New England 218 -12
Consensus N.Y. Giants 2422 New England 1724



Consensus on Over/Under
Over Wagers Total Under Wagers
1375 53.5 992
238 54 177
451 54.5 360
Consensus 2064 1529

[brock]

hard to feel sorry for them

[ChampDog]

Date Teams Sportsbook.com Betting Trends Status Score Stats

2008-02-03 NEW YORK GIANTS +12.5 63% +360 85%
18:18 EST

refer to ShamsWoof for any sportsbook.com info.

If wagerline is to be believed I don't think the books faired bad at all:

[isetcap]

You should only feel sorry for them if you are worried about how they will manage to spend the huge windfall they made on this game.

[zerocage]

How did they get hurt???

[isetcap]

As soon as you see numbers for the "take" as opposed to the "ticket tally" you'll stop worrying so much about the poor books.

[ChampDog]

Just checking to see who is PAYING attention... Oh JJgold are you a paid basher ?????

Sunday, February 4, 2007
The NFL SuperBowl by Ecobika free NFL picks
The NFL SuperBowl by Ecobika free NFL picks by ecobika

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Super Bowl Propositions - The Achilles' Heel of Square Books - The Inside Wagering Line from Pinnacle Sports Book by edited by Ecobika Sport betting

Super Bowl Propositions - The Achilles' Heel of Square Books

According to USA Today, half of all Americans will wager on the Super Bowl, as a result, 90% of bets on the game are made by novice gamblers. Aware of the opportunity to attract new customers, sportsbooks understandably focus an enormous amount of energy on the biggest game on the sports schedule. The most successful approach to excite these armchair bettors is to offer propositions that promise potentially big returns for a very modest outlay, and those that focus on seemingly random or humorous events.

The problem that books face with this approach is that often just one odds maker is pricing the lines based on variables that he has far less reliable data on than he is used to. These propositions can be the easiest for an educated player to beat and sportsbooks routinely lose money on them. Propositions are a loss-leader for the betting world to tempt new bettors who will end up losing money on one of the more lucrative areas for the bookie. To protect themselves in this unusually vulnerable situation, sportsbooks build in inordinately large margins - typically using a 30 or 40-cent line with low wagering limits - yet will often consider a break-even result a success.

When you wager on a proposition, it's typically your opinion versus one odds maker. If you know more than that one odds maker, you are going to get the best of it. For Super Bowl XLI, Pinnacle Sportsbook is offering over 200 props with many priced to world beating 15-cent margins, a significant savings versus the 30 to 40-cent lines at other online books.

With this many wagering options and the public betting like mad, it's not uncommon to see prop lines move on public money alone. At Pinnacle Sportsbetting, there are several professional prop players that will take a contrarian view on our props and bet almost any one that moves more than 20 cents (betting towards the original price). Therefore, the 'Pinnacle Lean' is useful for measuring market prices on props as well as on sides and totals. For example, PinnacleSports.com is offering the following prop: 'Who will score the first TD?' at Colts -145/Bears +130. This suggests that the no-vig price based on our 15-cent line is -137.5/+137.5. Therefore, you can 'play the lean' if you find another book with the Yes at -136.5, or the No at +138.5.

The biggest mistake that players and odds makers make when evaluating props is in not understanding the difference between the median and the mean (average). Most players would assume that the average (total/frequency) is an accurate measure, but the correct way to analyze many of these types of props is to use the median. Looking at a list of theoretical score lengths in ascending order, the median is the middle number:
1
1
17
20 (median)
39
47
59
If you assumed before Sunday's game that these seven scores would occur, and assessed the prop 'Will the first score be more than 24.5 yards?' you'd price the 'No' knowing the under would hit four out of seven times, making the no-vig price on the 'No' -133 or (-4/3*100). Whereas if you took the average it would give you another answer (26.3), and lead you to the very different and misleading conclusion that the over is more likely.

Although this concept is simple and rather obvious, it will pay dividends to anyone who is prepared to spend time calculating the median. The median is useful on all types of props - from 'length of first rush' to the 'longest/shortest' props (where you use the median result from games for the whole season). In fact, there are two straightforward ways to accurately price these types of props.

