[Dark Horse]

From a math point of view, is it better to bet the 3Q before the game or at halftime?

[Ganchrow]

From a math point of view, is it better to bet the 3Q before the game or at halftime?

That woiuld heavily depend on what you believed your angle to be.

[brock]

3rd qtr betting i think would be tough before the game think would be easier at halftime

[durito]

I'd pay for the data that would give your answer.

[pico]

3rd qtr betting i think would be tough before the game think would be easier at halftime

bollocks. line will change according to the first half performance. you're not getting any advantage by doing this.

it is just like trading EUR/USD before the fed rate cut announcement versus after the announcement.

[Dark Horse]

Let's go over a few scenarios.

1) your team overperforms in 1H. Now the 3Q line comes down. You don't have a shot at a middle. Better to bet at halftime.

2) your team underperforms in 1H. Now the 3Q line goes up, and you were better off betting the 3Q before the game. You also have a shot at a middle.

So if you bet on a team that typically doesn't play a strong 1H, then it would always be better to bet on the 3Q before the game. And it would also give a lot of opportunities to middle. But if it is a team that plays a strong 1H then you want to wait until halftime for a 3Q wager. So key is to identify the scenarios when a team plays a stronger or weaker 1H. (and combine that with 3Q records).

The idea that there is a correlation between 1H and 3Q opens the door to parlays. For instance, parlay team B for 1H with team A for 3Q.

[rm18]

Let's go over a few scenarios.

1) your team overperforms in 1H. Now the 3Q line comes down. You don't have a shot at a middle. Better to bet at halftime.

2) your team underperforms in 1H. Now the 3Q line goes up, and you were better off betting the 3Q before the game. You also have a shot at a middle.

So if you bet on a team that typically doesn't play a strong 1H, then it would always be better to bet on the 3Q before the game. And it would also give a lot of opportunities to middle.

The idea that there is a correlation between 1H and 3Q opens the door to parlays. Parlay team B for 1H with team A for 3Q.

Maybe try Orlando 1st half parlayed with Philadelphia 2rd quarter tomorrow. Especially strong because Dwight Howard is the #1 jum ball guy in the league so Philly gets ball 1st in the 3rd.

[jjgold]

3rd qtrs are only good after the half is completed.

Any books take 3rd ate bets after 1st half complete

[Frank]

3rd qtrs are only good after the half is completed.

Any books take 3rd ate bets after 1st half complete

Greek
5 Dimes

[rm18]

cris, sportsbook on tv games

[pico]

Let's go over a few scenarios.

1) your team overperforms in 1H. Now the 3Q line comes down. You don't have a shot at a middle. Better to bet at halftime.

2) your team underperforms in 1H. Now the 3Q line goes up, and you were better off betting the 3Q before the game. You also have a shot at a middle.

So if you bet on a team that typically doesn't play a strong 1H, then it would always be better to bet on the 3Q before the game. And it would also give a lot of opportunities to middle. But if it is a team that plays a strong 1H then you want to wait until halftime for a 3Q wager. So key is to identify the scenarios when a team plays a stronger or weaker 1H. (and combine that with 3Q records).

The idea that there is a correlation between 1H and 3Q opens the door to parlays. For instance, parlay team B for 1H with team A for 3Q.

that is very subjective. shouldn't the line makers already have the data on all the past 1h team performances? if they're looking at the same data as you, then the 3q line should already factored in the probability that team over/underperform during the 1h.

unless you can get a player shaving pts 1h, i am pretty sketical you can predict which game a typical over/underforming 1h will actually over/underperform.

[rm18]

1st half or quarter lines are made off of the game line, no underperforming factored in. Those Laker championship teams were an easy fade in the 1st half

[pico]

1st half or quarter lines are made off of the game line, no underperforming factored in. Those Laker championship teams were an easy fade in the 1st half

i know lakers are great 2nd half team...saw kobe sink consecutive 3pters the last 2 min. but have you actually looked at how many time lakers did well 1st half? without stats, you're just speculating that you think they do better 2nd half.

[rm18]

i know lakers are great 2nd half team...saw kobe sink consecutive 3pters the last 2 min. but have you actually looked at how many time lakers did well 1st half? without stats, you're just speculating that you think they do better 2nd half.

Didn't mean this year, though they probably are better this year too. But especially the year they were three time defending champs they were big favorites in most games, down at the half way over 50% of the time even though they were laying points every night.

[rm18]

I mean they would be favored by 9 game and 5 first half even though they were obviously a second half team

[Dark Horse]

that is very subjective. shouldn't the line makers already have the data on all the past 1h team performances? if they're looking at the same data as you, then the 3q line should already factored in the probability that team over/underperform during the 1h.

unless you can get a player shaving pts 1h, i am pretty sketical you can predict which game a typical over/underforming 1h will actually over/underperform.

Linesmakers don't really do that for the 3Q at halftime. They only have so much 'line' to work with, because they have to stay within a proportion of the line for the full game. Plus they have to stay within public expectation. Earlier this season teams like the Celtics and Pistons were drop dead gorgeous for 3Q bets.

If you study teams in different situations (not that hard), you can often determine if they will play a strong 1H or not. For a few years I played the PHX Suns for the 1H after they failed to win the previous 2H... Free money. This year they're not consistent, so that angle is gone. But other teams step up.

[HedgeHog]

Let's go over a few scenarios.1)* your team overperforms in 1H.* Now the 3Q line comes down.** You don't have a shot at a middle.* Better to bet at halftime. 2) your team underperforms in 1H. Now the 3Q line goes up, and you were better off betting the 3Q before the game.* You also have a shot at a middle. So if you bet on a team that typically doesn't play a strong 1H, then it would always be better to bet on the 3Q before the game. And it would also give a lot of opportunities to middle.* But if it is a team that plays a strong 1H then you want to wait until halftime for a 3Q wager.* So key is to identify the scenarios when a team plays a stronger or weaker 1H. (and combine that with 3Q records). The idea that there is a correlation between 1H and 3Q opens the door to parlays. For instance, parlay team B for 1H with team A for 3Q.

Instead of looking for a good 3rd-Q bet, you'd be better off concentrating on the 1st Half. You had two assumptions: one if your team does well in the first half, then bet on them in the first half. Conversely, if they are a bad first half team, then bet bet against them in the 1st half. Why worry about the third quarter if you already have a winning first half bias?

[Dark Horse]

Why worry about the third quarter if you already have a winning first half bias?

There are 3Q angles that are just as valid as 1H angles.

A lot of the time a weak 1H is followed by a strong 3Q, and vice versa, so there may be something into parlaying those.

[purecarnagge]

your dumb to bet 3q ahead of time. I mean what if your team tanks. Then your screwed. 3rd Q bets are good halftime or middle of the 1st half plays.

[donjuan]

your dumb to bet 3q ahead of time. I mean what if your team tanks. Then your screwed. 3rd Q bets are good halftime or middle of the 1st half plays.

1. I am assuming 3Q bets are just for the 3rd quarter (as opposed to the score in the game after the 3rd quarter) so it would actually be better for your team to underperform in the first half. If you don't believe this, take a look at 2H lines that come out at halftime.

2. We are talking about small edges when talking about sports betting generally. You don't win every time.

[VBOMBER]

Is there any website that provides easily accessible stats for each individual quarter or half (beyond just the points scored)? Or do you have to pull these from game logs and then reconcile the individual quarters with the full game?