Serious question about unit size

BuddyBear · 01-10-2006, 11:38 AM

For me, every play is a unit....very rarely I make a two unit play (about 5 games all year) but one unit is always my play except of course the 600 unit play I made on Ohio State against ND the other week.

Anyway...all joking aside.....I see people vary their unit size regulary with some games 2 units, 5 units, 10 units...even 94 units....

How do you determine what games merit more units? I just never understood how this worked....how can people justify placing more units on one game over another?

juuso · 01-10-2006, 11:47 AM

For me i go higher stakes with games i have more confidence in. Ofcourse this puts your bankroll under bigger variance and more risk, but the profits can also be higher.

For me normal stake is between 2-6 units on a single game. Rarely i might go up to 10 units. 1 unit representing a 1% of my bankroll.

Razz · 01-10-2006, 12:20 PM

College basketball:

I make almost exclusively 1 unit plays, with occasional 2 units, and a couple 3-unit plays (the only 3* I've had this year covered by 24 points). A 1* play is something where my ratings of the teams show an outcome at least 2.5 points difference to the line, or an accurate line with one team in a positive situation. A 2* or 3* is one where I feel my team has line value and is in a positive situation.

NFL is similar, though there is less regard for motivation. College Football is almost exactly the same.

Winston Smith · 01-10-2006, 12:31 PM

I'm with you BB. Every play is the same size for me.

To me, the "I'm-more-confident-in-this-play" policy doesn't work because, if I'm less confident in a play, I don't make it. I'm confident in every play. That's why I put it in.

mad · 01-10-2006, 01:17 PM

6 inches

MrX · 01-10-2006, 03:47 PM

If you have a mathematically-based handicapping system that reliably predicts your edge on particular bet, then varying bet size is a must in an optimized system. Specifically, using the Kelly Criterion will maximize your bankroll growth. A very valuable read on the Kelly Criterion as it relates to sports betting can be found in "Finding the Edge" by Vancura, Cornelius, and Eadington.

Personally, I have a mathematical system for MLB that predicts my edge on any particular game. I would bet 5 times as much on a game with a predicted 10% edge than one with a 2% edge. When betting money lines, this is actually an oversimplification, how much of a dog or a favorite the bet is also plays a big roll in determining the optimum bet size. As it turns out for me, my largest bets are about 7 or 8 times my smallest ones, but they are pretty rare. The large majority of my bets fall within 3x my minimum bets.

Personally, I have no ability to handicap a game "by feel" or even by visually studying statistics, trends, etc., but I'd imagine that someone having the ability to do so would also have the ability to recognize one betting opportunity that would be more valuable than another, even if they were both good enough to bet. If that's the case, and if your goal is to maximize bankroll growth, then it's correct to bet a higher percentage of your bankroll on the more valuable game.

BuddyBear · 01-10-2006, 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mad

6 inches

lol.

BuddyBear · 01-10-2006, 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Razz

College basketball:

I make almost exclusively 1 unit plays, with occasional 2 units, and a couple 3-unit plays (the only 3* I've had this year covered by 24 points). A 1* play is something where my ratings of the teams show an outcome at least 2.5 points difference to the line, or an accurate line with one team in a positive situation. A 2* or 3* is one where I feel my team has line value and is in a positive situation.

NFL is similar, though there is less regard for motivation. College Football is almost exactly the same.

Razz do you set your own lines?

pags11 · 01-10-2006, 04:27 PM

good thread here guys...with college basketball, I almost always play games at one unit each (about 1-2% of my bankroll for each unit)...I've played two 3 unit games this year and was lucky enough to hit them both...but I usually stick with one unit...makes it less of a roller coaster ride and more of a marathon...

BigD · 01-10-2006, 04:30 PM

When I was with a local it was always timers of 5 so a 10 timer would be 50 bucks, until I started using and offshore did it become units and it seems every has a different meaning for it but I still equate it to a dollar value

Razz · 01-10-2006, 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BuddyBear

Razz do you set your own lines?

I have an actual line, a public line, and a predicted Vegas line. Normally the Vegas line is pretty much halfway in between the other two.

BigD · 01-10-2006, 04:46 PM

I grabbed this off another site

A unit is the base amount that you either risk or expect to win on games. Most sites that record units won/lost use the following system. In a straight wager where your unit is $100 at odds of -110, you must risk $110 to win $100. Thus you are risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit. The units won/lost would then just be a summary of all the bets, weighting, and odds.

So, in your example of 3.86 units, someone with a betting unit of $100 would be up $386. Basically that is a way to allow discussion of bets and weighting without getting into the actual dollar amounts of individual bettors

bigboydan · 01-10-2006, 05:13 PM

it all depends on what type of info i have on a certain game.

RamblinRoyce · 01-10-2006, 07:27 PM

I think the General Standard is 1 unit is 1/100th or 1% of your bankroll. A disciplined bettor wages 3 units maximum on a single bet, a true gambler wages 10 units maximum per bet, and an addict wages up to 50 to 100 units per bet. I'm usually a 5 max unit bettor, but when i'm drunk, i'm somewhere between a gmabler and an addict. if you're smart, stick to 3 units max bets. of course when you get to rolls of $500, it's hard for people to make $15 bets and feel like they're really wagering any money. so I think you're roll should be around $5k before you should follow the units system. I'ts hard to follow cuz i still like making HUGE bets on some Games, but after being burned many, many times and losing a large chunk of change...i'm learnin to follow units...and it's slow and painful cuz it's great to double your roll in 4 hours, but it REALLY sucks to lose it all in 4 hours... i think most experienced and winning bettors take the slow and steady approach, and wager 5 units max per bet...

mad - dirty, dirty dawg...2 funny

spanky · 01-10-2006, 08:22 PM

1 unit with a local bookie used to be $5.00 or some bookies used the word times.a 10 time bet would be $55.00 with the 10% vig or juice.

BuddyBear · 01-10-2006, 10:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrX

If you have a mathematically-based handicapping system that reliably predicts your edge on particular bet, then varying bet size is a must in an optimized system. Specifically, using the Kelly Criterion will maximize your bankroll growth. A very valuable read on the Kelly Criterion as it relates to sports betting can be found in "Finding the Edge" by Vancura, Cornelius, and Eadington.

Personally, I have a mathematical system for MLB that predicts my edge on any particular game. I would bet 5 times as much on a game with a predicted 10% edge than one with a 2% edge. When betting money lines, this is actually an oversimplification, how much of a dog or a favorite the bet is also plays a big roll in determining the optimum bet size. As it turns out for me, my largest bets are about 7 or 8 times my smallest ones, but they are pretty rare. The large majority of my bets fall within 3x my minimum bets.

Personally, I have no ability to handicap a game "by feel" or even by visually studying statistics, trends, etc., but I'd imagine that someone having the ability to do so would also have the ability to recognize one betting opportunity that would be more valuable than another, even if they were both good enough to bet. If that's the case, and if your goal is to maximize bankroll growth, then it's correct to bet a higher percentage of your bankroll on the more valuable game.

Good post Mr.X...welcome to SBR. Can you elaborate a bit on you obtain a mathematical edge via your mathematical system? Thanks