[mofome]

when a ml is offered, take it, no need to fukk with the points. the skins are playing with a passion that no other team can emulate. seattle will be fired up and ready to play, but it would be impossible to match the intensity that the skins will bring. you cant fake passion, its either there or it isnt. different things evoke different kinds and different levels of passion....the death of Sean Taylor has possessed this team over the last few weeks. Portis and Moss are talking about how they thought they used to 'play hard'...but now they shake their head at that notion. i know seattle is a tough place to play, but i dont think it will be much of an advantage this weekend, if any. The skins dont need the 'comfort' of being home....they're intense and they'll crave coming out in someone elses house and pushing them around a bit.


skins ml is the play on Saturday. imo.

[Dark Horse]

Careful. They beat the Giants in a game with crazy wind (could have easily gone the other way if the Giants didn't drop every Manning pass), and the Cowboys in a meaningless game to Dallas. That doesn't tell me a whole lot about Collins at QB. It's tempting to see them as a team of destiny with #21 watching, but I'm not a believer yet. The early score prop looks good to me.

[BigBollocks]

I'm on Washington + the points. GL to us Mofo...

[mofome]

Careful. They beat the Giants in a game with crazy wind (could have easily gone the other way if the Giants didn't drop every Manning pass), and the Cowboys in a meaningless game to Dallas. That doesn't tell me a whole lot about Collins at QB. It's tempting to see them as a team of destiny with #21 watching, but I'm not a believer yet. The early score prop looks good to me.

not sure what you mean about the giants game, sure the giants dropped some passes, but the skins smashed them. there was no way the skins were going to lose that game unless something ridiculous happened. moss dropped a 55 yard pass....you just dont pay as much attention when the team wins. that team went into nj and smashed the giants. they smashed dallas' starters. i realize the cicumstances of the game, but romo wasnt coming off on the sidelines throwing things for no reason....there were plenty of teams that didnt have anything to play for that had good games....dallas got rocked. minn got smashed, at home, by the skins as well.
im 100% confident in this selection.

bol to you, DH! i hope the playoffs treat ya well.

[mofome]

I'm on Washington + the points. GL to us Mofo...

[Dark Horse]

The Giants almost broke the NFL record for incompletions in that game. Games controlled by extreme weather conditions don't count as representative in my book.

My point is not that the Skins can't win the game, but that, based on their last two games, they are overrated.

[mofome]

The Giants almost broke the NFL record for incompletions in that game. Games controlled by extreme weather conditions don't count as representative in my book.

My point is not that the Skins can't win the game, but that, based on their last two games, they are overrated.

the skins played in the same conditions. the only real good thing about the gmen is their ability to get after the qb, the skins oline smashed their dline. absolutely dominated them. from someone who follows the skins closely, i believe i have a great feel for the state of this team. but as we know....we're all wrong sometimes.


you are def right, the gmen may have set a record for drops, hell, jacobs may have set that record on his own.

[Dark Horse]

They did beat the Vikings in between those games. I forgot about that one.

[SBR Lou]

They did beat the Vikings in between those games. I forgot about that one.

I certainly didn't, Minnesota really did a number on me to close the regular season.

That being said, I'm with you guys on Washington. Something that's a little overdone but worries me is just how loud Qwest Field is. This stadium is Bill Polian's wet dream, no piping in artificial sound necessary.

Riding the Todd Collins bandwagon though. We'll see where it gets me.

[mofome]

I certainly didn't, Minnesota really did a number on me to close the regular season.

That being said, I'm with you guys on Washington. Something that's a little overdone but worries me is just how loud Qwest Field is. This stadium is Bill Polian's wet dream, no piping in artificial sound necessary.

Riding the Todd Collins bandwagon though. We'll see where it gets me.

minn is supposed to be the loudest stadium in the league, and the skins played decently there in a game minn had to have. my uncle coaches with the vikes and he said the place was pretty wild.

glad to be on your side here, crazyl.

[SBR Lou]

minn is supposed to be the loudest stadium in the league, and the skins played decently there in a game minn had to have. my uncle coaches with the vikes and he said the place was pretty wild.

glad to be on your side here, crazyl.

