[mofome]

Obama and huck are projected to win Iowa. anyone offering odds and these things?

[BigBollocks]

Took Huckabee at 6-1 to win the Republican nomination. I think he sweeps the South, takes most of the Midwest, and takes a few Southwestern states as well as places in the Northwest like Wyoming, Montana, Alaska, etc. Still think Hillary wins the Democratic nomination rather easily.

I'm not discussing who I personally like, but I do objectively believe you'll see a Huckabee/Hillary general election, with an outside chance of Huckabee winning the whole enchalada. GL...

[CHALKbreaker]

I bet Edwards to win the democratic nomination at +1320. I just think it s a huge value at that price, as he may very well be the one left standing if Hillary goes negative to try and stop the Obama surge.

Republicans are a total crap shoot. Romney seems logical as he'll have a lot of momentum with his 2nd in iowa, and will most likely win NH, and Michigan will also be strong for him (MI moved UP their primary) as his father was Governor there.

[dizzyd]

Got Obama +225 to win the Dem side at thegreek just a few days back. If he can win New Hampshire which he is neck-and-neck with Hillary he will be the favorite to get the nom IMO.
Huckabee doesn't have much of a shot in my opinion to win the Republican side. He will have a tough time getting votes in New Hampshire and will lose his momentum. From watching the coverage on CNN all night you can tell alot of the Republicans don't want him to win becuase they don't think he has any chance at all in the general election. At one point weeks back Hillary said something negative about Huckabee and "her people" told her to back off b/c thats the #1 person the Dems want to face.
Huckabee's win helped out McCain and Guliani out alot though and pretty much burried Romeny I think.

[dizzyd]

I bet Edwards to win the democratic nomination at +1320. I just think it s a huge value at that price, as he may very well be the one left standing if Hillary goes negative to try and stop the Obama surge.

Republicans are a total crap shoot. Romney seems logical as he'll have a lot of momentum with his 2nd in iowa, and will most likely win NH, and Michigan will also be strong for him (MI moved UP their primary) as his father was Governor there.

Edwards was a pretty good value bet but he really needed Iowa to go his way. He will slowly lose support/votes and is pretty much done. I hope if Obama wins he chooses him to be his VP though.

[CHALKbreaker]

Edwards was a pretty good value bet but he really needed Iowa to go his way. He will slowly lose support/votes and is pretty much done. I hope if Obama wins he chooses him to be his VP though.

It was just a long shot play, that I figure is worth it. His chances are better then 13/1 IMO. He finished 2nd tonight, and he was a DISTANT 3rd a month ago. Long way to go. He's not real likely, and why he is 13/1, but he's not impossible either.

[SBR Lou]

Republicans to win Presidency is a good bet.

[CHALKbreaker]

Republicans to win Presidency is a good bet.

I played that at +160, NOT because I think it's a great play, but because AT WORSE you will be able to hedge out and lock in profit at some point during the campaign. After the Republican convention you'll get the normal poll surge, and you cane bet the Democrats at a nice (+) number and lock in profit.


It's really easy to make $$$ betting politics, because they make the mistake of over adjusting the odds on the polls.

[mofome]

I played that at +160, NOT because I think it's a great play, but because AT WORSE you will be able to hedge out and lock in profit at some point during the campaign. After the Republican convention you'll get the normal poll surge, and you cane bet the Democrats at a nice (+) number and lock in profit.


It's really easy to make $$$ betting politics, because they make the mistake of over adjusting the odds on the polls.

chalk, you're on point with the live lines and hedges.

[CHALKbreaker]

I love live odds Mo.
Its not as easy in sports; as not every game is playable. Tonight was a good in-game to bet, because of the way it started off. Getting VT at over +200 after that start is a great bet, because the panic bettors all flock over to KU.

Almost all games turn momentum at some point. You just have to be confident that it will. When it does you just hedge out and lock in profit. I got KU at +212 a while ago when VT was driving down the field there, so I'm locked in now for sure profit (I still have VT -3 though at other outlets).


In game betting is fun, it just takes a lot of time and patience. Lot of times there is never even a play.

[pico]

Republicans to win Presidency is a good bet.

yeah, i want the rep to win also. stop those illegal immigrants there is one problem though, who will cut my lawn and take clean my house?

[CHALKbreaker]

Another reason politics is GREAT betting is because so many are HARD LINE Republicans or Democrats, and their view of things is often clouded. You talk to a hard line Democrat they all tell you there is no way they loose with Bush being so awful in the polls. The Republicans will say they win easy as none of the Democrats have any experience, congress has horrible approval #'s, ext.


