[rake922]

LT Profits?

Anybody?

[Data]

About 0.065.

[rm18]

but depends on the line, games where the favorite is projected to win SU over 90% should go OT much less often

[chandler1981]

RM18,
Can you explain what you are saying? I think I am reading it wrong. Aren't all favorites projected to win all the time?

[ShamsWoof10]

Originally Posted by rm18

but depends on the line, games where the favorite is projected to win SU over 90% should go OT much less often

I would think this is factored in... I would think all the games of all spreads are factored in...

Are you saying a lower spread has a better chance of going into OT then a high spread..?

[rm18]

I mean games with big spreads are less likely to go OT because they are less likely to be close.

[rm18]

I don't have any data, but I would think high scoring games go OT more often though just off of memory.

[donjuan]

Are you saying a lower spread has a better chance of going into OT then a high spread..?

You would have to be a retard to not figure this out intuitively.

[Scorpion]

Originally Posted by rm18

I don't have any data, but I would think high scoring games go OT more often though just off of memory.

Yes, if a game goes OVER in the first half it has a higher chance OT!

[Scorpion]

Originally Posted by rake922

What's the probability of a game going to overtime in the NBA?

I read somewhere 6.8%

[RickySteve]

0.066883117

[imgv94]

Damn, I thought it would be higher.

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by rake922

What's the probability of a game going to overtime in the NBA?

Using covers.com regular season and playoff data from the 1997/98 season to date:

Season	OT Games	Tot Games	%
1997/98	76	1,260	6.032%
1998/99	49	791	6.195%
1999/00	66	1,264	5.222%
2000/01	85	1,260	6.746%
2001/02	75	1,260	5.952%
2002/03	94	1,277	7.361%
2003/04	75	1,271	5.901%
2004/05	85	1,314	6.469%
2005/06	96	1,319	7.278%
2006/07	90	1,309	6.875%
2007/08	33	621	5.314%
TOTAL	824	12,946	6.365%

[nitsuj]

Originally Posted by Ganchrow

Using covers.com regular season and playoff data from the 1997/98 season to date:

 Season  	OT Games  	Tot Games  	     %
1997/98 	76      	1,260   	6.032%
1998/99 	49      	791     	6.195%
1999/00 	66      	1,264   	5.222%
2000/01 	85      	1,260   	6.746%
2001/02 	75      	1,260   	5.952%
2002/03 	94      	1,277   	7.361%
2003/04 	75      	1,271   	5.901%
2004/05 	85      	1,314   	6.469%
2005/06 	96      	1,319   	7.278%
2006/07 	90      	1,309   	6.875%
2007/08 	33      	621     	5.314%
TOTAL   	824      	12,946   	6.365%

If it's not too much work, can you group them by spreads?

Thanks.

[shasso]

A bit over 6% makes sence since the lines for a draw are originally 15 and 15 is 1/0,0666. Some books use 12 tho and some change it on the basis if match is supposed to be close or not.

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by nitsuj

If it's not too much work, can you group them by spreads?

Spread	OT Games	Tot Games	%
0	24	306	7.843%
1	43	536	8.022%
1.5	26	378	6.878%
2	45	663	6.787%
2.5	62	668	9.281%
3	69	750	9.200%
3.5	56	727	7.703%
4	54	759	7.115%
4.5	42	754	5.570%
5	56	749	7.477%
5.5	49	647	7.573%
6	47	722	6.510%
6.5	34	653	5.207%
7	34	609	5.583%
7.5	25	493	5.071%
8	30	521	5.758%
8.5	28	425	6.588%
9	19	423	4.492%
9.5	16	366	4.372%
10	9	307	2.932%
10.5	11	241	4.564%
11	10	241	4.149%
11.5	11	175	6.286%
12	8	164	4.878%
12.5	6	140	4.286%
13	7	130	5.385%
13.5	1	91	1.099%
14	0	94	0.000%
14.5	1	56	1.786%
15	1	61	1.639%
15.5	0	30	0.000%
16	1	42	2.381%
16.5	0	9	0.000%
17	0	16	0.000%
17.5	0	11	0.000%
18	0	4	0.000%
18.5	0	2	0.000%
19	0	2	0.000%
19.5	0	1	0.000%
TOTAL	825	12,966	6.363%

[rake922]

Ganchrow what span is that?

How many seasons?

Reg season only?

[durito]

Originally Posted by rake922

Ganchrow what span is that?

How many seasons?

Reg season only?

..

Originally Posted by Ganchrow

Using covers.com regular season and playoff data from the 1997/98 season to date:

[brock]

cool info, so about 6 out of every 100 go OT

[pokernut9999]

And all this info helps who ?

Can I win more bets knowing this ?

[imgv94]

Lol

[rm18]

Originally Posted by pokernut9999

And all this info helps who ?

Can I win more bets knowing this ?

you should factor this in to betting totals, game and second half

[pokernut9999]

Originally Posted by rm18

you should factor this in to betting totals, game and second half

Yea , I think I will just skip totals all together now. If I had this info earlier I would have never bet a total.

[rake922]

_