[5 star bomb]

NL

West = Dbax

Central = Cubs

East = Mets

WC = Phillies


AL

West = Angels

Central = Tigers

East = Red Sox

WC = Indians


World Series = Cubs vs Tigers.... Cubs in 7

[Yung Mula]

Yankees get pitching and re-live the dynasty.

[mofome]

NL

West = Dbax

Central = Cubs

East = Mets

WC = Phillies


AL

West = Angels

Central = Tigers

East = Red Sox

WC = Indians


World Series = Cubs vs Tigers.... Cubs in 7

cubs in 7??

[Thremp]

This thread is horrible. Is this a "I wish this would happen" or a "This is most likely to happen"? Cause the first is lollercoaster bad.

I like how you have the best team in baseball missing the playoffs. And a .500 team winning the NL West.

[5 star bomb]

cubs in 7??

hell ya homie!! FUK U DOME!!!!!!

[SBR Lou]

I think this is the Yankees year.

They will play better in the playoffs and have a good shot.

[5 star bomb]

This thread is horrible. Is this a "I wish this would happen" or a "This is most likely to happen"? Cause the first is lollercoaster bad.

I like how you have the best team in baseball missing the playoffs. And a .500 team winning the NL West.

These are my predictions bro. You saying the dbax is a bad choice is just comical, they just picked up Dan Haren who is going to be a huge addition to the staff... Stay here a while I can educate you some more if you would like

[mofome]

This thread is horrible. Is this a "I wish this would happen" or a "This is most likely to happen"? Cause the first is lollercoaster bad.

I like how you have the best team in baseball missing the playoffs. And a .500 team winning the NL West.

the best team in baseball missing the playoffs? how so? i would assume that the red sox are the best team in baseball, i believe he has them winning the east. maybe literacy isnt your thing?


whos the .500 team winning the west? the dbacks? what makes them .500? i dont think 5 star was talking about a team in your softball league, he was talking about the MLB team from Arizona, the one that won 90 games last year.

no worries, knowledge can be a burden, carry on without it and enjoy your holidays.

[Thremp]

mofome,

LOL @ you. Zona is a 78 win team. Learn something about baseball.

5 star,

GL with your picks. I'm sure you are an expert at this. I'm gonna bow out of this thread before I have an aneurysm.

[mofome]

mofome,

LOL @ you. Zona is a 78 win team. Learn something about baseball.

5 star,

GL with your picks. I'm sure you are an expert at this. I'm gonna bow out of this thread before I have an aneurysm.

zona is a what? well, last year they scored more runs than the team they were playing 90 times. that makes them a 90 win team. learn something about baseball? cupcake, if i woke up with your IQ, id try to kill myself with a water gun.


btw, 78 wins wouldnt = .500
a 78 win mlb team would be at .481

[Thremp]

I can't resist. You have no concept of variance and clearly aren't familiar with third order wins. This is a very unfair fight. I said going forward (2008) they are a ~.500 win team. Maybe a couple either way. So I expect them to improve and the Haren signing to be a decent part of that.

You should really become more familiar with the topic before you fire off. W/L record is not very predictive or a good way to determine who'll be good in the future. You'd be much better off using a RS/RA model. You could even regress everyone back to .500 as an added benefit.

But whatev. You wanna talk sports. Thats whats important. Watching games. Knowing who's a winner and who's a loser. Picking winners... Its all about backing dominant pitchers and fading the chokers.

[5 star bomb]

cupcake, if i woke up with your IQ, id try to kill myself with a water gun.

[mofome]

I can't resist. You have no concept of variance and clearly aren't familiar with third order wins. This is a very unfair fight. I said going forward (2008) they are a ~.500 win team. Maybe a couple either way. So I expect them to improve and the Haren signing to be a decent part of that.

You should really become more familiar with the topic before you fire off. W/L record is not very predictive or a good way to determine who'll be good in the future. You'd be much better off using a RS/RA model. You could even regress everyone back to .500 as an added benefit.

