SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks Recommended Books
1. Pinnacle Sports SBR Rating A+ Pinnacle Sports Review
2. The Greek Sports Book SBR Rating A+ The Greek Review
3. BookMaker SBR Rating A+ BookMaker Review
4. BetJamaica SBR Rating A+ BetJamaica Review
5. LegendZ Sports SBR Rating A+ LegendZ Review
SBR Posters' Poll - August 2008 View Complete Results
1. Matchbook 195 total points Matchbook Review
2. BetJamaica 182 total points BetJamaica Review
3. The Greek Sports Book 160 total points The Greek Review
4. Pinnacle Sports 130 total points Pinnacle Sports Review
5. 5Dimes 125 total points 5Dimes Review
Go Back   Sports Handicapping, Betting & Picks - SBR Forum > Sports Betting, Sportsbooks & General Discussion > Players Talk

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 01-23-2008, 11:13 PM   #1 (permalink)
rake922
SBR MVP
 
rake922's Avatar
 
Join Date: 12-23-07
Posts: 4,239
rake922 is offline
Default What's the probability of a game going to overtime in the NBA?

LT Profits?

Anybody?
__________________
MATCHBOOK for the win
Reply With Quote
Old 01-24-2008, 12:29 AM   #2 (permalink)
Data
SBR Wise Guy
 
Data's Avatar
 
Join Date: 11-27-07
Location: U.S.S. Enterprise NCC-1701-E
Posts: 999
Data is offline
Default

About 0.065.
Reply With Quote
Old 01-24-2008, 12:33 AM   #3 (permalink)
rm18
SBR MVP
 
rm18's Avatar
 
Join Date: 09-20-05
Posts: 3,923
rm18 is offline
Default

but depends on the line, games where the favorite is projected to win SU over 90% should go OT much less often
Reply With Quote
Old 01-24-2008, 12:36 AM   #4 (permalink)
chandler1981
SBR Sharp
 
chandler1981's Avatar
 
Join Date: 11-18-07
Location: SC
Posts: 424
chandler1981 is offline
Default

RM18,
Can you explain what you are saying? I think I am reading it wrong. Aren't all favorites projected to win all the time?
Reply With Quote
Old 01-24-2008, 12:39 AM   #5 (permalink)
ShamsWoof10
SBR MVP
 
ShamsWoof10's Avatar
 
Join Date: 11-15-06
Posts: 4,592
ShamsWoof10 is online now
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by rm18 View Post
but depends on the line, games where the favorite is projected to win SU over 90% should go OT much less often
I would think this is factored in... I would think all the games of all spreads are factored in...

Are you saying a lower spread has a better chance of going into OT then a high spread..?

Reply With Quote
Old 01-24-2008, 12:39 AM   #6 (permalink)
rm18
SBR MVP
 
rm18's Avatar
 
Join Date: 09-20-05
Posts: 3,923
rm18 is offline
Default

I mean games with big spreads are less likely to go OT because they are less likely to be close.
Reply With Quote
Old 01-24-2008, 12:41 AM   #7 (permalink)
rm18
SBR MVP
 
rm18's Avatar
 
Join Date: 09-20-05
Posts: 3,923
rm18 is offline
Default

I don't have any data, but I would think high scoring games go OT more often though just off of memory.
Reply With Quote
Old 01-24-2008, 02:02 AM   #8 (permalink)
donjuan
SBR MVP
 
donjuan's Avatar
 
Join Date: 08-29-07
Posts: 2,454
donjuan is online now
Default

Quote:
Are you saying a lower spread has a better chance of going into OT then a high spread..?
You would have to be a retard to not figure this out intuitively.
Reply With Quote
Old 01-24-2008, 02:37 AM   #9 (permalink)
Scorpion
SBR MVP
 
Scorpion's Avatar
 
Join Date: 09-04-05
Posts: 1,137
Scorpion is offline
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by rm18 View Post
I don't have any data, but I would think high scoring games go OT more often though just off of memory.
Yes, if a game goes OVER in the first half it has a higher chance OT!