I personally hate both parties. I'm a Libertarian; if anything. It makes GREAT plays betting though if you have a neutral perspective, as they base all these odds off the most recent poll, and polls change like the wind. You just have to be ahead of the curve.

[Bill Dozer]

They are saying this is a huge loss for Romney considering all the cash he spent leading up to Iowa. Edwards is hurting too spending a lot of time there and has no coin left.

[BuddyBear]

Republicans to win Presidency is a good bet.

Well, not really. The two strongest predictors of who is going to win the presidential election are: popularity of incumbent president and current economic conditions in the country.

1) Popularity of incumbent president: very low right now and not getting better anytime soon....

2) Economic outlook in the next year: not very good right now...gas prices out of control, housing market in a slump, wages stagnent, etc....

If you can bet Democrat to win the election at anything less than -130 it is a good bet IMO. Based on past strong performences of political and economic models (c.f. 2004 presidential election) you have to believe the DEM is going to win it.

However, one caveat, should Clinton or Obama win the DEM nomiation, certain peripherial factors of those candidates could become more salient features of the campaign that could throw things off a bit.

If Edwards got the nomination, I would make him a very strong favorite over any of the Republican nominnees. In fact, any of the three major DEM nominees who get the nomination in any scenario would be a favorite over any of the REP nominees.

[CHALKbreaker]

Like I said above playing the Republicans NOW, is more of a hedge play. Trust me when i say you will get a + number on whoever the Democrat is at some point during the campaign, and you just hedge out and lock in profit.

Bush is sitting at a horrific 33% or so for approval. However; on the same token the Democratic congress has about 20% approval. So basically people are just fed up with both parties. I think if Obama wins he has a great chance to win over independent voters, and win the general election. If Hillary wins; all the signs would say she'd loose the general election as 48% polled say they would NEVER vote for her under any circumstance, which is unheard of...I agree that Edwards would be tough for any of Republicans to beat, but he has a long way to catch up to Obama and Clinton.

[CHALKbreaker]

They are saying this is a huge loss for Romney considering all the cash he spent leading up to Iowa. Edwards is hurting too spending a lot of time there and has no coin left.

hmmm..I heard it a bit different. They said Edwards spent 1/6th of what Clinton spent. I know is war chest is much smaller then either Clinton or Edwards though. I think Edwards had to be happy with 2nd, as a month ago he was polling a distant 3rd, so he really made up a lot of ground.

Romney blew a lot, but he still made 2nd. i don't think he had any realistic chance of winning Iowa...if he blows NH, i agree, he'll be in big trouble.

Be interesting how Guliani fairs now. He wrote off Iowa, and is putting minimal effort in NH, in hopes he can take off on Super Tuesday. That strategy has never worked, but these primaries have never been this close together either.

[BuddyBear]

Trust me when i say you will get a + number on whoever the Democrat is at some point during the campaign, and you just hedge out and lock in profit.

Sorry, but there is no chance any Democratic presidential candidate is going to be + money against any Republican candidate unless it is like Dennis Kucinch or someone like that. There is just way too many strong predictors for the Democrats to win the general election this year. I don't think the sharps will let the Democrats fall below -120 to win the election.....

Bush is sitting at a horrific 33% or so for approval. However; on the same token the Democratic congress has about 20% approval. So basically people are just fed up with both parties.

How the Congress is doing is pretty irrelevant in figuring out the presidential election winner. In reality, the sitting president's popularity rating is one of the two strongest predictors of predicting the winner of the election. As long as Bush is in the low 30s, it is going to be very very difficult for any Republican candidate to emerge a winner...couple that with the sagging economy, it's the Democrats election to lose.

I think if Obama wins he has a great chance to win over independent voters, and win the general election. If Hillary wins; all the signs would say she'd loose the general election as 48% polled say they would NEVER vote for her under any circumstance, which is unheard of...I agree that Edwards would be tough for any of Republicans to beat, but he has a long way to catch up to Obama and Clinton.

I think whoever wins the Democratic nomination has a very good shot at winning over the Independent voters. Most IV break in the same direction. Right now, their is growing dissatistifaction with the Republican party. As long as that sentiment exists, there is a very good shot that a Democrat is going to win the election regardless of the candidate. That is why I don't think you'll see the DEM be the dog in this race.

