SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks Recommended Books
1. Pinnacle Sports SBR Rating A+ Pinnacle Sports Review
2. The Greek Sports Book SBR Rating A+ The Greek Review
3. BookMaker SBR Rating A+ BookMaker Review
4. BetJamaica SBR Rating A+ BetJamaica Review
5. Legends Sports SBR Rating A+ Legends Review
 
SBR Posters' Poll - September 2009 View Complete Results
1. 5Dimes 253 total points 5Dimes Review
2. Matchbook 252 total points Matchbook Review
3. BetJamaica 194 total points BetJamaica Review
4. Pinnacle Sports 193 total points Pinnacle Sports Review
5. BookMaker 190 total points BookMaker Review
 
 
View New Posts
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
Old 12-06-07, 11:44 AM   #1
Mark Cuban
 
Mark Cuban's Avatar
Default Newbie question

I need to figure a lot out so I am going to start slow and see if you guys can help. I want to bet basketball but don't know where to start. Tonight Dallas plays Denver and the books have the spread at -8 for Dallas. I think Dallas will win by 5 so of course I would bet on the Nuggets with the points at -105, although, I am thinking just betting the winner might be a safer play at -345 for Dallas. The odds on my money aren't as good with the staright bet and the first bet is harder to hit. How do you calculate (or can you calculate) if there is a better way to go? Does this even make sense?

Last edited by Mark Cuban; 12-06-07 at 12:18 PM..
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 12:29 PM   #2
Mark Cuban
 
Mark Cuban's Avatar
Default

I play poker and understand the odds but don't quite get odds or how they are applied save the odds on the money? I don't understand bets like -350. Does anyone bet 350 just to make a hundred? Doesn't really seem like the best odds on the money, but I know it is a safe bet and that's why it could be taken.
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 01:58 PM   #3
HedgeHog
 
HedgeHog's Avatar
Joined: 09-11-07
Posts: 3,925
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

-350 is a steep price to pay for a game that you see as just a 5 point Dallas win. If you liked the Mavs by say 10 or more, then a ML play could make sense. Bet the side you like. Best lines right now are Den +8 Even at 5D and +7.5 +111 at MB. Again my opinion is based on your handicapping of this game.
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 02:03 PM   #4
Mark Cuban
 
Mark Cuban's Avatar
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by HedgeHog View Post
-350 is a steep price to pay for a game that you see as just a 5 point Dallas win. If you liked the Mavs by say 10 or more, then a ML play could make sense. Bet the side you like. Best lines right now are Den +8 Even at 5D and +7.5 +111 at MB. Again my opinion is based on your handicapping of this game.
Thanks hedge, i think I might take the under also. (216) Seems like these guys should be tired.
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 02:16 PM   #5
Tchocky
 
Tchocky's Avatar
Joined: 02-14-06
Posts: 2,119
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

It all comes down to what you think is going to happen and how much you are you willing to risk. Seems like you think Dallas is going to win but won't cover and that it will be a low scoring game. The odds reflect the probability of one thing happening over another. Some guys are heavy chalk eaters and other guys won't place a wager unless they can get better better than even money. My advice would be to forget about this game and quit gambling.
__________________
Always give your best, never get discouraged, never be petty; always remember, others may hate you, but those who hate you don't win unless you hate them, and then you destroy yourself.
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 02:24 PM   #6
Mark Cuban
 
Mark Cuban's Avatar
Default

So your saying that this is a bad game to gamble on? Or that you just think I suck?
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 02:52 PM   #7
icemantbi
 
icemantbi's Avatar
Joined: 07-18-07
Posts: 934
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

At -350, you are risking alot to obtain little. If you think the Mavs win but don't cover, wouldn't it be better to take the Nuggets +8 and risk a lot less? at -350. you have to risk $350 to win a measly $100 bucks. But if you think Denver covers, now you are only risking $100 to win $100 (assuming even money). Obviously, it's more likely that Dallas wins. But if you are eating -350 chalk day in and day out, you have to win close to 80% or so of your wagers to make any profit. And upsets do occur from time to time, so you won't always win a heavy chalked bet.

Hope this helps.
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 03:01 PM   #8
Mark Cuban
 
Mark Cuban's Avatar
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by icemantbi View Post
At -350, you are risking alot to obtain little. If you think the Mavs win but don't cover, wouldn't it be better to take the Nuggets +8 and risk a lot less? at -350. you have to risk $350 to win a measly $100 bucks. But if you think Denver covers, now you are only risking $100 to win $100 (assuming even money). Obviously, it's more likely that Dallas wins. But if you are eating -350 chalk day in and day out, you have to win close to 80% or so of your wagers to make any profit. And upsets do occur from time to time, so you won't always win a heavy chalked bet.

Hope this helps.
This does help and thanks. I did not realize i needed to 80 percent for profit. How did you come up with this number. Is profit only as much as a dollar in this equation.
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 03:08 PM   #9
HedgeHog
 
HedgeHog's Avatar
Joined: 09-11-07
Posts: 3,925
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

Mark, if you are putting up 350 to win 100, then you need to win 78% of your bets to break even. 350/ (350 +100) = .78
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 03:14 PM   #10
Tchocky
 
Tchocky's Avatar
Joined: 02-14-06
Posts: 2,119
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark Cuban View Post
So your saying that this is a bad game to gamble on? Or that you just think I suck?
Any game you are unsure about is a bad game to gamble on. Why risk losing money when you are uncertain about the outcome? When you find yourself having to bet on a game just to have action on a game...that's when you might have a gambling problem. Good luck whatever you choose to do.
__________________
Always give your best, never get discouraged, never be petty; always remember, others may hate you, but those who hate you don't win unless you hate them, and then you destroy yourself.
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 03:14 PM   #11
Mark Cuban
 
