|
01-23-2008, 11:13 PM
|
#1 (permalink)
|
|
SBR MVP
Join Date: 12-23-07
Posts: 4,239
|
What's the probability of a game going to overtime in the NBA?
LT Profits?
Anybody?
|
|
|
|
|
01-24-2008, 12:29 AM
|
#2 (permalink)
|
|
SBR Wise Guy
Join Date: 11-27-07
Location: U.S.S. Enterprise NCC-1701-E
Posts: 999
|
About 0.065.
|
|
|
|
|
01-24-2008, 12:33 AM
|
#3 (permalink)
|
|
SBR MVP
Join Date: 09-20-05
Posts: 3,923
|
but depends on the line, games where the favorite is projected to win SU over 90% should go OT much less often
|
|
|
|
|
01-24-2008, 12:36 AM
|
#4 (permalink)
|
|
SBR Sharp
Join Date: 11-18-07
Location: SC
Posts: 424
|
RM18,
Can you explain what you are saying? I think I am reading it wrong. Aren't all favorites projected to win all the time?
|
|
|
|
|
01-24-2008, 12:39 AM
|
#5 (permalink)
|
|
SBR MVP
Join Date: 11-15-06
Posts: 4,592
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by rm18
but depends on the line, games where the favorite is projected to win SU over 90% should go OT much less often
|
I would think this is factored in... I would think all the games of all spreads are factored in...
Are you saying a lower spread has a better chance of going into OT then a high spread..?
 |
|
|
|
|
01-24-2008, 12:39 AM
|
#6 (permalink)
|
|
SBR MVP
Join Date: 09-20-05
Posts: 3,923
|
I mean games with big spreads are less likely to go OT because they are less likely to be close.
|
|
|
|
|
01-24-2008, 12:41 AM
|
#7 (permalink)
|
|
SBR MVP
Join Date: 09-20-05
Posts: 3,923
|
I don't have any data, but I would think high scoring games go OT more often though just off of memory.
|
|
|
|
|
01-24-2008, 02:02 AM
|
#8 (permalink)
|
|
SBR MVP
Join Date: 08-29-07
Posts: 2,454
|
Quote:
|
Are you saying a lower spread has a better chance of going into OT then a high spread..?
|
You would have to be a retard to not figure this out intuitively. |
|
|
|
|
01-24-2008, 02:37 AM
|
#9 (permalink)
|
|
SBR MVP
Join Date: 09-04-05
Posts: 1,137
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by rm18
I don't have any data, but I would think high scoring games go OT more often though just off of memory.
|
Yes, if a game goes OVER in the first half it has a higher chance OT!
Last edited by Scorpion : 01-24-2008 at 04:24 AM.
|
|
|
|
|
01-24-2008, 02:39 AM
|
#10 (permalink)
|
|
SBR MVP
Join Date: 09-04-05
Posts: 1,137
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by rake922
What's the probability of a game going to overtime in the NBA?
|
I read somewhere 6.8% |
|
|
|
|
01-24-2008, 06:07 AM
|
#11 (permalink)
|
|
SBR MVP
Join Date: 01-31-06
Posts: 1,952
|
0.066883117
|
|
|
|
|
01-24-2008, 06:13 AM
|
#12 (permalink)
|
|
SBR
Join Date: 11-16-05
Location:
Posts: 18,143
|
Damn, I thought it would be higher.
|
|
|
|
|
01-24-2008, 08:27 AM
|
#13 (permalink)
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: 08-28-05
Location: Forest Hills, NY, Home of the Blitzkrieg Bop
Posts: 4,813
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by rake922
What's the probability of a game going to overtime in the NBA?
