[mofome]

im taking a look at some c mich tonight and some ball state over rutgers. anyone feel like they've got some good info or a good feel on some bowl upsets we'll see? i want to play the terps over ore state, but that may be more of a home town kinda thing. i love CRF with a month to prepare, but oregon state is an underrated team imo.

[HedgeHog]

Over the past 10 bowl seasons, taking dogs of 7 points and more (prior to Jan games) is 41-13 ATS--including 3-0 this year. This supports taking C Mich today.

[jjgold]

Illinois over USC

[Tchocky]

Hawaii +260 over Georgia.

[mofome]

Illinois over USC

any reason or just a feeling? i only ask because USC is one of my fav plays remaining.

[mofome]

Over the past 10 bowl seasons, taking dogs of 7 points and more (prior to Jan games) is 41-13 ATS--including 3-0 this year. This supports taking C Mich today.

[SBR_John]

That last game. LSU is not a big fav but I like this match up for OSU. The big head of OSU from last year is gone and now they play the role of underdog. LSU's offense is as predictable as it comes and the OSU defense is very good. Its risky going with big 10 over sec but this is a good setup imo.

[2Pac]

I really like CMich tonight. It's a home game for them, and they are used to playing in that stadium --- this will be the 3rd game in a row at Ford Field if I'm not mistaken. At least the 2nd in a row.

[rjt721]

Hawaii +260 over Georgia.

Bingo.

[onlooker]

Hawaii over Georgia
Kansas over Virginia Tech
Ohio State over LSU

[mofome]

Hawaii over Georgia
Kansas over Virginia Tech
Ohio State over LSU

if you're 3-0 here, i'll be in the poor house by the middle of jan.




do you just like these spots or do you believe that the better team is the dog in some of these?

[mofome]

I really like Central Michigan here. I know they got blown out earlier this season but i feel they have improved. I also feel they are playing a home game against a team they want revenge for. As for Ohio States Suckeyes I feel they have NO chance. They played ONE good spread offense this year(illinois) and lost AT the shoe. LSU has two or three times the talent and even more "team" speed.

i agree with all of this. i think the sec will take it to osu again. i dont think lsu is all that good, but osu isnt either. last year florida players said that osu was the 5th or 6th best team they faced in all year.....im sure thats not the truth, but it may not be far from it.

[SBR_John]

I want to like LSU but it just doesnt add up. They looked great in spots thats for darn sure like the Va Tech game which was slightly before the hookies hit their stride. The Fl game. Then there games like Tulane and Kentucky and even South Car they needed a miracle. I'll take the 6 and the fairly consistant suckeyes in this one.

[rjt721]

I want to like LSU but it just doesnt add up. They looked great in spots thats for darn sure like the Va Tech game which was slightly before the hookies hit their stride. The Fl game. Then there games like Tulane and Kentucky and even South Car they needed a miracle. I'll take the 6 and the fairly consistant suckeyes in this one.

Miracle? LSU dominated So. Carolina throughout, only to have SC score twice late in the 4th for the backdoor cover. How's a 28-16 W a miracle?

The Tulane game was nothing more than a vastly superior team playing an uninspired first half before turning it on in the second half against an overmatched opponent.

Where are you getting the 6 with OSU? 4.5 is the best number currently available.

[guitarjosh]

any reason or just a feeling? i only ask because USC is one of my fav plays remaining.

I saw today that USC is having trouble getting excited for the game. And USC usually has trouble with running QBs.

[jackpot269]

if you're 3-0 here, i'll be in the poor house by the middle of jan.




do you just like these spots or do you believe that the better team is the dog in some of these?

Hawaii over Georgia
Kansas over Virginia Tech
im against onlooker on both of these. Probably play both big, so mo, i guess its me & you on these i sure hope you stay out of the poor house because im tring to play myself out & these are two of my favorite plays.I Only like a few of the favorites this bowl season & i like both of these!!!

[mofome]

Hawaii over Georgia
Kansas over Virginia Tech
im against onlooker on both of these. Probably play both big, so mo, i guess its me & you on these i sure hope you stay out of the poor house because im tring to play myself out & these are two of my favorite plays.I Only like a few of the favorites this bowl season & i like both of these!!!

i love uga and vt as well. i played vt early at -3 and im waiting on uga hoping to get 7, but 7.5 is fine. i hate to be 'square', but i think we'll see some ass kickings on new years.
usc
uga
fla
and LSU in the title game i like to cover as well. giving a team thats that talented, that much time to get ready, and this much motivation reminds me of the obvious. fla last year. hell, fla made a joke of osu and i bet most people here played osu and just dont recall saying things like 'mich and osu are the two best teams in the nation'.