But whatev. You wanna talk sports. Thats whats important. Watching games. Knowing who's a winner and who's a loser. Picking winners... Its all about backing dominant pitchers and fading the chokers.

couldnt resist what, being made a joke? really...if you want to get into talking baseball, i'll have a good time with ya. you say az will win 12 less games, but they made their mlb roster better this offseason. not to mention how young they were last year. do young players typically get worse or get better? rs/ra last year doesnt seem to have all that much to do with a team that just added an ace and your youth now has more experience. adding upton for an entire year is just another piece they didnt start last season with.
also take into consideration how weak their division is....sf is awful, there isnt much reason to believe col will be as good this year, what has sd done that impresses you? lad knock your socks off?


you said they are a .500 team, they are not. if you had suggest that you think they'll be a .500 team next year, maybe you'd have something? i didnt choose your words, you did.
also, 78 wins doesnt = .500
maybe it does if you take into consideration rs vs ra though?

so:
az is a 90 win team. az now has a better staff and more experience.

the best team in baseball is the red sox. 5 star has them in the playoffs

78 wins = .481

[mofome]

one of my best lines of all time. sometimes you're just in the zone. i couldnt wait to pull that sucker back out, the chance presented itself and i went with it. im playing with instinct tonight, 5 star.

[5 star bomb]

I can't resist. You have no concept of variance and clearly aren't familiar with third order wins. This is a very unfair fight. I said going forward (2008) they are a ~.500 win team. Maybe a couple either way. So I expect them to improve and the Haren signing to be a decent part of that.

You should really become more familiar with the topic before you fire off. W/L record is not very predictive or a good way to determine who'll be good in the future. You'd be much better off using a RS/RA model. You could even regress everyone back to .500 as an added benefit.

But whatev. You wanna talk sports. Thats whats important. Watching games. Knowing who's a winner and who's a loser. Picking winners... Its all about backing dominant pitchers and fading the chokers.

Stick around kid, I will teach you a thing or 2 about baseball. You gave me some good laughs last night at some of your baseball logic!

[donjuan]

5 star and Mofome,

You guys are embarrassing yourselves but it will be fun to watch you donk it up during baseball season. I can't wait for analysis that consists of ERA and RBIs. Come back to me when you have a clue what DIPS and PECOTA mean.

[5 star bomb]

5 star and Mofome,

You guys are embarrassing yourselves but it will be fun to watch you donk it up during baseball season. I can't wait for analysis that consists of ERA and RBIs. Come back to me when you have a clue what DIPS and PECOTA mean.

HAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHA


Well now I know you dont know shit either. Anyone who puts all of their stock into Pecota is just a flat out moron. Stick around though through time I will teach you a thing or 2 about the game of baseball

[donjuan]

You predict the best team in baseball to miss the playoffs. Could you be any more of a joke?

[5 star bomb]

You predict the best team in baseball to miss the playoffs. Could you be any more of a joke?

What are you talking about? I have the best team in baseball making the playoffs. I didnt leave out the Red Sox dumbass, I find it hilarious that you think the Yanks are the best team in baseball... just shows how much you really know

[donjuan]

How do you figure the Red Sox are the best team in baseball? Because they won the WS? LOL

[Thremp]

5 star,

I'm curious now. What do you use for projections ZIPs (not out fully), Marcel, Bill James, roto?

Otherwise how do you tell how teams are gonna do... watch them?

[mofome]

How do you figure the Red Sox are the best team in baseball? Because they won the WS? LOL

one would think that winning the world series would be a decent indicator. not to you though.

[donjuan]

Gotta love the results oriented thinking on here.

[mofome]

Gotta love the results oriented thinking on here.

why look at the facts when we could just read the stars?




calling the yanks the best team in baseball is laughable. laughs are good, thanks for your contributions.

[donjuan]

Yeah, don't mind those silly words like variance. It's just a word invented by stat geeks and it doesn't really exist.