|
Using covers.com regular season and playoff data from the 1997/98 season to date: | Season | OT Games | Tot Games | %
| | 1997/98 | 76 | 1,260 | 6.032%
| | 1998/99 | 49 | 791 | 6.195%
| | 1999/00 | 66 | 1,264 | 5.222%
| | 2000/01 | 85 | 1,260 | 6.746%
| | 2001/02 | 75 | 1,260 | 5.952%
| | 2002/03 | 94 | 1,277 | 7.361%
| | 2003/04 | 75 | 1,271 | 5.901%
| | 2004/05 | 85 | 1,314 | 6.469%
| | 2005/06 | 96 | 1,319 | 7.278%
| | 2006/07 | 90 | 1,309 | 6.875%
| | 2007/08 | 33 | 621 | 5.314%
| | TOTAL | 824 | 12,946 | 6.365%
|
__________________
|
|
|
|
|
01-27-2008, 07:23 AM
|
#14 (permalink)
|
|
SBR Rookie
Join Date: 12-16-07
Posts: 4
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ganchrow
Using covers.com regular season and playoff data from the 1997/98 season to date:
Code:
Season OT Games Tot Games %
1997/98 76 1,260 6.032%
1998/99 49 791 6.195%
1999/00 66 1,264 5.222%
2000/01 85 1,260 6.746%
2001/02 75 1,260 5.952%
2002/03 94 1,277 7.361%
2003/04 75 1,271 5.901%
2004/05 85 1,314 6.469%
2005/06 96 1,319 7.278%
2006/07 90 1,309 6.875%
2007/08 33 621 5.314%
TOTAL 824 12,946 6.365%
|
If it's not too much work, can you group them by spreads?
Thanks. |
|
|
|
|
01-27-2008, 07:33 AM
|
#15 (permalink)
|
|
SBR High Roller
Join Date: 01-15-08
Location: Slovenia
Posts: 153
|
A bit over 6% makes sence since the lines for a draw are originally 15 and 15 is 1/0,0666. Some books use 12 tho and some change it on the basis if match is supposed to be close or not.
|
|
|
|
|
01-27-2008, 12:13 PM
|
#16 (permalink)
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: 08-28-05
Location: Forest Hills, NY, Home of the Blitzkrieg Bop
Posts: 4,813
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by nitsuj
If it's not too much work, can you group them by spreads?
|
| Spread | OT Games | Tot Games | %
| | 0 | 24 | 306 | 7.843%
| | 1 | 43 | 536 | 8.022%
| | 1.5 | 26 | 378 | 6.878%
| | 2 | 45 | 663 | 6.787%
| | 2.5 | 62 | 668 | 9.281%
| | 3 | 69 | 750 | 9.200%
| | 3.5 | 56 | 727 | 7.703%
| | 4 | 54 | 759 | 7.115%
| | 4.5 | 42 | 754 | 5.570%
| | 5 | 56 | 749 | 7.477%
| | 5.5 | 49 | 647 | 7.573%
| | 6 | 47 | 722 | 6.510%
| | 6.5 | 34 | 653 | 5.207%
| | 7 | 34 | 609 | 5.583%
| | 7.5 | 25 | 493 | 5.071%
| | 8 | 30 | 521 | 5.758%
| | 8.5 | 28 | 425 | 6.588%
| | 9 | 19 | 423 | 4.492%
| | 9.5 | 16 | 366 | 4.372%
| | 10 | 9 | 307 | 2.932%
| | 10.5 | 11 | 241 | 4.564%
| | 11 | 10 | 241 | 4.149%
| | 11.5 | 11 | 175 | 6.286%
| | 12 | 8 | 164 | 4.878%
| | 12.5 | 6 | 140 | 4.286%
| | 13 | 7 | 130 | 5.385%
| | 13.5 | 1 | 91 | 1.099%
| | 14 | 0 | 94 | 0.000%
| | 14.5 | 1 | 56 | 1.786%
| | 15 | 1 | 61 | 1.639%
| | 15.5 | 0 | 30 | 0.000%
| | 16 | 1 | 42 | 2.381%
| | 16.5 | 0 | | |
