[SBR_John]

I didnt until today. Been a cowpoke fan for 40 years but I just loaded up on the skins -7.5 over Dallas. Yes it could lose, this is gambling and even if the odds are stacked 66% in your favor that other 33% can be a real biatch.

I'll also say I love this time of year. I think the players have a slight advantage.

Also kudos to Bookmaker for opening those difficult NFL lines. After several hours now the others are still dark. No doubt watching Bookmaker for clues on where to open these games.

[durito]

Teams that have to win to make the playoffs are horrible bets ATS in week 16/17.

That angle works best when they are playing teams that have been eliminated from the playoffs though -- so I can't really say what will happen with Dallas locked into the #1 seed.

Nevertheless, it's a division game. I don't believe in things like game of the year, etc (how do you know you wont find a better pay tomorrow?) I also dont' think there are any NFL games that have a greater than 65% chance of covering -- and few if any even approach that #.

People love to bet on teams that are in a must win situation -- but if these eams could really win whenever they needed a win, they probably wouldn't be in a must win situation to begin with.

[SBR_John]

I dont think the angle here is betting on a team that must win. I think the angle here is that the Dallas starters will probably only play the 1st qtr. Couple that with the fact that the skins are playing their best right now and with Dallas looking ahead and you got quite a few stars aligned.

[pavyracer]

Dallas will crash Redskins. They don't want to have them in their way for the playoffs. The Dallas players hate Snyder and they will do their best to deny them post season. They will rather have Minnessota to beat in the playoffs.

[matskralc]

Originally Posted by SBR_John

Been a cowpoke fan for 40 years but I just loaded up on the skins -7.5 over Dallas.

I haven't been gambling long, but there is one hard, rock-solid, never-to-be-violated rule I have: never bet against my own team.

The second rule is "never bet on my own team", but I can bend that one.

The Redskins have two things going for them: FedEx Field and the Packers losing to the Bears yesterday to give the Cowboys the #1 seed. If the second one of those hadn't happened, the Redskins are probably 7 point dogs. I'm not sure that Romo, Owens, Barber, etc playing just one half is enough to swing a game 14 points.

Also, I'm a Cowboys fan.

[DrunkenLullaby]

Well, if it was the game of the century at -7.5, I can't imagine what it is at -7.

[Wassymac]

Played it at -7 and it moved straight to -8

Just missed it at -6.5

[mofome]

Originally Posted by matskralc

I haven't been gambling long, but there is one hard, rock-solid, never-to-be-violated rule I have: never bet against my own team.

The second rule is "never bet on my own team", but I can bend that one.

The Redskins have two things going for them: FedEx Field and the Packers losing to the Bears yesterday to give the Cowboys the #1 seed. If the second one of those hadn't happened, the Redskins are probably 7 point dogs. I'm not sure that Romo, Owens, Barber, etc playing just one half is enough to swing a game 14 points.

Also, I'm a Cowboys fan.

7 point dogs if gb had won?
there is zero chance the skins would be 7 point dogs, at home, vs dallas no matter what the boys had to play for. the skins could have easily won the game in dallas...the skins are playing great ball right now.

[matskralc]

Originally Posted by mofome

7 point dogs if gb had won?

The relevant point is that Green Bay's loss means Dallas's starters won't be playing much, if at all.

Line was 11 points in Dallas week 11. Cowboys gave 10.5 at Detroit back in week 14 when the Lions still had a sniff of a playoff chance. A Carolina team fighting for its playoff life was a 10.5 point dog at home. 7 point dog against a Cowboys team playing its starters the entire game might be something of an exaggeration, but not much.

[mofome]

Originally Posted by matskralc

The relevant point is that Green Bay's loss means Dallas's starters won't be playing much, if at all.

yes, i was able to crack that code.

[durito]

Well John, it's up at the Greek and Pinnacle now, and is up to 9/9.5 so you got a good number.

[Wassymac]

its moved 3 points in two hours at bookmaker

-6.5 to -9.5

[mofome]

Originally Posted by Wassymac

its moved 3 points in two hours at bookmaker

-6.5 to -9.5

big john lookin like hes on the right side for this century. i cant wait for the next one, im gonna get on johns side early.

[imgv94]

Damn would of loved Wash -6.5

My game of the century was LSU last season vs ND.. Don't think there ever will be another cinch like that one. Nonetheless GL with this.

[SBR_John]

I remember that well Img! I think the whole forum was pulling for you and wasnt it quickly ND 14-0 or something before LSU blew them out?

I think I moved that Wash/Dal line,,,big LOL. I emptied both barrels on that -7.5. Dallas doesnt want to get anyone hurt in that game. TO already wasnt going to play. Those taking Dal need to get a good performance from the dallas back ups and that could certainly happen. They will be loose and probably throw deep a lot and who knows fake punts and pretty much anything. I still like wash by 2-3 TDs.