First, you'll want to use as much data as possible. Since the Colts have played 19 games and Chicago has played 18 games, this gives you a much better estimate of a fair mid-point. Secondly, you should also consider adjusting your data for the opponent, perhaps ignoring some data for games that aren't similar to their Super Bowl opponent. Sharp bettors might only use data where both teams were playing under similar spread scenarios (though this might produce a small sample for the Bears).

What are players betting at Pinnacle Sports Book?

Chicago +6.5 +103 vs. Indianapolis. It appears like their opening line of Indianapolis -6.5 is solid, as we haven't had to move off the number just yet. In the nearly two weeks since the Conference Championships, the Super Bowl line has only moved four cents from -115 to -111. Public opinion of the AFC being the stronger conference has been evident throughout, while the larger volume bets have come in on the Bears. While the line is standing at 6.5 (-111), it could easily move to the 7 on Sunday when we expect a flurry of bets before kickoff.

Chicago vs. Indianapolis Under 48 points -115 The Super Bowl total opened at 48.5 with two-way betting to start although the heavier volume came in on the under pushing the line down a few cents. This was followed by many small wagers on the over, mixed in with plays on the under. The line was pushed down to 48 after several large plays on the under from our sharper players. Although we've received three times as many plays on the over, the larger volume on the under has the line standing at -115 on the under, which could move another half point by kickoff on Sunday to 47.5.

Chicago +3.5 -102 vs. Indianapolis 1st Half. Indianapolis opened as 4-point favorites in the first half at -111. All of the early betting for the Super Bowl first half line was on Chicago, dropping the line to 3.5 before we saw any buyback on the Colts. The line has since settled at 3.5 where we are seeing more balanced action.

Chicago vs. Indianapolis 1st Half Under 24.5 -132 We opened the first half total at 24.5 with the under a -125 favorite. Early betting clearly favored the over with some mixed buyback on the under. The line has been lowered seven cents due to the game total being lowered even though we've received five times more plays on the first half over.

Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing and online casino gaming. With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs. The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle Sportsbook Betting and get wagering today!

[Poker_Beast]

I doubt if they will lose any sleep over it.

[bigboydan]

You should only feel sorry for them if you are worried about how they will manage to spend the huge windfall they made on this game.

I concur Cap.

The last hours of wagering on the SuperBowl was most likely all Patriots money, and no online consensus will acknowledge that factor that info.

[isetcap]

I've yet to hear a compelling argument that would make me think that any book would allow themselves to be overexposed on a 12.5 point NFL underdog. That is not the way that books make money. Any decent book is rolling in cash right now.

[betbetter]

You might figure it out eventually, but suffice to say that you are deceived if you think the books got hit in this game.

Really. Why?

[ChampDog]

An JJ is PAID to drive lines... please !!!! this may be new to some, but there are actual Pros that get paid to sell bread at a loss only to make it up on items that many have no Clue about....

In marketing, a loss leader (also called a key value item in the United Kingdom) is a type of pricing strategy where an item is sold below cost in an effort to stimulate other, profitable sales. It is a kind of sales promotion.

I've yet to hear a compelling argument that would make me think that any book would allow themselves to be overexposed on a 12.5 point NFL underdog. That is not the way that books make money. Any decent book is rolling in cash right now.

[ChampDog]

waiting !!!!!

[isetcap]

Really. Why?

The rationale for stating that the books lost in this contest is based on the ticket count. It doesn't account for futures holdings, in-game action, and size of tickets. While NY has a much larger population and fan base than NE, one really shouldn't be concerned with the 1000 $10 bets that came in from NY homers and the 100 $10 bets that came in for NE homers. What should receive closer evaluation are the bets of significance placed by individuals who actually have money. The only way to evaluate that is to look at the size of the tickets as opposed to the number.

[ChampDog]

isetcap, your missing the point.... at times we are so focused on the attack and defense that we loose sight of the goal... my goal is to WAKE people up and understand that chasing the rabbit (in dog racing terms) is nothing more than the Lemming (national geographic) going over the cliff....