[CHALKbreaker]

BB: We totally disagree then. I use to work as a political strategist, and these things change like the wind once you get into the heart of campaign's come summer. Most who are not die hard into politics are not even following this thing yet. The Republicans ALWAYS get a huge boost after their convention, and I will stand by my very strong belief that you'll get the Democrat at a (+) figure most likely right after the Rep convention.


We can pull this thread back up in about 6-7 months, but I use to work as a polling strategist when I was in college, and know how volatile polling #'s can be, especially during a heated campaign. One which has YET to even begin.

[isetcap]

As BB pointed out, Democratic strategists need to start doing whatever is necessary to make sure that John Edwards receives the nomination. It has already been discussed at length the tragic flaws that both Clinton and Obama carry into a general election. What has not been focused on is the tragic flaw that the Democratic Party keeps making in that it does not seem to understand that it needs to win Electoral votes as opposed to Popular votes.

Clinton delivers New York...so what, a monkey can deliver New York for the Dems. Obama delivers Illinois...so what, a clown can deliver Illinois for the Dems. A speck of dust could receive the Democratic nomination and California would go to the Dems.

John Edwards is an educated, white, southern boy with presidential charisma who can deliver states that have been red in the past 2 elections and the state of the nation will deliver the other Democratic mainstays. If the Democrats remain stubborn and insist on nominating someone that will have no appeal to southern states, then they will likely win the popular vote again and lose the presidency again.

We'll see if the lesson has been learned. If you want to vote Democrat and haven't learned the lessson yet, take a look at this...

Once you've learned that one, then take a look at the reason Democratic strategists should be dreaming in pink...

[CHALKbreaker]

Isetcap
EXCELLENT POST.
The way it sounds you are a Democrat, which is fine. I think, you are one of the FEW Democrats who GETS IT. Every Democrat I talk to just thinks WHOEVER wins the nomination will win the Presidency. That is SO FAR far clouded, and just shows their lack of understanding of the process. And also just why they keep on loosing major national races (outside of the last one in 2006).


Hillary is the Republicans DREAM. Look at the internal polls...48% polled (by reputable agencies..Zogby, Rassmussen) say they would NEVER vote for Hillary under ANY circumstance. That means no matter what Republican you put up against her they only need to win 2% of the undecideds, and like you pointed out, what states does she deliver outside the states that they always win?


Edwards is far and away the best chance to win a national race. He puts the south in play which is a Republican strong hold. Also the worse case scenario for the Dems is Ruby winning the nomination, because then NY really comes into play...It's all about the electoral college, as you pointed out!

[mavs1978]

yes.. i love mccain to win the rep nomination.. ive been buying lots of contracts on him

[mofome]

Isetcap
EXCELLENT POST.
The way it sounds you are a Democrat, which is fine. I think, you are one of the FEW Democrats who GETS IT. Every Democrat I talk to just thinks WHOEVER wins the nomination will win the Presidency. That is SO FAR far clouded, and just shows their lack of understanding of the process. And also just why they keep on loosing major national races (outside of the last one in 2006).


Hillary is the Republicans DREAM. Look at the internal polls...48% polled (by reputable agencies..Zogby, Rassmussen) say they would NEVER vote for Hillary under ANY circumstance. That means no matter what Republican you put up against her they only need to win 2% of the undecideds, and like you pointed out, what states does she deliver outside the states that they always win?


Edwards is far and away the best chance to win a national race. He puts the south in play which is a Republican strong hold. Also the worse case scenario for the Dems is Ruby winning the nomination, because then NY really comes into play...It's all about the electoral college, as you pointed out!

edwards is the least liked by dems i know. he is an awful candidate. mike huckabee is the man i hope represents the rep party.

[CHALKbreaker]

Mo: I agree..I don't like Edwards, and not shilling for him. Ron Paul is my man, and he basically has no shot either.

Edwards just has the best shot of the Democratic candidates to win a NATIONAL race. Actually Richardson would too, but he has no shot at all to win the primaries.

Huckabee will get momentum from Iowa, but I doubt he will be the nominee. To many of conservative groups don't like him, and you normally need those voters to win the rep nomination.

[mofome]

Mo: I agree..I don't like Edwards, and not shilling for him. Ron Paul is my man, and he basically has no shot either.

Edwards just has the best shot of the Democratic candidates to win a NATIONAL race. Actually Richardson would too, but he has no shot at all to win the primaries.

Huckabee will get momentum from Iowa, but I doubt he will be the nominee. To many of conservative groups don't like him, and you normally need those voters to win the rep nomination.

Politics and religion should be separate, but huck won iowa, in large part, on religion.