[mofome]

Originally Posted by SBR_John

I remember that well Img! I think the whole forum was pulling for you and wasnt it quickly ND 14-0 or something before LSU blew them out?

I think I moved that Wash/Dal line,,,big LOL. I emptied both barrels on that -7.5. Dallas doesnt want to get anyone hurt in that game. TO already wasnt going to play. Those taking Dal need to get a good performance from the dallas back ups and that could certainly happen. They will be loose and probably throw deep a lot and who knows fake punts and pretty much anything. I still like wash by 2-3 TDs.

lsu went out 14-0
it was 14-7 after 1
nd tied 14-14
the rest is history.

easy win vs nd in the bowls. it was great.


btw, any thoughts on who your next POC may be?

[imgv94]

John,

Dallas has really sucked in Week 17 the past couple of seasons..

06 lost to Lions 39-31 (-12)
05 lost to Rams 20-10 (-11)

[McBa1n]

Not one to ever say anything is a lock or game of the century - but it's always Manning's Colts vs the Broncos. If there's ever been a lock of locks, that's always been it.

That's a lot of chalk on the Skins, sheesh.
They're probably good, though.

[mofome]

Originally Posted by McBa1n

Not one to ever say anything is a lock or game of the century - but it's always Manning's Colts vs the Broncos. If there's ever been a lock of locks, that's always been it.

That's a lot of chalk on the Skins, sheesh.
They're probably good, though.

how about favre 0-9 in dallas. brutal.

[jackpot269]

Originally Posted by mofome

how about favre 0-9 in dallas. brutal.

Just WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Now that is a stat!

[mofome]

well done John!!

[imgv94]

Great call SBR John.. Easy cash

[SBR Lou]

Good stuff John, nice winner.

[SBR_John]

Thanks guys. If you're a Dallas backer you have to be concerned about their running game.

For Wash backers is there anything left in the tank?

[remmy358]

Originally Posted by SBR_John

Thanks guys. If you're a Dallas backer you have to be concerned about their running game.

For Wash backers is there anything left in the tank?

they have "pro bowler" marion barber..what a joke that is...he isn't even good, yet a pro bowler.

[tblues2005]

nice call SBRJohn, I had them also yesterday, I thought they would win easily and they did.

[mofome]

Originally Posted by SBR_John

Thanks guys. If you're a Dallas backer you have to be concerned about their running game.

For Wash backers is there anything left in the tank?

the skins were flying around after the game in the locker room, this is a team playing with passion that wnot be matched. another team could obviously beat them, but no one will play harder in these playoffs than the skins will for taylor. the guys are in a zone right now....seattle wont beat'em.

[SBR_John]

Originally Posted by mofome

the skins were flying around after the game in the locker room, this is a team playing with passion that wnot be matched. another team could obviously beat them, but no one will play harder in these playoffs than the skins will for taylor. the guys are in a zone right now....seattle wont beat'em.

That would probably be everyones early break down. But under the surface there are a few other things to consider. Did the Skins leave it all on the field JUST to make the playoffs? The Seahawks have a big time coaching advantage and a west coast home field.

[remmy358]

Originally Posted by SBR_John

That would probably be everyones early break down. But under the surface there are a few other things to consider. Did the Skins leave it all on the field JUST to make the playoffs? The Seahawks have a big time coaching advantage and a west coast home field.

i believe the skins are for real. they remind me of the ravens of 2000. nasty defense, good running game, qb that won't blow it.

[SBR_John]

I have another GOC. I think Arkansas -7.5 is a steal and that line could edge up to near double digits. EC has a good defense but will not be able to handle the weapons Arkansas will continually attack them with.

Good luck!
-9 finger John

[B1GER1C828]

yo john, whats going on in ur avatar? I watched that episode of SNL but wondering y u put it as ur avatar...lol

Im 2-0 with my game of eternity and game of the millienium. Pretty good.

[SBR_John]

Originally Posted by B1GER1C828

yo john, whats going on in ur avatar? I watched that episode of SNL but wondering y u put it as ur avatar...lol

Im 2-0 with my game of eternity and game of the millienium. Pretty good.

I really have to change that. Yea, that was a priceless skit.

I love bowl season. I'm working on these games seems like day and night.

[SexyMit]

Originally Posted by SBR_John

I have another GOC. I think Arkansas -7.5 is a steal and that line could edge up to near double digits. EC has a good defense but will not be able to handle the weapons Arkansas will continually attack them with.

Good luck!
-9 finger John

I think you are on to something... I have eyeballed this game also!