Bet size adjustment question

roasthawg · 12-10-2007, 07:29 PM

hey guys, i'm sure this question has been asked a bunch before but i just spent a half hour searching the forums and couldn't find what i'm looking for. my question is what is the ideal bet size strategy for a 57% winner. should you start with a certain size bet and stay at that betting size (say $100 a game) or, what seems more intuitive to me, should you pick a percentage of your bankroll (say 2%) and always bet that percentage meaning your betting size will fluctuate with your bankroll? if so, what would be the ideal percentage for a 57% winner...thanks for your time!

Louisvillekid1 · 12-10-2007, 07:32 PM

http://www.drbobsports.com/doc_is_in.cfm#money

Here is a suggestion. . . examples of both

durito · 12-10-2007, 07:51 PM

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Arti...criterion.aspx

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Arti...ed-growth.aspx

roasthawg · 12-10-2007, 08:04 PM

thanks guys, some good info. i guess the best way to wager isn't by percentage but rather a combo of fixed amount and percentage where you can increase your bet after sufficient time but never lower it...makes sense.

roasthawg · 12-10-2007, 08:40 PM

actually now that i thought about it for awhile, all of the examples where the percentage of bankroll system underperforms the standard bet system are set up so that it will turn out like that. if someone is hitting over the break even percentage of bets (52.5% or whatever) i wonder if on average the percentage system isn't better?

Thremp · 12-10-2007, 08:51 PM

Durito's advice is perfect.

Louisvillekid1 · 12-10-2007, 08:59 PM

be careful with kelly dude . . You better becareful not to overestimate a team's chances of winning. . .

purecarnagge · 12-10-2007, 09:00 PM

dumb questions. What should the average bet be for a 500.00 roll?

Thremp · 12-11-2007, 01:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1

be careful with kelly dude . . You better becareful not to overestimate a team's chances of winning. . .

Yeah, but we're answering the question asked. Not a "Well what if I think I'm a 57% winner and am really a 53% winner." In which case a fractional Kelly or including a margin of safety (same effective idea) would work.

roasthawg · 12-11-2007, 11:59 AM

according to kelly a 55% bettor at -110 odds should always bet 5.5% of total bankroll, so the percentage system is better? anyways, thaks for the help guys!