[betbetter]

The rationale for stating that the books lost in this contest is based on the ticket count. It doesn't account for futures holdings, in-game action, and size of tickets. While NY has a much larger population and fan base than NE, one really shouldn't be concerned with the 1000 $10 bets that came in from NY homers and the 100 $10 bets that came in for NE homers. What should receive closer evaluation are the bets of significance placed by individuals who actually have money. The only way to evaluate that is to look at the size of the tickets as opposed to the number.

I'd agree to disagree then. That's a very generalizing statement you make. A heavily bet, in most shops 2 to 1 or better, +400 or better, dog came in. On the most bet NFL game of the year. Simply not enough action on anything else to offset that. Added, NYG were at an attractive price to begin the year futures wise and reamined there for the most part. They were heavily bet. If a book was'nt laying off somewhere today, they got hit. Not a crushing blow, but it hurt.

[BuddyBear]

Seriously, what does it matter if they won or lost? Why are we even dwelling on this topic. They may lose, big deal...they'll make it up in the next few weeks.

Consider how many different bets (sides, totals, halftime lines, props, etc...). Books may not have cleaned house like they have in previous years, but surely they are not going broke.

[isetcap]

I'd agree to disagree then. That's a very generalizing statement you make. A heavily bet, in most shops 2 to 1 or better, +400 or better, dog came in. On the most bet NFL game of the year. Simply not enough action on anything else to offset that. Added, NYG were at an attractive price to begin the year futures wise and reamined there for the most part. They were heavily bet. If a book was'nt laying off somewhere today, they got hit. Not a crushing blow, but it hurt.

Yes I agree we definitely disagree. If 21-34 had come today, then I'd listen to an argument stating that books didn't make money, but it would have to be a very good argument. On January 21, Pinnacle had NE-12.5(+104). Today, they started the day with NE-12.5(+102). That price got beat down during the course of the heaviest betting period to (-107), then a late run came in on NYG bringing the price back to (+102). Finally, betting closed with a small push to NE-12.5(-101). It is hard to contemplate a scenario where it would seem the action could be much more balanced than that.

As for the ML, +435 was the closing number at Pinnacle and that was essentially the running average since January 21.

Now unless Pinnacle's models are bad and they started having a bias toward favorites, these numbers would inherently suggest they received spectacularly balanced action and sucked the juice out of a huge chunk of betting volume.

Or you can continue to convince me that they were willing to gamble on a 12.5 point favorite that hadn't covered in 5 weeks, even though that would go against the most basic bookmaking strategies ever put in place.

Evaluate the pricing history for both the spread and ml at any of the major books and you will have all the evidence you need. This betting for this game was so textbook that it was a bookmaker's dream. I imagine Pinnacle made about 1.25% on all their pre-game volume and Greek probably made about 2%. Everybody else should have been somewhere in between unless they were gambling.

[isetcap]

How do you check the pricing history I am curious about that kinda stuff is there some website that like tracks it all down?

I'm sorry MSG, that information is only available to the insidest of insiders. I wish I could publish it for all to see...take a peek.

