[Mark Cuban]

I need to figure a lot out so I am going to start slow and see if you guys can help. I want to bet basketball but don't know where to start. Tonight Dallas plays Denver and the books have the spread at -8 for Dallas. I think Dallas will win by 5 so of course I would bet on the Nuggets with the points at -105, although, I am thinking just betting the winner might be a safer play at -345 for Dallas. The odds on my money aren't as good with the staright bet and the first bet is harder to hit. How do you calculate (or can you calculate) if there is a better way to go? Does this even make sense?

[Mark Cuban]

I play poker and understand the odds but don't quite get odds or how they are applied save the odds on the money? I don't understand bets like -350. Does anyone bet 350 just to make a hundred? Doesn't really seem like the best odds on the money, but I know it is a safe bet and that's why it could be taken.

[HedgeHog]

-350 is a steep price to pay for a game that you see as just a 5 point Dallas win. If you liked the Mavs by say 10 or more, then a ML play could make sense. Bet the side you like. Best lines right now are Den +8 Even at 5D and +7.5 +111 at MB. Again my opinion is based on your handicapping of this game.

[Mark Cuban]

Originally Posted by HedgeHog

-350 is a steep price to pay for a game that you see as just a 5 point Dallas win. If you liked the Mavs by say 10 or more, then a ML play could make sense. Bet the side you like. Best lines right now are Den +8 Even at 5D and +7.5 +111 at MB. Again my opinion is based on your handicapping of this game.

Thanks hedge, i think I might take the under also. (216) Seems like these guys should be tired.

[Tchocky]

It all comes down to what you think is going to happen and how much you are you willing to risk. Seems like you think Dallas is going to win but won't cover and that it will be a low scoring game. The odds reflect the probability of one thing happening over another. Some guys are heavy chalk eaters and other guys won't place a wager unless they can get better better than even money. My advice would be to forget about this game and quit gambling.

[Mark Cuban]

So your saying that this is a bad game to gamble on? Or that you just think I suck?

[icemantbi]

At -350, you are risking alot to obtain little. If you think the Mavs win but don't cover, wouldn't it be better to take the Nuggets +8 and risk a lot less? at -350. you have to risk $350 to win a measly $100 bucks. But if you think Denver covers, now you are only risking $100 to win $100 (assuming even money). Obviously, it's more likely that Dallas wins. But if you are eating -350 chalk day in and day out, you have to win close to 80% or so of your wagers to make any profit. And upsets do occur from time to time, so you won't always win a heavy chalked bet.

Hope this helps.

[Mark Cuban]

Originally Posted by icemantbi

At -350, you are risking alot to obtain little. If you think the Mavs win but don't cover, wouldn't it be better to take the Nuggets +8 and risk a lot less? at -350. you have to risk $350 to win a measly $100 bucks. But if you think Denver covers, now you are only risking $100 to win $100 (assuming even money). Obviously, it's more likely that Dallas wins. But if you are eating -350 chalk day in and day out, you have to win close to 80% or so of your wagers to make any profit. And upsets do occur from time to time, so you won't always win a heavy chalked bet.

Hope this helps.

This does help and thanks. I did not realize i needed to 80 percent for profit. How did you come up with this number. Is profit only as much as a dollar in this equation.

[HedgeHog]

Mark, if you are putting up 350 to win 100, then you need to win 78% of your bets to break even. 350/ (350 +100) = .78

[Tchocky]

Originally Posted by Mark Cuban

So your saying that this is a bad game to gamble on? Or that you just think I suck?

Any game you are unsure about is a bad game to gamble on. Why risk losing money when you are uncertain about the outcome? When you find yourself having to bet on a game just to have action on a game...that's when you might have a gambling problem. Good luck whatever you choose to do.

[Mark Cuban]

Originally Posted by HedgeHog

Mark, if you are putting up 350 to win 100, then you need to win 78% of your bets to break even. 350/ (350 +100) = .78

Say Hedge, Is this a sort of universal formula for what it takes to break even? a/(a+b)=c

[rm18]

yes, also I think you should go first half under 111.5, that is what I did, they are projecting 111.5 in the first and 103.5 in the 2nd so take the first half under

[Mark Cuban]

Originally Posted by Tchocky

Any game you are unsure about is a bad game to gamble on. Why risk losing money when you are uncertain about the outcome? When you find yourself having to bet on a game just to have action on a game...that's when you might have a gambling problem. Good luck whatever you choose to do.

I am just trying to figure out some of the science of this stuff and randomly chose a game to use as a for instance. You can never really be sure of any gamble, goes against the definition, but I believe I am beginning to understand what you write about.

[MJFtheGenius]

Sounds like he is just starting, I do not think he has a gambling problem. How much are we talking about wagering here?

[Mark Cuban]

50 cents

[Shark79]

He bets more than I do

[Shark79]

I smell John Gayfield

[Mark Cuban]

Originally Posted by Shark79

He bets more than I do

What's a good value for you, if you don't mind me asking?

[Shark79]

Originally Posted by Mark Cuban

What's a good value for you, if you don't mind me asking?

I do mind

[etothep]

Originally Posted by Shark79

I do mind

[Mark Cuban]

Originally Posted by Shark79

I smell John Gayfield

Who is Jon Gayfield? Is he a really great handicapper or is he just your friend?

[Shark79]

Originally Posted by Mark Cuban

Who is Jon Gayfield? Is he a really great handicapper or is he just your friend?

Funny you mention handicapper

[Mark Cuban]

Why, am I missing something?

[MJFtheGenius]

Originally Posted by Mark Cuban

50 cents

alright, than even if you do have a gambling problem, only $50 will not be a big deal

[Mark Cuban]

cool that's what I was hoping, thanks for the support.

[MJFtheGenius]

Yea I am very young compared to everyone else on here, well not everyone lol, I only bet a buck, 3 tops. I am only 19 and when you win it's real fun to make some extra cash and when you lose you can't wait until you win again to get some extra cash, good luck man.

[Mark Cuban]

It seems to me you probably did a little gaming before your legal age, true?

[MJFtheGenius]

Originally Posted by Mark Cuban

It seems to me you probably did a little gaming before your legal age, true?

Yea, with local a little, then online when I was 17. I was with VIP.com for 5 or 6 months until I turned 18, they never verified my age and got payouts no probelm.

[Mark Cuban]

sweet!

[pico]

Originally Posted by Mark Cuban

I need to figure a lot out so I am going to start slow and see if you guys can help. I want to bet basketball but don't know where to start. Tonight Dallas plays Denver and the books have the spread at -8 for Dallas. I think Dallas will win by 5 so of course I would bet on the Nuggets with the points at -105, although, I am thinking just betting the winner might be a safer play at -345 for Dallas. The odds on my money aren't as good with the staright bet and the first bet is harder to hit. How do you calculate (or can you calculate) if there is a better way to go? Does this even make sense?

NBA = no bank account.

[MJFtheGenius]

Originally Posted by picoman

NBA = no bank account.

yea, NBA is strange, you just can't let it play with your mind and keep trusting what your doing.

[Mark Cuban]

paydirt, thanks for help fellas, more for more