[SBR_John]

The best first step to capping a game is setting your own line. Do not look at the opening line! Do a little research and set a line. Then compare your line to the market line. Do some more research to explain the difference.

Another tip is be ready to pass on all games. Dont force a bet on a coin flip game because you need action. You dont need action you need winners. The juice will slowly eat you if you are betting coin flips.

Other tips?

[20Four7]

so far I agree with what you said. I do that in NFL and set my own line.

I think it's easier to cap if your a fan of the sport. I like football and hockey therefore follow it more closely. I really dislike the game of basketball and therefore don't follow it so it makes life a little difficult. I find myself "forced" to watch BB to improve my analysis.

[buztah]

I set my own lines and compare to what the pros/books have. I always have an angle when betting a game and never bet b/c the game is on or because I'm bored. I pretend that I must justify each bet to a room of investors, as if I'm betting their money (sort of like a mutual fund manager who must explain to investors why he bought X stock). Once I'm comfortable I place the wager.

[BigBollocks]

You may have just given the two best tips John in setting your own independently determined line and the power of passing.

The one I'd throw in is looking at profit rather than winning percentage. This applies for almost any sport. I play a lot of MLs that I don't even believe will win the majority of time, but I believe the value is so strong that one cannot pass it up. It's not rare for me to hit 40% and have huge weeks. GL...

[Dark Horse]

Keep records that show you what you need to know in a quick, concise format. For example, if you want to know how a NBA team does in 3Q, you need to have all their games below each other, for easy comparison. So on one line you have:

Date (i.e. effects of scheduling), H/A line, halftime score, 3Q pt differential, 3Q ATS result, streak (how many times they won -or lost- the 3Q ATS in a row). Throw out first six games of season.

In this way you can keep track of any effective angles, and have them ready on game day. Examples: RF with rest in 1Q, 1H at home, 2H at home, DD HF in 3Q, 1H after SU loss, etc.

[SBR Lou]

Good thread.

Not betting a game just because it's on TV is key, like in the NFL on Sundays I'm fine because there's a big selection of games, but when it gets to 8pm that night or Monday night and you're bored sitting at home and a game is on, you get this urge to have something on the game whether or not you like it. I try to ask myself if I'd play it if it were on Sunday early but sometimes I can't help myself and throw a bet down.

[McBa1n]

I read a LOT of local news for respective teams. I do a lot better as a math handicapper, but I do pick out a lot of diamonds by reading local beat reporters of teams in games I'm looking at. I really only have time to do so for the NFL - but you can get a real good pulse at things like focus or distraction, which can give you a strong edge in finding dogs.

A perfect example is the 2nd Packers/Bears game. The Chi media and the Bears were really fired up for the game - meanwhile there was nothing but patting on the back in the GB/Milwaukee news/interviews and very little talk about the actual game. Mix in with a bad weather report and you had a sick ML play on Chi at home that easily covered.

I can probably get 15-20 plays doing this every season - but it's only about an extra hour or 2 per day of work outside of film study and math. Worth it? When you make money, I think it is.

[remmy358]

anyone thats crunching #'s is mainly wasting their time. the way to make money is to line shop and hit line movements when they move in your perceived favor...

using past stats to predict the future is a waste of time. you should use the future to predict the future. generally, the past is NO predictor of the future!

[durito]

anyone thats crunching #'s is mainly wasting their time. the way to make money is to line shop and hit line movements when they move in your perceived favor...

using past stats to predict the future is a waste of time. you should use the future to predict the future. generally, the past is NO predictor of the future!

So when the sportsbooks go to set the line sunday night on New England vs whomever they play, will they just make up a line, or will they base it based on past stats?

[remmy358]

So when the sportsbooks go to set the line sunday night on New England vs whomever they play, will they just make up a line, or will they base it based on past stats?

it's a lot more than just past stats...#'s don't tell the true story often. of course they have to use #'s somewhat - but there are a select group of categories that are important - turnovers, etc...

#'s rarely ever tell the true story. the old pats' teams never had great #'s but they won...

trends change...they don't stay the same...

using the past to predict the future just doesn't work

[durito]

I couldn't disagree more.

You have to research what stats correlate to future games and which stats don't. Turnovers in the NFL, for example, are not very predictive.

Other stats are. Otherwise setting a point spread would be impossible.

But, i digress. I guest I'm wasting a lot of time.

[Dark Horse]

using past stats to predict the future is a waste of time. you should use the future to predict the future. generally, the past is NO predictor of the future!

Sounds like it's true for you. But why would you assume it is true for everyone?

Teams have habits that translate into numbers. Habits will often carry over into future events. That's why they're habits.

But you are right that the past alone is thin ice. I use overlays (based on past), but also predictive angles (such as biorhythms).

[Jamie_UK]

The best first step to capping a game is setting your own line.

The first step to capping a game is checking Pinny Dinamos and finding a slow book.

[pokernut9999]

I won a boat load of games this year using past stats ,trends or whatever you want to call it.

[Data]

The best first step to capping a game is setting your own line.

I always hear about capping and I am curious what is it. This post just confirms my suspicions that I have never done it myself as setting my own line is not the first but the last step of what I do. Looking forward to more replies hoping to get a glimpse of that mysterious process.

[Dark Horse]

Diana Troy forgot to mention it?

[jjgold]

Biggest mistake almost all gamblers make is betting too many games. Bookmakers do not like spot bettors, they like guys that bet many games per day.

[eyeball]

Coach why is that betting too many games screws you? Is it the juice?..thanks

[onlooker]

Another tip is be ready to pass on all games. Dont force a bet on a coin flip game because you need action. You dont need action you need winners. The juice will slowly eat you if you are betting coin flips.

That is probably the best tip anyone can use. Don't search for a game just to have action on.

The one I'd throw in is looking at profit rather than winning percentage. This applies for almost any sport. I play a lot of MLs that I don't even believe will win the majority of time, but I believe the value is so strong that one cannot pass it up. It's not rare for me to hit 40% and have huge weeks. GL...

I love it when my percentage is under 50% and still up good on a day, week, month or year.


Injuries. Know who is banged up and if any one player will be in or out.

[SBR_John]

I always hear about capping and I am curious what is it. This post just confirms my suspicions that I have never done it myself as setting my own line is not the first but the last step of what I do. Looking forward to more replies hoping to get a glimpse of that mysterious process.

Try not looking at ANY lines while you make your first study of the game and set your own line. Thats important because seeing another line influences your opinion.

One key to capping is finding lines that may be fair for the books and public but in reality are off.

Then you throw out the games that your lines match the bookmakers line. There is no value in those games.

Then disect the games where you came up with a different line and catch what you overlooked but the books didnt.

Hopefully by now you have a list with just a couple of games. Put those through the wringer again until you get one or two plays.

[pico]

The best first step to capping a game is setting your own line. Do not look at the opening line! Do a little research and set a line. Then compare your line to the market line. Do some more research to explain the difference.

Another tip is be ready to pass on all games. Dont force a bet on a coin flip game because you need action. You dont need action you need winners. The juice will slowly eat you if you are betting coin flips.

Other tips?

i am an action junkie

[Data]

Diana Troy forgot to mention it?

Dark Horse, that is Donna, Diana's sister. Anyhow, I could not make a connection with the topic.