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Public %
I think this is the most overated tool being used in capping since the advent of this type of information being widely available.
However, I'd still like to take a peak at accurate #'s just for fun after I place a wager to see if I'm with the Joes or Vinnys.
Is there anywhere that this is possible? I know places where I can find them, like SB.com, covers, and Carib but I'm not sure how truthful this is.
Sportsinsights.com also. Every year someone thinks they've found a new system that will finally give them the edge, but you'll find you'll go around 51/49 longterm. People were thinking public % would win them money 30 years ago, and it's as much of a crock now as it was then. Hard work, getting the best #s, and money management are the only way to win longterm, and even then it ain't easy. GL...
Free public betting chart:
http://www.thespread.com/nfl-footbal...-betting-chart
If you bet every game with (or against the public) then you are missing the point of why knowing where the public is putting their money is (or can be) useful.
After you handicap the games, independent of knowing where the public is going, then you can to look at the lines and how they are set and see how the public is reacting. Why? Read this article and decide for yourself.
http://www.winnersedgeonline.com/point-spread-made.html
If you agree or don't agree, fine, but knowing where the public is going can be a tool for you to use as a handicapper. Using the public numbers as a crutch is there for lazy handicappers who like to fade the public and go with the home dog because it is a simple system to use. However, like any simple system it has its successes and failures.
Knowing where the smart money is is not simply a matter of looking where the public is going, and sometimes Vinny actually goes with where Joe is putting his money. Finding where the smart money is playing can be a combination of many things (line moves, various tout play combinations, handicapping contest consensus plays, alleged steam moves, book leans....), and I profess I still have many questions as to decide where it really is. Remember, Vinny is not always correct where he puts his money as well.
If anyone has a clear cut method of determining where "smart" money plays it would be a nice thing to know; however, simply looking at a public betting chart is not always the way to go.
BB is correct, do your own homework, use good money management principles, and look around at SBR forum and other forums for info regarding the games, and you still will have a hard time cracking 54% and making a profit.
GL.
Last edited by jon13009; 11-28-07 at 06:18 PM.
i let the public % sway me sometimes, just last week, i loved Georgia from the beginning of the week, but the day before the game i was glancing over all my picks to see what the public was doing, and Georgia had well over 90% on them but the line had barely moved, by Sat morning i think it finally moved 2-3 points, but with that many people on them and barely a movement by friday, i layed off the play, of course they covered.
i've just always been superstitious like that. when i see more than 80% one way and not much movement or a reverse movement, like 60%+ on a dog but the fav line keeps getting higher, those things make me take a second look.
like someone pointed out, the bad thing is you don't know how much money is actually going each way, just the number of bets, you might have 75-80% on team X playing $10-50 and 20-25% on team Y playing $5000-10000, so its hard to know exactly where the so-called "sharp" money is.
I just read an article Robert Ferringo wrote, he said early steam moves in college football this season, you would be up if you faded the public, he said only 2 weekends this season have had early steam moves cover.
None are accurate and sat is useless in handicapping
SBR Founder Join Date: 7/20/2005
highly unlikely since all of the percentages on each site tend to be around the same number.Originally Posted by jjgold
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