Pinnacle

# 01/21/2008 10:56AM: +12.5 -112 / -12.5 +104
# 01/21/2008 11:02AM: +12.5 -110 / -12.5 +102
# 01/21/2008 11:35AM: +12.5 -106 / -12.5 -102
# 01/21/2008 11:50AM: +12.5 -110 / -12.5 +102
# 01/21/2008 4:42PM: +12.5 -112 / -12.5 +104
# 01/22/2008 9:13AM: +12 -101 / -12 -107
# 01/22/2008 9:37AM: +12 -104 / -12 -104
# 01/22/2008 10:18AM: +12 -102 / -12 -106
# 01/23/2008 1:42PM: +12 Even / -12 -108
# 01/23/2008 1:44PM: +12 +102 / -12 -110
# 01/23/2008 1:47PM: +12 Even / -12 -108
# 01/23/2008 6:07PM: +12.5 -105 / -12.5 -103
# 01/23/2008 11:17PM: +12.5 -106 / -12.5 -102
# 01/24/2008 9:48PM: +12.5 -107 / -12.5 -101
# 01/25/2008 2:58PM: +12.5 -108 / -12.5 EVEN
# 01/26/2008 12:08AM: +12.5 -107 / -12.5 -101
# 01/26/2008 1:00AM: +12.5 -106 / -12.5 -102
# 01/26/2008 11:55AM: +12.5 -107 / -12.5 -101
# 01/26/2008 2:27PM: +12.5 -108 / -12.5 EVEN
# 01/26/2008 6:06PM: +12.5 -109 / -12.5 +101
# 01/27/2008 9:49AM: +12.5 -107 / -12.5 -101
# 01/27/2008 11:46PM: +12.5 -108 / -12.5 EVEN
# 01/28/2008 1:42PM: +12.5 -109 / -12.5 +101
# 01/28/2008 7:14PM: +12.5 -108 / -12.5 EVEN
# 01/29/2008 9:31AM: +12.5 -107 / -12.5 -101
# 01/31/2008 12:46AM: +12.5 -108 / -12.5 EVEN
# 01/31/2008 5:33PM: +12.5 -109 / -12.5 +101
# 01/31/2008 5:34PM: +12.5 -110 / -12.5 +102
# 01/31/2008 6:38PM: +12.5 -109 / -12.5 +101
# 01/31/2008 7:46PM: +12.5 -108 / -12.5 EVEN
# 02/01/2008 10:07AM: +12.5 -109 / -12.5 +101
# 02/01/2008 4:19PM: +12.5 -110 / -12.5 +102
# 02/02/2008 9:44AM: +12.5 -108 / -12.5 EVEN
# 02/02/2008 11:55AM: +12.5 -107 / -12.5 -101
# 02/02/2008 12:08PM: +12.5 -105 / -12.5 -103
# 02/02/2008 1:03PM: +12.5 -107 / -12.5 -101
# 02/02/2008 5:28PM: +12.5 -109 / -12.5 +101
# 02/02/2008 5:28PM: +12.5 -106 / -12.5 -102
# 02/02/2008 6:04PM: +12.5 -107 / -12.5 -101
# 02/02/2008 11:47PM: +12.5 -109 / -12.5 +101
# 02/03/2008 10:48AM: +12.5 -108 / -12.5 +102
# 02/03/2008 11:57AM: +12.5 -107 / -12.5 -101
# 02/03/2008 12:52PM: +12.5 -106 / -12.5 EVEN
# 02/03/2008 1:04PM: +12.5 -110 / -12.5 +102
# 02/03/2008 1:46PM: +12.5 -106 / -12.5 -102
# 02/03/2008 1:47PM: +12.5 -105 / -12.5 -101
# 02/03/2008 1:48PM: +12.5 -107 / -12.5 +101
# 02/03/2008 3:07PM: +12.5 -106 / -12.5 -102
# 02/03/2008 3:39PM: +12.5 -105 / -12.5 -103
# 02/03/2008 4:07PM: +12.5 -104 / -12.5 -102
# 02/03/2008 4:45PM: +12.5 -103 / -12.5 -105
# 02/03/2008 4:47PM: +12.5 Even / -12.5 -106
# 02/03/2008 4:50PM: +12.5 +101 / -12.5 -107
# 02/03/2008 4:51PM: +12.5 Even / -12.5 -106
# 02/03/2008 4:54PM: +12.5 -101 / -12.5 -105
# 02/03/2008 5:01PM: +12.5 -103 / -12.5 -103
# 02/03/2008 5:15PM: +12.5 -104 / -12.5 -102
# 02/03/2008 5:53PM: +12.5 -107 / -12.5 -101
# 02/03/2008 5:56PM: +12.5 -106 / -12.5 EVEN
# 02/03/2008 5:57PM: +12.5 -108 / -12.5 +102
# 02/03/2008 5:59PM: +12.5 -106 / -12.5 EVEN
# 02/03/2008 6:00PM: +12.5 -107 / -12.5 +101
# 02/03/2008 6:02PM: +12.5 -108 / -12.5 +102
# 02/03/2008 6:03PM: +12.5 -107 / -12.5 -101
# 02/03/2008 6:05PM: +12.5 -108 / -12.5 +102
# 02/03/2008 6:08PM: +12.5 -107 / -12.5 -101
# 02/03/2008 6:11PM: +12.5 -105 / -12.5 -103
# 02/03/2008 6:11PM: +12.5 -106 / -12.5 EVEN
# 02/03/2008 6:13PM: +12.5 -105 / -12.5 -101
# 02/03/2008 6:14PM: +12.5 -108 / -12.5 EVEN
# 02/03/2008 6:15PM: +12.5 -105 / -12.5 -101
# 02/03/2008 6:18PM: +12.5 -106 / -12.5 EVEN
# 02/03/2008 6:21PM: +12.5 -105 / -12.5 -101
# 02/03/2008 6:23PM: +12.5 -104 / -12.5 -102
# 02/03/2008 6:25PM: +12.5 -106 / -12.5 EVEN

