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Betting Lines and Total points
I'm not a pro gambler. I was just wondering if sports betting is anything like roulette where I have heard it said that you should only bet inside or outside, not both. Do most of you pros follow this same ideology. Do you only bet the line and not the over/under or both.
When applying Roulette to football or basketball it is the same exact thing, a fukkin guessing game. It is 50% chance of winning
Red or Black is the same thing as Team A or Team B.
SBR Founder Join Date: 7/20/2005
Better advice, I think, would be not to play either.Originally Posted by Travis
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/28/2005
O.k. forget the analogy. When you bet basketball or football or whatever, do you generally bet both the total points and the winner?
If you're simply betting for entertainment then it's purely an issue of personal preference. Do whatever makes you happiest just as long as you don't bet more than you can afford to lose.
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/28/2005
So if it is not for just entertainment then it may be different?
Great question i have been trying to beat the bookmakers for a long time now, although im only 22, ive grown up around bookies since i was 2. Here is my knew philosphy that i came up with. I will try to mostly bet a situation in which my team is working for me for the entire length of the game. In other words, i will stay away from totals because teams are not trying to stay under or over the given total. Also big favorites are not trying to cover say 20+ points on a point spread their goal is just to win the game. If you bet an underdog that coach is going to have play calling on your side the entire game. Everyone of us have lost games where teams have choosen to take a knee inside their opponets 5 yard line just to end the game and take the W, without concern of the point spread. And that goes for totals too.
Now im not saying don't play favorites because that's just dumb, if you handicap a game and feel its an extreme mismatch then take your chances of a rout. Also i am never going to play underdogs unless i think they have a chance to win the game straight up. It pointless to take a dog plus big points if you think they are just going to keep it close, because at that point the sight of victory is gone, and they could become uninterested or press really hard to get back into the game and end up forcing too many plays and end up not covering. This is the best way i can see of beating the system because you take all the BS out of it. Im going to start to play more moneyline plays, because look at it this way. Look at this weeks NFL games. Handicap them and pick who you think is going to win each game straight up and make your selections. You will see that a solid handicapper can easily pick 9/10 games correctly out of say 12-13 games. . . Now repeat the process and pick each game ATS and see what your record is. You will find it will decrease dramatically. maybe 6/7 games correct out of the 12/13. . . and that's still over 50% percent what is pretty decent. Next apply the first selections and narrow it down based on value in your top selections. I would like some thoughts from all you guys on this. Thanks
Just to clarify im not saying take just moneylines, however lower points spreads in which if your team wins they most likely cover. Such as PK or under 3 points. Occasionaly lay the wood. Big money lines are not worth it but its not bad on smaller lines.
Also maximize your winnings by betting the games you really like hard(not each week , but throughout the year) This is a marathon, not a sprint. It is always nice to have action on atleast one game each time segment such as in the nfl action at 1,4, and 8. also having action on week night games is always fun too, but this is not a long term winning stragey. Have to enstill disicpline and when at a tough game stay away from it completly, unless you have a huge bank roll and your unit size is so big that 1/4 unit play will not hurt you over time and still give you action, but that is not the case with me.
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