write up: Oregon +4 vs #8 UCLA: 0/u 144
Oregon +4 vs #8 UCLA: 0/u 144
UCLA (RPI #15, Sagarin #6)
16-2
9-6-2 ats
3-0 away
0/u 7-10
Oregon (RPI #30, Sagarin #36)
12-6
9-6-1 ats
8-0 home
0/u 6-9-1
Line opened UCLA -3.5
Current line UCLA (-3.5)/(-4)
wagerline consensus: 73.68% on UCLA
UCLA comes into this game having won 9 of their last 10, the lone loss coming in their most recent matchup (USC). The Bruins have played 3 in a row at home and this will be their first true big road test of the 07/08 season. Previously they've played at Stanford and at Cal, but this time the bruins are making the trip out of state to the wild campus in Eugene. UCLA doesnt have a large sample size away from home, but they have covered their road games fairly easily and they've really buckled down on the defensive end away from home. Overall this team ranks 7th in scoring defense holding their opposition to under 57 points per game. The bruins defense doesnt have a great fg% defense, though its not bad, but they hold teams to low totals by limiting their possessions and quick scoring chances; once you're in a half court game, the bruins really make you earn your buckets. Aside from their ability to defend the ball, UCLA also creates an advantage for themselves on the boards where they are 3rd nationall in rebounding margin. Oregon, on the other hand, ranks 81rst. Clearly, the bruins should have the advantage on the glass.
The bad news for the bruins comes with this news as coach Howland goes over the injury concerns for tonights matchup:
"Lorenzo is doubtful for Thursday's game. Luc is questionable. There's a lot that goes into it. They do computerized tests; all these types of tests. Some of it depends on headache, and Lorenzo still had a headache (Monday). …I'm not as optimistic about him as I am about Luc, but Luc is still questionable."
"It looked like on the film, I watched it a number of times, Luc went up and then he had his head caught right in front of him and hit Keith Wilkinson's chest. He caught his head kind of scraping across (Wilkinson), and when I talked to him the next day, he said, 'Yeah, my neck kind of hurts.' And it made sense to me that was the play.
"I think the adrenalin took over and allowed him to play the rest of the half. He obviously wasn't himself, and when you sit down for a 15 minute halftime, I think the adrenalin starts to dissipate. He came out the second half, and unbeknownst to us, he was completely out of it. He made four plays in a row that were all plays he doesn't normally make blunders, three on defense and one on offense. When he came out, you could see, he was out of it -- glassy-eyed."
How tough is it if Luc and Lorenzo cannot play?
Howland:
"It'll be hard no matter what, but it'll be doubly difficult without Luc, who's one of our best players and one of our best defensive players."
If the two big men are out, UCLA will be losing 10 boards per game and some valuable minutes.
(another link to the injury concerns: http://www.dailynews.com/sports/ci_8060584 both predicted as doubtful)
In his interview, Howland also discussed what he saw as some problems vs the Trojans in their recent home loss:
"This team's always responded well when we've had a loss, and didn't play well, more importantly. A lot of things we can improve on. I did a poor job in terms of preparation for this team, because we were really out of sorts. Our transition defense was very, very poor. I can't remember giving up that many layups and dunks to a team in a long time. I can't even remember the last time.
"A lot of that was USC was very, very good, but a lot of it was also our responsibility and we're going to make a few changes. Our transition defense, we got hurt so bad, but also our shot selection. We had a four-point lead, 57-53. We took three shots in our next four possessions, with the lead, when we still had 25 seconds on the shot clock and three of the four weren't (good shots). And we were playing without Luc.
"I didn't do a good job, I should have put Chace Stanback in, in retrospect, because Josh Shipp, Darren Collison and Russell Westbrook all played the rest of the half after he came out after the first two minutes after (Mbah a Moute) came out. That's just poor coaching because you can't expect guys to play that long. Some of that decision making on those shots are probably attributed to fatigue and that's my fault for not giving the guys a little more rest."
-bruinblitz.com
It seems that this team will be focused on stopping the ducks in transition and getting better shots which could mean fewer possessions for both teams. Finally, Coach goes over his concerns about the Ducks offensive attack:
"They're a very difficult match-up for us, because they all shoot it so well and they spread you out. Those three seniors – Malik Hairston, Bryce Taylor and Maarty Leunen – have been through a lot of games and have a lot of experience. The little guy Tajuan Porter, you don't know when he's going to go off and put 30 on someone. I just hope it's not us on Thursday night. He's so hard to guard because he's so quick."
The Ducks have struggled in their last 2 contests and it will be nice for them to get back home. Oregon was outlasted in both games of their recent road trip which saw them fall to Stanford and Cal. The good news isnt limited to being back home, Oregon will also get back Forward Joevan Catron, who has yet to play in any pac-10 games this season. The plan is to bring him along slowly, but he should be able to give Oregon a few minutes, a few fouls, and a decent presence down low. Before getting sick, Catron was putting up almost 11 and 8 a game; hes a solid player.
Where Oregon can till teams is with the 3. Hairston and Luenen are the leaders of this team and each are hitting over 47% from behind the arc. As a team the Duck dont hit an overwhleming percentage of their 3s, but they'll put up over 20 a night and, when they're on, they can score in a hurry. The tough thing about matching up with this team is that guys like Luenen and Hairston can knock down the 3, but both are even more dangerous inside. Luenen is a monster on the boards, averaging 10 a game, and Hairston is putting up 18 points a contest on 55% shooting. Oregon is one of the best shooting teams in the country and thats how they win their games, they try to outscore you and get good looks on the offensive end.
Defensively the men in green and yellow are almost as disgusting as their jersies, coming in at 145 nationally in fg% defense. This defense will focus on kevin love in his return to oregon and its a challenge love has been waiting for. "It's going to be ruthless out there," Love predicted.
the ex factor?
First-year assistant coach Scott Duncan spent the past seven years at Oregon, twice helping the Ducks get within a victory of the Final Four. He shared in-depth knowledge of Oregon's personnel with his new team this week in hopes of providing the Bruins a tactical edge as they try to bounce back from Saturday's stunning loss to USC.
"It's very helpful having him," guard Josh Shipp said. "In the Pac-10, teams are so close that any little edge you can get is huge. He's been able to share a lot of things that will help us."
Well, it looks like the Bruins will be without a couple of their better defenders and the Ducks will be inspired to get a conference win, a home win, and to welcome home Kevin Love. There should be plenty of scoring in this one, but the total looks about right. my play tonight is on Oregon.
Oregon +4
(mofome)
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Originally Posted by Wrigley