[onlooker]

if you're 3-0 here, i'll be in the poor house by the middle of jan.




do you just like these spots or do you believe that the better team is the dog in some of these?

Let me just say I will be happy to go 2-1, because I will be on the ML of those.

[mofome]

Let me just say I will be happy to go 2-1, because I will be on the ML of those.

hell, if your one win is hawaii, you're straight with that alone. i believe that hawaii will get rocked, but i also really hope they get smashed, which could be playing a part in my beliefs. hard to separate the two at times.

[Razz]

Michigan will beat Florida. Also think two touchdowns is waaay too many points to be giving an Illinois team that is USC's equal or superior in almost every aspect of the game. I don't think they'll actually win, but it wouldn't surprise me, especially since it figures to be a low-scoring, physical game.

[mofome]

Michigan will beat Florida. Also think two touchdowns is waaay too many points to be giving an Illinois team that is USC's equal or superior in almost every aspect of the game. I don't think they'll actually win, but it wouldn't surprise me, especially since it figures to be a low-scoring, physical game.

1) what makes you think michigan will win? certainly they could, i am just interested in why you think they will. mich hasnt had much luck defending the spread, im not sure that they have the speed to get much done. we'll see.
2) illinois is equal or superior in what? mendenhall is probably the only player on the illinois roster that would start for USC. Vontae davis may as well, but im pretty sure thats it. if usc really wants to win, they should outclass illinois in every phase of the game. imo.

[rjt721]

Michigan will beat Florida.

Interesting. I think UM needs to score on virtually every possession to win this game, as I can't see them holding Tebow & co. under 40. Henne and Hart are apparently healthy, and the team would like nothing more than to send Carr off with a win, but I'd be surprised if the defense forced UF to punt more than once in this game. UM's defense played quite well down the stretch, but UF's offense presents the worst match up imaginable. My first inclination when this game was announced was Gators by 3 scores, and although I've changed my tune a bit, largely because UF's defense will keep UM in the game, the Wolverines' offense needs to play flawlessly for an outright win.

I'll be passing on a side and hitting the over pretty heavy.

[Razz]

1) what makes you think michigan will win? certainly they could, i am just interested in why you think they will. mich hasnt had much luck defending the spread, im not sure that they have the speed to get much done. we'll see.

For all the talk about Michigan's inability to stop anyone, the Florida defense is worse. For my money, the Gators have played four teams with balanced offenses (five if you count Troy, who scored 31). Those teams scored 28, 45, 42, and 31 points against Florida.

And as we're seeing tonight, teams that lose to their rivals in the last game of the year and are playing a team that beat a rival in the last game of the year are almost always a good bet. Add in the Heisman fade and Carr situation, and I just don't see how Michigan isn't the much more motivated team.

And the Florida spread offense isn't like the Appy State or Oregon offense - those are more West Coast type offenses, and featured QBs who could take it the house any play. Tebow is more of a grind it out type runner, and there's no Jonathon Stewart behind him.

Don't get me wrong, Michigan's defense will have problems, but the offense will exploit the horrendous Florida secondary, and eventually Hart will start controlling the game. I think it's something like 38-28 Michigan.

2) illinois is equal or superior in what? mendenhall is probably the only player on the illinois roster that would start for USC. Vontae davis may as well, but im pretty sure thats it. if usc really wants to win, they should outclass illinois in every phase of the game. imo.

Well, the best offensive player on the field is Arrelious Benn and the best defensive player on the field is J Leman. Both of those players wear orange and blue.

Illinois has a top ten defense (SC's is better, but not by that much), and the better running game and special teams. If Juice can handle the atmosphere and the national stage, Illinois can easily win this game.

Don't get me wrong, SC is more talented across the board, and the depth certainly favors them as well. But the talent gap isn't indicative of the point spread, and I think it's quite clear that the Illini will be the hungrier team in this game.

Just remember that Illinois has played two top ten teams this year (SC has played none. It's best win was against an Arizona State team who is getting pounded by a mediocre Texas team). The Illini deserved to beat Missouri, but Juice was hurt and McGee turned it over five times (still only lost by 6), and they obviously beat Ohio State. But the kicker is that both those were away from home. That tells me that Illinois, despite the lack of experience, can handle the Rose Bowl.