Yeah, I've never been to the Metrodome. Got a bud who is a diehard Vikings fan that goes every year, might tag along eventually and check out the Mall of America.

Would like to start the playoffs on a good note, so hope we can take this down.

[mofome]

Yeah, I've never been to the Metrodome. Got a bud who is a diehard Vikings fan that goes every year, might tag along eventually and check out the Mall of America.

Would like to start the playoffs on a good note, so hope we can take this down.

if my uncle is still there, and we can all get up there the same weekend, the tickets and the place to stay are on me.

[jakethompson]

Bet if offshore already and with a friend. Skins' ML is the best bet of the week IMO. Seattle is about as overrated as a team can get.

Just sayin hey mo. Oklahoma/WVU Under is a great bet tonight.

[5 star bomb]

Bet if offshore already and with a friend. Skins' ML is the best bet of the week IMO. Seattle is about as overrated as a team can get.

Just sayin hey mo. Oklahoma/WVU Under is a great bet tonight.

Why do you like the Under Jake? I like the over a little bit and WVU plus the points... As for the Skins/Seahawks game I agree with you guys the Skins ML is the bet for this wknd. I am nervous about Kerney getting to Collins though

[mofome]

Bet if offshore already and with a friend. Skins' ML is the best bet of the week IMO. Seattle is about as overrated as a team can get.

Just sayin hey mo. Oklahoma/WVU Under is a great bet tonight.

jakethompson!!!




under tonight huh? i will check that out.

[mofome]

Why do you like the Under Jake? I like the over a little bit and WVU plus the points... As for the Skins/Seahawks game I agree with you guys the Skins ML is the bet for this wknd. I am nervous about Kerney getting to Collins though

Osi, tuck, and Strahan didnt come close, have no fears.

[jakethompson]

Why do you like the Under Jake? I like the over a little bit and WVU plus the points... As for the Skins/Seahawks game I agree with you guys the Skins ML is the bet for this wknd. I am nervous about Kerney getting to Collins though

Here's the little writeup I did... PS, for what it's worth, I've been hitting at nearly a 65% clip the last few years with my 2-unit plays in college football. It's as big of a bet as I go.

Line should be: Oklahoma -11, O/U 45
Line is: Oklahoma -7.5, O/U 61.5

Bet: Oklahoma/West Virginia Under 61.5 -110
2 Unit Play

WVU can't score without their run and Oklahoma has the horses up front and the team speed on D to hold WVU to 20 points or less. WVU is good at stopping the run as well but Oklahoma has a very nice passing game but still has shown it has some issues scoring with a limited run. Not nearly as bad as WVU, but they have some issues getting over 30 points against top run-stuffing teams.

[mofome]

Here's the little writeup I did... PS, for what it's worth, I've been hitting at nearly a 65% clip the last few years with my 2-unit plays in college football. It's as big of a bet as I go.

Line should be: Oklahoma -11, O/U 45
Line is: Oklahoma -7.5, O/U 61.5

Bet: Oklahoma/West Virginia Under 61.5 -110
2 Unit Play

WVU can't score without their run and Oklahoma has the horses up front and the team speed on D to hold WVU to 20 points or less. WVU is good at stopping the run as well but Oklahoma has a very nice passing game but still has shown it has some issues scoring with a limited run. Not nearly as bad as WVU, but they have some issues getting over 30 points against top run-stuffing teams.

65%



thanks for the play Jake.

[jakethompson]

While we are talking about it, Kansas/Vtech is a nice under for tomorrow as well but not as strong as this one.

[jjgold]

Skins kicked the crap out of Dallas and if they play again in playoffs would do it again. Wash playing a controlled game so hard to blow them out. I think the are the play here and plus their record would be much better minus the fluke loses.

[mofome]

Skins kicked the crap out of Dallas and if they play again in playoffs would do it again. Wash playing a controlled game so hard to blow them out. I think the are the play here and plus their record would be much better minus the fluke loses.

the only time the skins really got beat was in NE. they could have easily won 12/13 games, but they kept fukkin themselves up. no team can macth the intensity they will bring, thats big b/w teams that are relatively even in terms of talent. hass, hacket, and branch are banged up...i dont think they'll get healthy vs the skins. i just hope gregg williams doesnt play his stupid lay back defense that has cost us a couple times.