[mofome]

Yeah, don't mind those silly words like variance. It's just a word invented by stat geeks and it doesn't really exist.

yeah, that variance probably called the marlins the best team in the league in 97 and 03.



hey, do you think that Giambi is worth 500K per base hit or is that just thremp?


im just looking to learn. why even watch the games when we could just look at last years stats to predict what will happen in 08.

[donjuan]

yeah, that variance probably called the marlins the best team in the league in 97 and 03.

Except, that they weren't actually the best team in the league, just the WS champs, much like the Red Sox weren't this year, although at least the Red Sox were the second best team.

im just looking to learn. why even watch the games when we could just look at last years stats to predict what will happen in 08.

I told you to get back to me once you understood what PECOTA was. You obviously still don't.

[mofome]

I can't resist. You have no concept of variance and clearly aren't familiar with third order wins. This is a very unfair fight. I said going forward (2008) they are a ~.500 win team. Maybe a couple either way. So I expect them to improve and the Haren signing to be a decent part of that.

You should really become more familiar with the topic before you fire off. W/L record is not very predictive or a good way to determine who'll be good in the future. You'd be much better off using a RS/RA model. You could even regress everyone back to .500 as an added benefit.

But whatev. You wanna talk sports. Thats whats important. Watching games. Knowing who's a winner and who's a loser. Picking winners... Its all about backing dominant pitchers and fading the chokers.

hey sport, in 2006 the red sox allowed more runs than they scored, but they won it all in 07. rs/ra from the previous year, ! boston really only won 78 games last year, F the stats, we've got variance.

[5 star bomb]

How do you figure the Red Sox are the best team in baseball? Because they won the WS? LOL

Please break down the Yankees pitching to the Red sox pitching and try convincing me that they are even close to the red sox... until then just shut up, your giving me a headache with your stupidity

[mofome]

Except, that they weren't actually the best team in the league, just the WS champs, much like the Red Sox weren't this year, although at least the Red Sox were the second best team.



I told you to get back to me once you understood what PECOTA was. You obviously still don't.

2nd best? how so? they won as many game as anyone in baseball, they won the world series, the al east had an overall better record than the al central making it the tougher division, and the sox allowed less runs than anyone in the game. boston was the best team in baseball last year. its not a question, its a fact. no one is asking you anything.

[mofome]

Please break down the Yankees pitching to the Red sox pitching and try convincing me that they are even close to the red sox... until then just shut up, your giving me a headache with your stupidity

its unfortunate that these people dont seem to understand that some teams are built for the post seasons. last year, boston happened to be better than anyone in the post season and the regular season. at least the yanks won what, one post season game? thats neat.

[Thremp]

mofome,

You don't understand baseball clearly. You don't understand the difference between predictive stats and ones that don't predict anything. This may help http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictive_analytics

You don't understand RS/RA.

You 500k per base hit comment is stupid as hell. Is Giambi puts up a .370+ EqA over 600 PAs his season will be worth ~30 mil. If anyone does it, their season will be worth that much. If a catcher put up those numbers he'd be lollercoaster valuable. (Esp since he's gonna be getting 600 PAs. E for effort :/)


You seem to be the king of straw men. You aren't even talking about what I said. You make up these fake arguments that are nonsensical. Are you here to bet sports? To learn about them? To won monies?

[donjuan]

5 star bomb,

I'm guessing you want it proven with stats like ERA?

Mofome,

All more results oriented garbage. Thanks for making me dumber by reading that.

[5 star bomb]

Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm....

If you put all your faith in that system I feel very sorry for your baseball knowledge

[5 star bomb]

5 star bomb,

I'm guessing you want it proven with stats like ERA?

Mofome,

All more results oriented garbage. Thanks for making me dumber by reading that.

No not just era. I evaluate by player personal and what the teams have done in the offseason to either improve or get worse. Pecota is a joke to rely on that for your projections I feel sorry for you guys... Maybe one day when you learn and watch as much baseball as I do you will be at my level until then carry on


.... mofo these guys are giving me a headache