Last edited by Scorpion : 01-24-2008 at 04:24 AM.
Reply With Quote
Old 01-24-2008, 02:39 AM   #10 (permalink)
Scorpion
SBR MVP
 
Scorpion's Avatar
 
Join Date: 09-04-05
Posts: 1,137
Scorpion is offline
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by rake922 View Post
What's the probability of a game going to overtime in the NBA?
I read somewhere 6.8%
Reply With Quote
Old 01-24-2008, 06:07 AM   #11 (permalink)
RickySteve
SBR MVP
 
Join Date: 01-31-06
Posts: 1,952
RickySteve is offline
Default

0.066883117
Reply With Quote
Old 01-24-2008, 06:13 AM   #12 (permalink)
imgv94
SBR
 
imgv94's Avatar
 
Join Date: 11-16-05
Location:               
Posts: 18,143
imgv94 is offline
Default

Damn, I thought it would be higher.
Reply With Quote
Old 01-24-2008, 08:27 AM   #13 (permalink)
Ganchrow
Moderator
 
Ganchrow's Avatar
 
Join Date: 08-28-05
Location: Forest Hills, NY, Home of the Blitzkrieg Bop
Posts: 4,813
Ganchrow is offline
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by rake922 View Post
What's the probability of a game going to overtime in the NBA?
Using covers.com regular season and playoff data from the 1997/98 season to date:
Season OT Games Tot Games %
1997/98 76 1,260 6.032%
1998/99 49 791 6.195%
1999/00 66 1,264 5.222%
2000/01 85 1,260 6.746%
2001/02 75 1,260 5.952%
2002/03 94 1,277 7.361%
2003/04 75 1,271 5.901%
2004/05 85 1,314 6.469%
2005/06 96 1,319 7.278%
2006/07 90 1,309 6.875%
2007/08 33 621 5.314%
TOTAL 824 12,946 6.365%
__________________
Reply With Quote
Old 01-27-2008, 07:23 AM   #14 (permalink)
nitsuj
SBR Rookie
 
Join Date: 12-16-07
Posts: 4
nitsuj is offline
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ganchrow View Post
Using covers.com regular season and playoff data from the 1997/98 season to date:
Code:
 Season  	OT Games  	Tot Games  	     %
1997/98 	76      	1,260   	6.032%
1998/99 	49      	791     	6.195%
1999/00 	66      	1,264   	5.222%
2000/01 	85      	1,260   	6.746%
2001/02 	75      	1,260   	5.952%
2002/03 	94      	1,277   	7.361%
2003/04 	75      	1,271   	5.901%
2004/05 	85      	1,314   	6.469%
2005/06 	96      	1,319   	7.278%
2006/07 	90      	1,309   	6.875%
2007/08 	33      	621     	5.314%
TOTAL   	824      	12,946   	6.365%
If it's not too much work, can you group them by spreads?

Thanks.
Reply With Quote
Old 01-27-2008, 07:33 AM   #15 (permalink)
shasso
SBR High Roller
 
shasso's Avatar
 
Join Date: 01-15-08
Location: Slovenia
Posts: 153
shasso is offline
Default

A bit over 6% makes sence since the lines for a draw are originally 15 and 15 is 1/0,0666. Some books use 12 tho and some change it on the basis if match is supposed to be close or not.
Reply With Quote
Old 01-27-2008, 12:13 PM   #16 (permalink)
Ganchrow
Moderator
 
Ganchrow's Avatar
 
Join Date: 08-28-05
Location: Forest Hills, NY, Home of the Blitzkrieg Bop
Posts: 4,813
Ganchrow is offline
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by nitsuj View Post
If it's not too much work, can you group them by spreads?
Spread OT Games Tot Games %
0 24 306 7.843%
1 43 536 8.022%
1.5 26 378 6.878%
2 45 663 6.787%
2.5 62 668 9.281%
3 69 750 9.200%
3.5 56 727 7.703%
4 54 759 7.115%
4.5 42 754 5.570%
5 56 749 7.477%
5.5 49 647 7.573%
6 47 722 6.510%
6.5 34 653 5.207%
7 34 609 5.583%
7.5 25 493 5.071%
8 30 521 5.758%
8.5 28 425 6.588%
9 19 423 4.492%
9.5 16 366 4.372%
10 9 307 2.932%
10.5 11 241 4.564%
11 10 241 4.149%
11.5 11 175 6.286%
12 8 164 4.878%
12.5 6 140 4.286%
13 7 130 5.385%
13.5 1 91 1.099%
14 0 94 0.000%
14.5 1 56 1.786%
15 1 61 1.639%
15.5 0 30 0.000%
16 1 42 2.381%
16.5 0