[5 star bomb]

the only time the skins really got beat was in NE. they could have easily won 12/13 games, but they kept fukkin themselves up. no team can macth the intensity they will bring, thats big b/w teams that are relatively even in terms of talent. hass, hacket, and branch are banged up...i dont think they'll get healthy vs the skins. i just hope gregg williams doesnt play his stupid lay back defense that has cost us a couple times.

I hate how he has Landry playing so far from the line of scrimmage. That kid can bring the wood, he should be used closer to the line of scrimmage in running situations

[mofome]

I hate how he has Landry playing so far from the line of scrimmage. That kid can bring the wood, he should be used closer to the line of scrimmage in running situations

williams has said that landry could be the best run stuffing S in the league....not sure why he doesnt use him up there a bit more. the skins have been more aggresive in recent weeks, i just hope that they continue with the pressure.

[Arnold]

Some quick facts here...

Since '92, playoff home favorites of -3 to -4 points are 17-12 ATS, and 8-2 ATS when they are favored by -3.5.

Seattle is 7-1 SU at home this season and 6-2 ATS, while only 3-5 SU/ATS on the road. They outscored their opponents by 13.2 pts at home (on the road they are outscored by 0.5).

I don't think it's a good idea to bet on Redskins, especially ML. Try the Giants maybe, if you want a road underdog. That game will be much closer. I say Seattle wins it 27-17.

[mofome]

Some quick facts here...

Since '92, playoff home favorites of -3 to -4 points are 17-12 ATS, and 8-2 ATS when they are favored by -3.5.

Seattle is 7-1 SU at home this season and 6-2 ATS, while only 3-5 SU/ATS on the road. They outscored their opponents by 13.2 pts at home (on the road they are outscored by 0.5).

I don't think it's a good idea to bet on Redskins, especially ML. Try the Giants maybe, if you want a road underdog. That game will be much closer. I say Seattle wins it 27-17.

great stuff! bol to you. the skins are my top play, so there is no talking me off of them, but u may save someone thats not as hard headed!

[2Pac]

Where do you live again, mofome?

DC?

No bias at all in your pick!

[mofome]

Where do you live again, mofome?

DC?

No bias at all in your pick!

is there a reason everything you have to say is negative? there was plenty of value in the skins ml over nyg, and minn.

[astro61200]

If you like Washington to cover, should probably just take the ML... I forget the exact number, but its something like if you pick the correct winning side, they cover 75 or 80% of the time

[mofome]

If you like Washington to cover, should probably just take the ML... I forget the exact number, but its something like if you pick the correct winning side, they cover 75 or 80% of the time

agreed, thats exactly what i recommended in the original post.

[Arnold]

If you like Washington to cover, should probably just take the ML... I forget the exact number, but its something like if you pick the correct winning side, they cover 75 or 80% of the time

That's when home favorite wins SU, they cover about 75% of the time (in playoffs). So, you have about a 25% chance of Redskins covering if Seattle wins. Playoff home favorites won about 72.5% SU (since 92). So, that means the Redskins have about a 45.6% chance of covering the spread (100 - 72.5 * .75 = 45.6%). How is it that they have a value on ML with a 27.5% SU win expectancy, given a +185 line (35.1% to break-even)? Seattle needs only 66.7% to break-even SU.

And if we look only at games with a pointspread from -3 to -4, then home favorites covered 85% of the time (when they won SU) and won 71.9% SU. I'm not gonna do the math again, but things get even worse now.

[MBENZ]

Been a good run Mo,but the train stops here.Skins fan for many moons but I like money more

[mofome]

Been a good run Mo,but the train stops here.Skins fan for many moons but I like money more

you're a fav of mine and i hate to be against ya, but im gonna be on ya for losing money vs your team on sat!

[ShamsWoof10]

I would not dispute this too much... The Skins can certainly do it... I am impressed with their play on both sides of the ball...

I do not pay attention to things like: "They are fired up" "They have nothing to play for" or "It's a let down"... Those are media words... When you take the field and get one helmet in your as* you wake up and why you're playing is out the window...

It's almost like your brain goes into survival mode because if you don't play hard you WILL get hurt and maybe hurt bad..

You don't have to tell pros this...they know!