[isetcap]

How do you check the pricing history I am curious about that kinda stuff is there some website that like tracks it all down?

Actually the data is available right here at sbrodds.

Here's Greek:

# 01/21/2008 12:03PM: +12.5 -115 / -12.5 -105
# 01/21/2008 12:25PM: +12 -115 / -12 -105
# 01/21/2008 12:26PM: +12 -110 / -12 -110
# 01/23/2008 12:51PM: +12.5 -110 / -12.5 -110
# 02/03/2008 12:45PM: +13 -110 / -13 -110
# 02/03/2008 12:48PM: +12.5 -110 / -12.5 -110
# 02/03/2008 6:06PM: +13 -110 / -13 -110
# 02/03/2008 6:22PM: +12.5 -110 / -12.5 -110

# 01/21/2008 12:03PM: +380 / -480
# 01/21/2008 12:26PM: +375 / -475
# 01/24/2008 9:24PM: +400 / -500
# 02/02/2008 10:40PM: +425 / -550

Notice that The Greek (some might think they know what they're doing), was offering +375 for NYG action a couple weeks ago.

Since they got SO MUCH ACTION at +375 they decided to discourage those NYG bettors by offering +400 3 days later.

Then AMAZINGLY, they were still getting huge amounts of NYG action by all those crafty bettors that they really wanted to turn them away by offering +425 for the last full day of wagering up until the kickoff.

[betbetter]

Yes I agree we definitely disagree. If 21-34 had come today, then I'd listen to an argument stating that books didn't make money, but it would have to be a very good argument. On January 21, Pinnacle had NE-12.5(+104). Today, they started the day with NE-12.5(+102). That price got beat down during the course of the heaviest betting period to (-107), then a late run came in on NYG bringing the price back to (+102). Finally, betting closed with a small push to NE-12.5(-101). It is hard to contemplate a scenario where it would seem the action could be much more balanced than that.

As for the ML, +435 was the closing number at Pinnacle and that was essentially the running average since January 21.

Now unless Pinnacle's models are bad and they started having a bias toward favorites, these numbers would inherently suggest they received spectacularly balanced action and sucked the juice out of a huge chunk of betting volume.

Or you can continue to convince me that they were willing to gamble on a 12.5 point favorite that hadn't covered in 5 weeks, even though that would go against the most basic bookmaking strategies ever put in place.

Evaluate the pricing history for both the spread and ml at any of the major books and you will have all the evidence you need. This betting for this game was so textbook that it was a bookmaker's dream. I imagine Pinnacle made about 1.25% on all their pre-game volume and Greek probably made about 2%. Everybody else should have been somewhere in between unless they were gambling.

I agree. That's why I said you were generalizing.

The Bodogs of the world were at 11.5 and +320. Fixed limit books could not give NE away on what was an inflated spread from the start for JoeQ Public.

Holding 1.25 - 2% for NFL is considered a loss at rec books.

Fortunately for them the take was lower this year with no new E wallet, it could have been a lot worse on a similar take from 2 years ago.