Quote:
Originally Posted by jjgold
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The major problem with this being that (like all simple money line to spread converters I've seen), it's not very good.
The issue is that there's a lot more to look at other than just spread when calculating a money lines (in football for example the total, home vs away, frequency of touchdowns vs. field goals, strength of running game versus passing game, etc). These other factors become increasingly more important as the spread increases in magnitude. The problem is that there just isn't enough data to come up with reasonable statistical meaningful equivalence, hence the nearly worthless spread money line conversions tools that are out there.
I'm working on just one such tool (NBA and NFL) for SBR. I'm hoping it will ultimately be a little better than what's already out there in how it predicts likely scoring distributions (i.e., a
little more intelligently). I was told Bill I was going to have it released a couple of weeks ago, but ... well I just thought it sucked way too hard (much like the smartcapper tool).
My philosophy is that I'd rather release a not totally useless product late than a almost totally useless product early.
Soon though.
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