Mark Cuban's Avatar
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by HedgeHog View Post
Mark, if you are putting up 350 to win 100, then you need to win 78% of your bets to break even. 350/ (350 +100) = .78
Say Hedge, Is this a sort of universal formula for what it takes to break even? a/(a+b)=c
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 03:17 PM   #12
rm18
Vince Young 1st TD +2000
 
rm18's Avatar
Joined: 09-20-05
Posts: 5,817
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

yes, also I think you should go first half under 111.5, that is what I did, they are projecting 111.5 in the first and 103.5 in the 2nd so take the first half under
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 03:22 PM   #13
Mark Cuban
 
Mark Cuban's Avatar
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tchocky View Post
Any game you are unsure about is a bad game to gamble on. Why risk losing money when you are uncertain about the outcome? When you find yourself having to bet on a game just to have action on a game...that's when you might have a gambling problem. Good luck whatever you choose to do.
I am just trying to figure out some of the science of this stuff and randomly chose a game to use as a for instance. You can never really be sure of any gamble, goes against the definition, but I believe I am beginning to understand what you write about.
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 03:23 PM   #14
MJFtheGenius
 
MJFtheGenius's Avatar
Joined: 05-31-07
Posts: 5,260
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

Sounds like he is just starting, I do not think he has a gambling problem. How much are we talking about wagering here?
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 04:15 PM   #15
Mark Cuban
 
Mark Cuban's Avatar
Default

50 cents
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 04:18 PM   #16
Shark79
Tome Chichi !!
 
Shark79's Avatar
Joined: 11-19-07
Posts: 9,254
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

He bets more than I do
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 04:18 PM   #17
Shark79
Tome Chichi !!
 
Shark79's Avatar
Joined: 11-19-07
Posts: 9,254
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

I smell John Gayfield
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 04:22 PM   #18
Mark Cuban
 
Mark Cuban's Avatar
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shark79 View Post
He bets more than I do
What's a good value for you, if you don't mind me asking?
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 04:38 PM   #19
Shark79
Tome Chichi !!
 
Shark79's Avatar
Joined: 11-19-07
Posts: 9,254
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark Cuban View Post
What's a good value for you, if you don't mind me asking?
I do mind
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 04:42 PM   #20
etothep
 
etothep's Avatar
Joined: 09-14-07
Posts: 778
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shark79 View Post
I do mind
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 05:02 PM   #21
Mark Cuban
 
Mark Cuban's Avatar
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shark79 View Post
I smell John Gayfield
Who is Jon Gayfield? Is he a really great handicapper or is he just your friend?
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 05:14 PM   #22
Shark79
Tome Chichi !!
 
Shark79's Avatar
Joined: 11-19-07
Posts: 9,254
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark Cuban View Post
Who is Jon Gayfield? Is he a really great handicapper or is he just your friend?
Funny you mention handicapper
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 05:18 PM   #23
Mark Cuban
 
Mark Cuban's Avatar
Default

Why, am I missing something?
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 05:35 PM   #24
MJFtheGenius
 
MJFtheGenius's Avatar
Joined: 05-31-07
Posts: 5,260
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark Cuban View Post
50 cents
alright, than even if you do have a gambling problem, only $50 will not be a big deal
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 05:38 PM   #25
Mark Cuban
 
Mark Cuban's Avatar
Default

cool that's what I was hoping, thanks for the support.
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 06:05 PM   #26
MJFtheGenius
 
MJFtheGenius's Avatar
Joined: 05-31-07
Posts: 5,260
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

Yea I am very young compared to everyone else on here, well not everyone lol, I only bet a buck, 3 tops. I am only 19 and when you win it's real fun to make some extra cash and when you lose you can't wait until you win again to get some extra cash, good luck man.
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 06:13 PM   #27
Mark Cuban
 
Mark Cuban's Avatar
Default

It seems to me you probably did a little gaming before your legal age, true?
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 07:14 PM   #28
MJFtheGenius
 
MJFtheGenius's Avatar
Joined: 05-31-07
Posts: 5,260
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark Cuban View Post
It seems to me you probably did a little gaming before your legal age, true?
Yea, with local a little, then online when I was 17. I was with VIP.com for 5 or 6 months until I turned 18, they never verified my age and got payouts no probelm.
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 08:06 PM   #29
Mark Cuban
 
Mark Cuban's Avatar
Default

sweet!
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 10:58 PM   #30
pico
USC ml
 
pico's Avatar
Joined: 04-05-07
Posts: 23,801
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark Cuban View Post
I need to figure a lot out so I am going to start slow and see if you guys can help. I want to bet basketball but don't know where to start. Tonight Dallas plays Denver and the books have the spread at -8 for Dallas. I think Dallas will win by 5 so of course I would bet on the Nuggets with the points at -105, although, I am thinking just betting the winner might be a safer play at -345 for Dallas. The odds on my money aren't as good with the staright bet and the first bet is harder to hit. How do you calculate (or can you calculate) if there is a better way to go? Does this even make sense?
NBA = no bank account.
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 11:15 PM   #31
MJFtheGenius
 
MJFtheGenius's Avatar
Joined: 05-31-07
Posts: 5,260
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by picoman View Post
NBA = no bank account.
yea, NBA is strange, you just can't let it play with your mind and keep trusting what your doing.
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-06-07, 11:58 PM   #32
Mark Cuban
 
Mark Cuban's Avatar
Default Nuggets win, I win, stayed away from the total

paydirt, thanks for help fellas, more for more
Quick reply to this message
 


SBR Featured Videos

Thread Tools
Display Modes



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:01 PM.


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33